Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

Sanibel · #401 Postby **Sanibel** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:31 pm

If you'll notice, on the southern edge there's a cleaving into the center with a trailing tail of convection going into the newly forming center. This second tighter center is the sign of the system strengthening.

rockyman · #402 Postby **rockyman** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:32 pm

Wow! IR is getting very impressive...let's hope an LLC is not forming under that convection! If you watch the IR loop from this morning, you can see the shear suddently "turn off" ...watch the clouds streaming across Central America toward the system suddenly get "blocked and deflected" right at the Caribbean coastline

Extremeweatherguy · #403 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:32 pm

IMO, I think the most likely place for this to affect is between Matagorda Bay, Texas and Pensacola, FL. We will know more though when and if this develops.

#404 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:32 pm

The next 3-5 hours will be key as too whether it goes on to develop or not IMO. If the deep convection persists into this evening I think we have a TD/TS come tomorrow.

ConvergenceZone · #405 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:33 pm

PTPatrick wrote:For what its worth, I am not seeing that mcuh warming of the cloud tops...still some reds present on the last one I saw.

anyone got a good sat picture for this?? with perhaps some loopage?

Thanks!

Dusty

PTPatrick · #406 Postby **PTPatrick** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:33 pm

Hush your face Treasure! My folks like 3 miles from the AL/MS line and lost it all in Katrina...

JK...I am afraid for them too, but I am not going to really worry until this gets going. This could still be a "puff, where'd she go" storm by the evening.

Extremeweatherguy · #407 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:34 pm

I am VERY surprised this is not already an invest.

flyingphish · #408 Postby **flyingphish** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:35 pm

Anyone want to take a guess as to when the Invest is declared ? I am thinking around 5pm today.

stormtruth · #409 Postby **stormtruth** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:36 pm

PTPatrick wrote:Well guys, Debby already did Dallas...

good one

#410 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:36 pm

this won't puff...

and I hope for amny already devastated areas that I am gorging on crow tomorrow morning!!!

#411 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:37 pm

Noting the absence of any large outflows? A deep area of convection such as this should have sent outflows racing outwards.

I do now see turning near 14n 79.5w and another line of convection forming southward from it.........

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

#412 Postby **HollynLA** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:37 pm

I am also very surprised this hasn't been declared an invest yet. I wonder why since it definitely is something that needs to be investigated. I'm sure we'll hear something at 5 though.

Sanibel · #413 Postby **Sanibel** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:38 pm

We won't know until we confirm the center is under the main convection.

It is possible the center is that surface rotation moving into Nicaragua and this is the sheared reflection of it.

Outflow suggests underneath, but I've seen better systems poof before.

Extremeweatherguy · #414 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:39 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Noting the absence of any large outflows? A deep area of convection such as this should have sent outflows racing outwards.

I do now see turning near 14n 79.5w and another line of convection forming southward from it.........

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

yes, you are correct. Usually non-tropical areas of convection spit out MANY outflow boundaries. This one, however, is not. This is a good sign it is organizing.

FlSteel · #415 Postby **FlSteel** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:39 pm

Right now this appears to be an area worth watching. If convection hangs on till tomorrow and does not die this evening we may have something. Not holding my breath yet though.

Extremeweatherguy · #416 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:40 pm

Sanibel wrote:We won't know until we confirm the center is under the main convection.

It is possible the center is that surface rotation moving into Nicaragua and this is the sheared reflection of it.

Outflow suggests underneath, but I've seen better systems poof before.

yeah, your right. Chris is a good example of that. The only difference though is that this one does not have as unfavorable of an environment.

#417 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:40 pm

Debby will be retired.

#418 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:42 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Noting the absence of any large outflows? A deep area of convection such as this should have sent outflows racing outwards.

I do now see turning near 14n 79.5w and another line of convection forming southward from it.........

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
yes, you are correct. Usually non-tropical areas of convection spit out MANY outflow boundaries. This one, however, is not. This is a good sign it is organizing.

The Lower level flow was east to west, since this deep burst of convection I have not seen any strong outflows race outwards toward Nicaragua as should have been the case. That usually means a LLC is developing in this situation.

WmE · #419 Postby **WmE** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:44 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Debby will be retired.

Hopefully not!

ConvergenceZone · #420 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:48 pm

what's the current moving direction of this blob?? Anything in the gulf that will protect the gulf states from this SHOULD it develop?

Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

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