Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[Bailey1777]

North cenral Gulf would not be Houston.

[rockyman]

Actually, that's not what Wxman wrote...he said south Texas into Mexico or North Central to NE Gulf....

same thing isn't it.

North Central Gulf = Houston, TX to Pensacola, FL.

NE Gulf = Key west, FL to Pensacola, FL.

South TX and north Mexico = Corpus Christi, TX down to past the border.

Pretty much the only gap in there is between Corpus and Freeport.

I'm not sure if this is an "official" designation...but I would not call Houston "north central" nor would I call Key West "NE Gulf"...

Here is my thinking of those designations:

North Central...Morgan City to Pensacola
NE Gulf...Pensacola to Cedar Key

[carve]

Will the NHC come out with somthing on this at 5 p.m.?

[miamicanes177]

they might mention it and say "slow development is possible".

[miamicanes177]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

[Extremeweatherguy]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

ok, I am on the verge of bashing the NHC for this. They must be crazy.

This thing looks better than many other invests over the last few months! I think it deserved to at least be mentioned!

[chris_fit]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

[PTPatrick]

are you kidding me...was he Late for sunday dinner or what?

[wxman57]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

Maybe their satellite feed is out? Or "if we ignore it, it will go away" may be their thinking. Tried that with 91L and it looked like a TD for 3 days. I'll never figure those guys out. I know most of them. They must see the developing storms in a favorable environment.

[Bailey1777]

See what I mean downplaying it big time. Is there anything or not? So many opinions but the NHC acts like it is absolutely nothing.

[bob rulz]

Hopefully at the next one.

Hey, it's only 6 hours away; we can wait, can't we?

[Cyclenall]

If this gets into the Gulf of Mexico, ....I think everyone knows by now, just look at the image:

Link: http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just don't know how they couldn't see this:

[Dean4Storms]

Must be going to give it to this evening to see if the convection persists and/or deepens. We've had alot of false possible's this season and it isn't such a bad idea to give it to 11pm to see if the deep convection persists before mentioning it.

[skysummit]

Must be going to give it to this evening to see if the convection persists and/or deepens. We've had alot of false possible's this season and it isn't such a bad idea to give it to 11pm to see if the deep convection persists before mentioning it.

Right Dean. The convection seems to be dieing down at the moment. If we get another flare later or tonight, they may mention it at 11.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Still though, they mention things that arn't even expected to develop all the time...why not mention this?

[Thunder44]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

Maybe their satellite feed is out? Or "if we ignore it, it will go away" may be their thinking. Tried that with 91L and it looked like a TD for 3 days. I'll never figure those guys out. I know most of them. They must see the developing storms in a favorable environment.

Perhaps they just think it's transient. It may just fizzle it out later this evening, like the GOM cluster of storms did the other day, that I wouldn't suprise me. Looking at surface obs there doesn't appear to any surface circulation at all and there isn't any inflow coming into the system.

[Cyclenall]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

I can't believe they didn't say anything. They talk about a system that has no chance at forming but then nothing when there is something that has a better chance. I don't understand it either.

[Stormavoider]

Maybe all the smart guys took the weekend off because things were quite.

[skysummit]

Maybe they didn't mention it since it's being enhanced by nontropical characteristics right now?