Hurricane Ioke thread

[Cyclenall]

Is it just me or do I already see tight spiral banding forming on Ioke?

No, I see signs of rapid strengthening or at least fast strengthening. Thankfully, forecaster Nash wrote the next discussion which is good because I like his discussions. It's 45 knots now and it's going to become a hurricane tomorrow.

[Cyclenall]

I checked the image on the NRL for Ioke and he had signs of RI as I said before. He reminds me of Hurricane Bud from 2006 East Pacific season. I checked 20 minutes later, an eye had poked out. This is now a hurricane IMO due to the eye and the sharp turning like Bud.

I hope the CPHC starts whipping out special discussions.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like one around a tightly packed cdo...Nice banding I would also say this is about 65 knots.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes this is a hurricane right now IMO. Lets see if it can top Elle 2002.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/avn-l.jpg

[WmE]

Yeah it's looking like a hurricane, but I doubt the CPHC will issue a special advisory because no land is threatened. However, Bud got one. We'll see!

[Jim Cantore]

To have a system develop in the CPAC is impressive, to have such a well-developed system in the CPAC is astonishing!!!

umm.....

[WindRunner]

And a vis image with an eye feature clearly forming:

[wxmann_91]

umm.....

Iniki formed during a +ENSO, -AMO year, so that storm really isn't astonishing. There were 11 storms in the CPAC basin that year (both storms that formed in the CPAC and EPAC storms that went into the CPAC).

To have formation in the CPAC though, is somewhat rare, especially to have a TS or Cane form, which hasn't occurred since 2002.

[Jim Cantore]

I thought the ENSO dissapated by then?

[Cyclenall]

New % chance of Ioke becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 97% -- 100% (It's not official yet)
Category 2 hurricane: 70%
Category 3 hurricane: 52%
Category 4 hurricane: 10%
Category 5 hurricane: 2%

The GFDL model has been spot on so far.

[wxmann_91]

I thought the ENSO dissapated by then?

My mistake there. However, CPAC hurricanes are much more common in -AMO years than +AMO years (excluding other factors such El Nino), so Ioke here is fairly rare.

EDIT: Just learned that early 1990's were indeed characterized by a steady-state several-year long El Nino that really didn't dissapear until 1995.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at the clearing of the eye and the deep convection wraping around it. I will say its up to 70 knots now. It is going through a IRC.

LINK

EDIT: URL changed to hyperlink to prevent scrolling and angry Storm2kers. -senorpepr

[wxmann_91]

You're right Matt. The outflow pattern for Ioke couldn't be more favorable for RI. TUTT to the northwest, UL anticyclone to the northeast....

FWIW, the GFDL is developing this into a Cat 4 hurricane on the latest run. Not that I trust that solution, of course.

[Jim Cantore]

I thought the ENSO dissapated by then?

My mistake there. However, CPAC hurricanes are much more common in -AMO years than +AMO years (excluding other factors such El Nino), so Ioke here is fairly rare.

EDIT: Just learned that early 1990's were indeed characterized by a steady-state several-year long El Nino that really didn't dissapear until 1995.

We may have one forming now.

[Cyclenall]

FWIW, the GFDL is developing this into a Cat 4 hurricane on the latest run. Not that I trust that solution, of course.

Now that would be amazing! I have never tracked a hurricane in the centeral Pacific let alone a major one.

Looking at the clearing of the eye and the deep convection wrapping around it. I will say its up to 70 knots now. It is going through a IRC.

It's indeed clearing and getting more round. Could be a large eye once it fully clears. I agree with the strength at 70 knots but what does IRC mean? Do you mean ERC?

[wxmann_91]

Looking at the clearing of the eye and the deep convection wrapping around it. I will say its up to 70 knots now. It is going through a IRC.

It's indeed clearing and getting more round. Could be a large eye once it fully clears. I agree with the strength at 70 knots but what does IRC mean? Do you mean ERC?

I think he means RIC, Rapid Intensification Cycle.

[Jim Cantore]

Looks like he has an eye already on Visible.

[senorpepr]

Looks like he has an eye already on Visible.

You mean it looks like she has an eye already on visible.

Ioke is Hawaiian for Joyce.

[JonathanBelles]

Looks like he has an eye already on Visible.

You mean it looks like she has an eye already on visible.

Ioke is Hawaiian for Joyce.

how does ioki translate to joyce?

[senorpepr]

Looks like he has an eye already on Visible.

You mean it looks like she has an eye already on visible.

Ioke is Hawaiian for Joyce.

how does ioki translate to joyce?

Because it does.

Learn some Hawaiian and you'll understand.