Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

[Trugunzn]

moisture shouldnt be a problom

[Nimbus]

Talk about a broad circulation wow! I don't blame the NHC for holding off till a clear LLC can be determined. Looks to me like the coldest cloud tops are east of where the center should have been. Usually we get frequent convection bursts right over the center when there is a low level circulation over water this warm.

[wxman57]

Talk about a broad circulation wow! I don't blame the NHC for holding off till a clear LLC can be determined. Looks to me like the coldest cloud tops are east of where the center should have been. Usually we get frequent convection bursts right over the center when there is a low level circulation over water this warm.

The NHC mentions disturbances LONG before an LLC forms. Once an LLC forms, it's a depression (or nearly so). I really can't understand why they're completely ignoring this potential threat.

[Nimbus]

Didn't they put in a front line earlier? Maybe that was a clue that they were not sure where the surface low was going to end up?

[carve]

The weather channel completely ignored it saying no developement is expected..

[Dean4Storms]

I see the early signs of convection firing again near the apparent MCS center with the last few visibles before darkness. If it deepens and grows I think we'll have a GOM threat this up coming week.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Someone asked in the previous thread if I thought it would be a storm by the morning. Definitely NOT. It may be an invest by the morning IF convection persists overnight. Systems like this can develop quickly if convection persists. Earliest I could see a TD would be maybe late tomorrow afternoon/evening.

As for movement, I had said that there appear to be two scenarios. Central Mexico (SW Gulf) to TX/MX Border or SE LA to FL. High pressure should be over central to east Texas, so the upper TX coast to mid LA coast may be protected, maybe even farther eastward.

It's really hard to say with any confidence where this might go. Not until it actually forms will I have a better idea. The slower it forms, the more westward it would go.

Isn't it too early to know FOR SURE that TX will be safe though? Or should I just completely stop watching this system and hope that it misses me?

[Dean4Storms]

Someone tell me the last time you remember a spinning MCS in the western Carib. in August with favorable UL outflow that did not go on to develop into a TC?

[Trugunzn]

I think this storm has a very good chance of development with shear not very strong and plenty of moisture. ALso very high heat potential!

[carve]

Hey dean can u tell me why TWC and NHC are ignoring this?Just wondering..Twc barely mentioned it.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think this storm has a very good chance of development with shear not very strong and plenty of moisture!

I wouldn't say not very strong but, it's not over 20kts. It's more like in the 10-20 kt range right now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[Dean4Storms]

Hey dean can u tell me why TWC and NHC are ignoring this?Just wondering..Twc barely mentioned it.

I think its a couple things, we've had several of these systems blow up only to die away and its not near New Orleans.

[curtadams]

I just went to a visible loop on this and zoomed in..yes it seems the thundestorms have weakened...but it looks like there is a definate circulation forming..any comments would be appreciated.

I can see an MLC near 14.5N/80.2W. No evidence of anything at the surface.

Very distinctive on RBG http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html but on RGB it appears to be very young, only apparent on the last few frames. Active convection is in a line to the NE and doesn't appear to be supporting the center. IMO, given the favorable conditions, it's investworthy - I'd certainly like a floater on it.

[carve]

ok..sounds reasonable i guess..(i helped with clean-up after Katrina at Long beach mississippi...never seen so much destruction..the costal area was gone). But this cluster looks pretty good to not even get a mention.

[temujin]

Let me be the first to say:

I think I just saw a wobble.

[Dean4Storms]

I might add, there is now no model support and convection really only took off today. If it persists well into tonight it will get mentioned.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think the spin is because of the convection falling apart. Which makes it appear that there is s turn. In maybe a weak MLC. But the interesting thing is 20 knot decrease in upper level shear right over the system. With 20+ diverences at the upper levels=possible low pressure? I say this is worth watching but nothing for about 24 hours at least. In at that slow devleopment.

[lester]

Let me be the first to say:

I think I just saw a wobble.

oh no lol

[Stormavoider]

It almost looks like a LLC just off the Panama coast.

[SouthFloridawx]

This system should get some help from a tropical wave in the eastern central Caribbean.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...


A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING PUERTO RICO ALONG
67W/68W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE ALL
BY ITSELF REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE CAUSING ANY DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ONE CELL OF STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE WATERS JUST WEST OF
PUERTO RICO RIGHT NOW.