TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Dean4Storms]

LINK

EDIT: URL changed to hyperlink to boost morale and to prevent scrolling. -senorpepr

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

[SouthFloridawx]

Ahh the one off of africa ... intersting.

[CronkPSU]

wow, that didn't take long

[WindRunner]

Dang it . . . I spent too long looking to see if we had a thread for this already! Oh well . . .

Models:
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060821 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060821 0000 060821 1200 060822 0000 060822 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.8N 18.2W 10.8N 20.4W 11.2N 22.3W 12.0N 24.1W
BAMM 10.8N 18.2W 11.1N 20.4W 11.7N 22.3W 12.6N 24.4W
A98E 10.8N 18.2W 11.1N 21.5W 11.2N 24.7W 11.3N 27.5W
LBAR 10.8N 18.2W 11.3N 21.3W 11.8N 24.2W 12.4N 27.2W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060823 0000 060824 0000 060825 0000 060826 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 25.9W 16.7N 30.3W 20.0N 34.9W 22.3N 39.3W
BAMM 14.0N 26.4W 17.3N 31.0W 20.8N 35.7W 23.6N 39.9W
A98E 11.4N 29.9W 12.5N 33.7W 14.3N 37.3W 16.8N 41.7W
LBAR 13.2N 30.0W 16.0N 34.9W 19.9N 39.4W 23.9N 44.3W
SHIP 52KTS 61KTS 61KTS 61KTS
DSHP 52KTS 61KTS 61KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 18.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 15.0W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 11.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


That's a strong TS and a fish.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow that thing looks good...Nice curving into a central area of low pressure forming. Banding. But watch it hit the dry air. COME ON 96L fight show that your not one of the others.

[hurricanedude]

sorta a "fishy" look

[SouthFloridawx]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
GFS is saying fishy but, I'm not believing it at this point. The models will end up trending farther westward.

[Thunder44]

This one looks better than Carribean disturbance. More deserving of an invest right now.

[miamicanes177]

sorta a "fishy" look

just the kind I love

[SouthFloridawx]

Steering flow says to the west with you...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The models love to recurve systems...Really so the Gfs. Like Southfloridawx said the steering flow is west. But we will have to watch the shortwave which will open the weakness between the highs. Also 00z last night pushed this right into a soild 850 to 500 millibar high to its north. I say its more likely this will likely head west or west-northwest with the models trending more westward. We will have to watch for the dry air/SAL.

[caribepr]

Fish sounds excellent to me as well. Go North! Fall apart! Sorry Matt!

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Is that a first??? An invest before it even leaves Afrika?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It think this has a fair chance of falling apart. Thank god for the Central pacific and eastern we would have nothing.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

[WindRunner]

Is that a first??? An invest before it even leaves Afrika?

No . . . there's actually been a TD that formed while still over Africa - back in the 1973, and possibly one other time that I can't remember right now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't think they will ever declare a td over land again. In really so after looking at a repectful system like 93L not being ugpraded. Even so it had shear it still had a strong LLC. I don't see how they would upgrade another over land today.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Is that a first??? An invest before it even leaves Afrika?

No . . . there's actually been a TD that formed while still over Africa - back in the 1973, and possibly one other time that I can't remember right now.

Strange, well, so much for a TC needing warm WATER lol. Could this form before entering the Cape Verde ocean or will it wait till it enters the Atlantic?

[senorpepr]

I don't think they will ever declare a td over land again. In really so after looking at a repectful system like 93L not being ugpraded. Even so it had shear it still had a strong LLC. I don't see how they would upgrade another over land today.

They would if it meets the qualifications of a tropical depression.