Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

[Stormavoider]

Do you see the spot of persistent convection at about 12N 78W? It seems to be anchored there for the past few hours. Could this indicate a surface feature is there??

[Sanibel]

If you look at the last frames of the visible loop you can see a discernable mid-level vortex to the WSW of the main cold top convection. It's just below the level of the Honduras/Nicaragua border. The system did not rapidly develop as it looked earlier. Parr for 2006 this showed robust structure without any substance behind it.

This one is the exception though. After blowing out it still has a visible center with nothing but potential ahead of it. We'll see if it kicks 2006 negativity.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Something is getting invest 96L. Don't know who yet?

[Stormavoider]

Do you see the spot of persistent convection at about 12N 78W? It seems to be anchored there for the past few hours. Could this indicate a surface feature is there??

This ship report supports my theory.
SHIP S 0000 13.70 -78.00 140 124 60 17.5 - - - - - 29.83

[Bailey1777]

Looking for an objective opinion here. I have visited many different sights and you would think this thing doesnt even exist. Is it that bad? Is there really no tropical potential with this? I just don't understand. I realize it's not much right now but nothing to it? Opinions welcomed.

[cycloneye]

Wow,here we are at page 3 of the second thread for an area that has not been mentioned at the Tropical Weather Outlook nor is a invest.It looks like the peeps are hungry for action.

[Dean4Storms]

Never Mind.

I guess this will become Invest 97L, 96L is now taken.

[tropicsgal05]

I went to the NHC site and it shows invest 96L. Matthurricanewatcher, is this what your referring to? It's just not showing which system yet? I'm trying to learn.

[SWFLA_CANE]

This is not the invest, its the wave off of Africa

[Sanibel]

This is a slow cooker. It'll either Chris or form.

[CronkPSU]

Wow,here we are at page 3 of the second thread for an area that has not been mentioned at the Tropical Weather Outlook nor is a invest.It looks like the peeps are hungry for action.

here comes 96L off of africa as well...looks like people will get their taste for action

[Sanibel]

The red-top convection center may have contracted slightly, but it is persisting if you have a good eye.

Watch for a reburst and thickening of the mid-vortex to the SW.

[ROCK]

Someone asked in the previous thread if I thought it would be a storm by the morning. Definitely NOT. It may be an invest by the morning IF convection persists overnight. Systems like this can develop quickly if convection persists. Earliest I could see a TD would be maybe late tomorrow afternoon/evening.

As for movement, I had said that there appear to be two scenarios. Central Mexico (SW Gulf) to TX/MX Border or SE LA to FL. High pressure should be over central to east Texas, so the upper TX coast to mid LA coast may be protected, maybe even farther eastward.

It's really hard to say with any confidence where this might go. Not until it actually forms will I have a better idea. The slower it forms, the more westward it would go.

Isn't it too early to know FOR SURE that TX will be safe though? Or should I just completely stop watching this system and hope that it misses me?

too early to say for sure EWG. WX57 had a lot of "should" "maybe protected" in his scenario. We need some organization and some model support before we can get a really really good idea.....I don't think it would be wise to stop watching.....

[MGC]

Shear will eat this for lunch. There is shear from the Carb Sea all the way to the NGOM. I see a hint of a spin but it might be an illusion because of the way the CB's are forming and then decaying. I agree with the NHC....tropical storm formation is not expected.......MGC

[Sanibel]

Looks more like a wave now. And, yes, the vortex looks like just that, a vortex.

Guess my comment that the models weren't detecting the negativity was right after all.

2006, the year of great satellite fake-outs.

[Bailey1777]

This seems to be a common problem on these threads. You will hear 10 people say shear looks good or shouldn't be a problem and then someone pops up and says shear is bad and will continue to be.

[SouthFloridawx]

This seems to be a common problem on these threads. You will hear 10 people say shear looks good or shouldn't be a problem and then someone pops up and says shear is bad and will continue to be.

Exactly... currently there is 10-20kts of shear over this system. It's not too much an LLC couldn't form but, it's not exactly prime for development.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[Stormavoider]

This seems to be a common problem on these threads. You will hear 10 people say shear looks good or shouldn't be a problem and then someone pops up and says shear is bad and will continue to be.

I think it's more the case that when a storm is in decline the bears come out of the woods.

["Ice"]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT GENERATING ANY DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALONG IT AT THIS MOMENT. PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE ITCZ FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W. LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE THAT CURVES FROM 14N44W TO 17N42W 19N40W 19N36W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. SAHARAN DUST WAS SEEN EAST OF THIS WAVE
IN EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING PUERTO RICO ALONG
67W/68W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE ALL
BY ITSELF REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE CAUSING ANY DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ONE CELL OF STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE WATERS JUST WEST OF
PUERTO RICO RIGHT NOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 20/1800 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS
BASED ON HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS/SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. IT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A MIXTURE OF FEATURES IN IT.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N14W 9N23W 9N32W 9N35W 8N42W 9N47W 8N50W 7N59W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM
12N TO 14N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W
AND 19W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. ALL THIS
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EASILY ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE THAT WILL HIT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 6N TO
10N BETWEEN 30W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND
ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W...AND FROM
6N TO 12N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST OF 20N78W 16N85W...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ABOUND. THE FIRST
LOW CENTER IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N79W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SPREAD OVER FLORIDA FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO SOUTH OF TAMPA
TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS THE SECOND MOST WELL-DEFINED
LOW IN THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE
PASSES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. TO TEXAS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOW CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM NORTHERN GUATEMALA
TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W...
WITH A NOT-SO-WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 80W AND WESTERN CUBA.
OTHER STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CUBA AND ADJACENT
WATERS FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN THE WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF...
FROM A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
THIS LOW CENTER HAD BEEN IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS 24 HOURS AGO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS MIXTURE OF AT LEAST A FEW
FEATURES COMING TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME. REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
FROM 24 HOURS AGO STILL ARE PRESENT. ADD TO THAT SOME MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH PASSES OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO
THE SOUTH OF A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOW CENTER...REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND CURVES SOUTHWARD OVER NICARAGUA
TOWARD COSTA RICA. ADD TO THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
78W/79W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE EVIDENT
AT 20/1845 UTC FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. THE CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED IN MUCH OF THAT AREA SINCE THAT
TIME. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NOW FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W.
OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA STILL IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 26N62W TO
22N64W TO 20N66W. MIDDLE TO MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
MOVES INTO THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 26N62W
22N64W TO 20N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN
51W AND 66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N56W 25N62W 20N66W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF 32N37W 23N50W 15N60W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 33N24W TO A SECOND ONE NEAR 28N30W TO A THIRD ONE NEAR
23N42W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 30N56W
20N66W TROUGH.

$$
MT

[TS Zack]

This seems to be a common problem on these threads. You will hear 10 people say shear looks good or shouldn't be a problem and then someone pops up and says shear is bad and will continue to be.

Sometimes you have to consider the source. Many of us have been here for a few years and can remember the usernames that all said the same thing for other storms. Like I rememeber when the area of disturbed weather North of Hispanola was never going to make it speech. That become Katrina a day later!