Hurricane Ioke thread

[HURAKAN]

IMPRESSIVE!!!

[hurricanefloyd5]

not -removed- but is that an eye??????????????

[senorpepr]

not -removed- but is that an eye??????????????

Nah, it's a pocket of stratocumulus.

[WindRunner]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE IOKE (CP012006) ON 20060821 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060821 0000 060821 1200 060822 0000 060822 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.2N 163.2W 12.4N 165.8W 13.8N 168.2W 15.3N 169.8W
BAMM 11.2N 163.2W 12.2N 165.4W 13.5N 167.7W 14.8N 169.6W
SHIP 65KTS 81KTS 91KTS 94KTS
DSHP 65KTS 81KTS 91KTS 94KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060823 0000 060824 0000 060825 0000 060826 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 170.8W 17.8N 171.1W 18.4N 170.7W 17.0N 169.8W
BAMM 16.0N 171.1W 17.8N 173.1W 19.5N 174.6W 19.7N 176.1W
SHIP 94KTS 88KTS 78KTS 65KTS
DSHP 94KTS 88KTS 78KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 163.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 160.2W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 158.0W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 996MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 60NM


That's a hurricane!

[Extremeweatherguy]

this is only a TS? looks like a hurricane to me.

[Cyclenall]

this is only a TS? looks like a hurricane to me.

It's been a hurricane for 4-5 hours now. They didn't do a special update on Ioke. I'd say it's at 75 knots currently. I'm sure the CPHC won't go that high.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with the 65 knots now. Reasons is that there is a whole over the northeast quad. Which means its not strengthing right now. I see a new burst starting to form over the southeast quad. So we will see.

[willjnewton]

wow, this thing is a hurricane and if this hurricane is in the central atlantic then there is a officially a moderate-strong el nino out there and that is really suck

[Cyclenall]

I agree with the 65 knots now. Reasons is that there is a whole over the northeast quad. Which means its not strengthing right now. I see a new burst starting to form over the southeast quad. So we will see.

What's a "whole"? Do you mean hole?

[whereverwx]

Quite a nice looking hurricane.

[willjnewton]

sorry can someone fix this in the last frase I wrote atlantic but I meant pacific

[WindRunner]

wow, this thing is a hurricane and if this hurricane is in the central atlantic then there is a officially a moderate-strong el nino out there and that is really suck

No, not necessarily, Will. Storms can form in the Central Pacific on non-El Nino years as well, it just isn't as likely. The only thing a CPAC storm truly indicates is favorable conditions (low shear, high SSTs) over the tropical CPAC area. Often this is a sign that it is possible an El Nino event will begin over the next few months, but it is only one of many signs. Nothing is official in terms of ENSO until the equatorial Eastern Pacific heats up.

And Will, you can edit your own posts if you want by using the "edit" button on the right side of your screen. Fix whatever, then hit "submit" once again.

[wxmann_91]

Ah Calamity, I was counting on you posting a loop.

I wish the SSD would change the floaters.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes I said hole. In yes the convection over the southern side could wrap around...

Now 65 knots
6 70 knots
12 75 knots
24 85 knots
36 95 knots
48 95 knots
60 90 knots
72 85 knots
96 75 knots
120 65 knots

[whereverwx]

I wish the SSD would change the floaters.

I wish, too.

[WindRunner]

Wow matt, that's practically identical to the 00Z SHIPS run:

Code: Select all

                    *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *        GOES INPUT INCLUDED                *

                       IOKE        CP012006  08/21/06  00 UTC

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    65    74    81    87    91    94    94    92    88    83    78    72    65
V (KT) LAND       65    74    81    87    91    94    94    92    88    83    78    72    65
V (KT) LGE mod    65    74    81    86    89    91    90    88    84    81    77    73    69



[Cyclenall]

I wish the SSD would change the floaters.

I wish, too.

I wish as well. I was asking where the Floater is for this system and I never got a answer so maybe there isn't one?

[wxmann_91]

I wish the SSD would change the floaters.

I wish, too.

I wish as well. I was asking where the Floater is for this system and I never got a answer so maybe there isn't one?

Oh, there is, they just haven't updated it: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html#pacific

RAMSDIS is still on Hector and GHCC doesn't go so far west; only thing left is NRL and CIMSS. NRL was having troubles with updating its center position, though it finally did at 0130Z. CIMSS only has IR and WV.

I'm still intrigued by the differences in the GFDL and SHIPS. SHIPS has a tendency to overdo shear, whereas the GFDL usually goes gung-ho for no reason.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks impressive for a non-major hurricane.

[Alacane2]

Ioke now at 75 mph



BULLETIN
HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
500 PM HST SUN AUG 20 2006

IOKE HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED INTO A HURRICANE BUT WILL CONTINUE ON A TRACK SAFELY AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 163.8 WEST OR ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU AND ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...11.5 N...163.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER MATSUDA