TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[fci]

Please develop little fishy. But I'm not holding my breath...

I swear, if this one or the carib wave doesn't develop, then nothing will....I've said that about every good looking wave that's fallen apart so far and so far I've been right.... We only get so many opportunities with good looking waves like this....

Don't get so frustrated.
I think there are MANY more that will come.
There are threads up on threads that discuss this....
Lots of opportunities left.

[senorpepr]

By tomorrow, we very well should have Tropical Depression #4 and little Debbie not long after that. 2006 is rolling...

I highly doubt that. I'm willing to do a coke bet on that. It's plenty stable on the eastern portions of any ocean.

Senorpepr...

While I normally wait for persistence before jumping on any development (especially over the east Atlantic knowing how inconsistent conditions can be), the fact that intense convection has just blossomed off the coast has got me thinking this one has a higher than average chance of developing. The system already has that pre-classical developmental signature you see in other areas of the basin and other oceans when development is imminent.

While I wouldn't bet my house on it, I think we're seeing the beginnings of an interesting system poised to possibly strengthen further. We'll see...

Don't get me wrong, I agree it has a pretty good chance at development and it looks pretty impressive at this time for it's location... but what I failed to highlight is the chances of it becoming 04L by tomorrow.

[senorpepr]

By tomorrow, we very well should have Tropical Depression #4 and little Debbie not long after that. 2006 is rolling...

I highly doubt that. I'm willing to do a coke bet on that. It's plenty stable on the eastern portions of any ocean.

Coke bet? You do those, too? We've made "Coke bets" for years where I work. Won a lot of them over the years...

The only problem with this system is it's so far out to sea that the NHC may just ignore it even though it may have a nice spin. Because of the inconsistencies on what the NHC is classifying these days, I won't take your Coke bet.

Oh yeah... coke bets are the best!

Luckily I've won my fair share of cokes than lost over the years.

Back when I was in Germany, we would have several forecasters participating in a "coke bet". We would give a 24 hour and 48 hour forecast on a tropical cyclone's position and intensity. The person with the lowest error won a coke from the rest of the forecasters.

Then, of course, is the snowfall forecast at my current job. Every snowstorm we get, we gather probably 100 or so forecasters and have them forecast the official snow total at the airport and what the water equivalent will be.

[whereverwx]

At the moment, this thing likely has a higher chance of going poof than forming.

[Grease Monkey]

Based on all the others that tried to form this year, I agree.

[Weatherfreak14]

I agree. its going to disappear.. What a magic trick. its getting old

[ConvergenceZone]

At the moment, this thing likely has a higher chance of going poof than forming.

where's the logic in this?? I mean, I can understand your frustration at the others going "poof" and thinking because of this that everything will go "poof"...I know, I feel the same frustration..., but sooner or later, something has to develop where it's not going to go "poof"...so why not now?

[mike815]

then why if it has a real good chance to fall apart would the nhc become interested in it after the last time they must see something.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree. its going to disappear.. What a magic trick. its getting old

Yeah its starting to steam me. Thank god for the central Pacific!

[Grease Monkey]

Nothing has to form. Mother nature can simply have another abortion.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree. its going to disappear.. What a magic trick. its getting old

hmm, so a strong wave just comes off the coast and the atmosphere is more moist than before and you ALREADY think it's not going to develop??


As I told the previous poster, you can't let past "poofs" equate to future "poofs"...

[Weatherfreak14]

Well, most storms this year have looked this impressive and its disspear. Most reason why im sayin this, im not goin to jinkx it. Other times I say devlop, its never happenend.

[Hyperstorm]

No harm taken Senorpepr, I completely understood your point. Any conservatism at this stage is well taken due to the past history of tropical waves in this area. I am generally in that camp as well, especially when it comes to eastern Atlantic systems. It would be interesting to see if the tropical wave research mission is ongoing as we speak.

BTW, on my first post I mentioned something about "pre-classical developmental signature". I meant to say "classic pre-developmental signature". I don't think any one of us know how storms looked way back in the pre-classical age.

[Derek Ortt]

A storm has 0% chance of going poof just ebcause everything else has. It only goes poof because atmospheric conditions dictate this.

I am struggling to understand these types of posts

[mike815]

ME TOO

[SouthFloridawx]

edit

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA.
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

[Weatherfreak14]

Anywaz, Im in the chat room if anyone wants to chat about 96L

[SouthFloridawx]

037
ABNT20 KNHC 210232
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA.
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

No poof going on here....

[Weatherfreak14]

WOW. is that the first vigorous wording they made all season.