TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cpdaman]

temujin it's called HAARP nah that's impossible not with my beloved weather hobby

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Cpdaman that scares me

[temujin]

temujin it's called HAARP nah that's impossible not with my beloved weather hobby

LOL.

I wasn't talking about conspiracy theory stuff. I'm just saying that it's not entirely kooky to predict the future based on the events of the recent past. In fact, all of us do that kind of stuff as part of our daily lives.

While statistics tells you that your chance of getting "heads" from a coin toss is 50% regardless of how many times in a row it's landed on tails, real life is a good bit more complex than that and we have to be careful not to assume that we know all the factors involved in a weather prediction.

[cpdaman]

i know i know i couldn't help it i'll stick with the thread

[MGC]

This is a good looking disturbance. We shall see if it hold together or goes Poof. Would be nice to see at least one CV system this year....MGC

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Thunderstorm activity continue redeveloping!

[SouthFloridawx]

Still no poofing evident.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree this is passing the test. Nice convection over the center. Can't wait to get some new quickscat data and some t numbers.

[bob rulz]

Yes, it's still looking very impressive.

Remember...persistence!

I'd be glad if this developed. I'll worry about where it goes AFTER it's already a tropical storm (if it makes it there, which is a safe bet at the moment).

[storm4u]

Even is this dos become anything i think it will be a fish which is a good thing!!

[storm4u]

Even is this does become anything i think it will be a fish which is a good thing!!

[temujin]

Still no poofing evident.

It's looking great, actually. Not sure I've ever seen one look that good, that close to Africa. Of course, I've only being doing this for about four years, but it really looks good to be that far east.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif

[kevin]

Very impressive. I'm jumping on the developing into a serious storm wagon.

[storm4u]

if it were to be anything it looks like it would be massive!!

[ConvergenceZone]

Even is this dos become anything i think it will be a fish which is a good thing!!

Fish is fine with me, at long as we have something to track!!! Then again, way way to early to call a fish as ALOT can happen/shift in the atmosphere between now and then.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like a developing tropical cyclone if you ask me.
Updated image and I'm going to bed... nite folks.

[Rieyeuxs]

The big question is how much SAL it's going to drag off with it?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a strong depression if not a weak tropical storm. That thing looks very good. Nice inflow in all. Maybe 5am the nhc writes Advisorie on it?

[bob rulz]

I don't see a single frame where it looked worse than the one before in that loop, and it looks like its curving to the southwest away from the SAL.