NHC Director Max Mayfield: Atlantic Bell About to Ring

[btangy]

Genesis Index from CIRA for the tropical Atlantic is really spiking indicating a fairly high probability of genesis in the C and E Atlantic in the next couple days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/tatfpr.gif

[Stormcenter]

Mayfield expressed puzzlement as to why the season hasn't been a little more active.

"We're actually not sure why some of these are not developing," he said.


Interesting last two sentences from him about the inactivity of the season until now.

I find this interesting because the possibility in there then that this "inactivity" may continue throughout the remainder of the season for the most part except for a few storms here and there.
Anyway, if Max doesn't know the answer then maybe there isn't one.

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks for the link to that... I lost it for some reason.

[Stormcenter]

I'd have to see it to believe it. 2006 seems to be marching to it's own beat and I see no reason that will change.

I agree 100% with your post!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Stormcenter]

I'd have to see it to believe it. 2006 seems to be marching to it's own beat and I see no reason that will change.

you seen no reason it will chance? How about conditions are becoming more favorable and we are heading into September? 2 very good reasons that it will change....The signs are there, so yes, there's plenty of reasons to believe it will change.

Oh I believe it will change and we will have some storms but not to the extent (numerous storms)that we did last season. As someone else posted I have to see it to believe it. Anyway, remember it only takes ONE storm.

[Robjohn53]

I think that for all the times thease things were trying to start and got ripped to peices and with all the other conditions out there that has been stoping them, i think if i was Steve L or Max i'd be not saying to much just yet as well. As far as things getting active soon, i have a gut feeling that when it dose it just might make up for lost time so look out. All My Hurricane Supplies Is Staying Right Here And Ready. Not far enough in the season to be calling this a done deal yet...

[george_r_1961]

Mayfield expressed puzzlement as to why the season hasn't been a little more active.

"We're actually not sure why some of these are not developing," he said.


Interesting last two sentences from him about the inactivity of the season until now.

thats hard to believe he said that. even we on the board here can say dry air, african dust and shear have killed development so far

Not hard to believe at all. This is not an exact science. I will also believe Mayfield before I believe someone on a message board who consistently is negative about tropical development year after year.

[rainstorm]

but then why does the nhc put out forecasts saying conditions are "highly unfavorable" for development? they must know shear, dry air, and dust have caused no canes so far. we have read that from the pro's on the board here many times this season. read some of air force mets very informative posts. i have to think mr mayfield is saying he doesnt know why there has been so much shear, dry air, and dust.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't think Max meant it the way alot of you guys are taking it. I'm sure he's very aware that the UL winds and dry air have been the highest contributing factor to disrupting TC development thus far. What he's saying is that he's not sure why they both were so disruptive and strong to this point, much like most of us. All the indications early this season were pointing toward a very busy season with ENSO- neutral, warm SST's, e.t.c.... and yet the tropics have been boring to say the least thus far.

[canegrl04]

I think the last forecast for the season was too generous.Based on the season so far,I think we will only see 6 named storms(hurricanes).Even though 1992 gave us Andrew,it was an inactive year overall.

[george_r_1961]

but then why does the nhc put out forecasts saying conditions are "highly unfavorable" for development? they must know shear, dry air, and dust have caused no canes so far. we have read that from the pro's on the board here many times this season. read some of air force mets very informative posts. i have to think mr mayfield is saying he doesnt know why there has been so much shear, dry air, and dust.

I do not know what you are getting at Helen. Conditions HAVE been highly unfavorable for development and only in the past day or two have they become more favorable over the eastern Atlantic(right on schedule) Forecasting the overall synoptic pattern is difficult at best; its a wait and see game.

[vacanechaser]

but then why does the nhc put out forecasts saying conditions are "highly unfavorable" for development? they must know shear, dry air, and dust have caused no canes so far. we have read that from the pro's on the board here many times this season. read some of air force mets very informative posts. i have to think mr mayfield is saying he doesnt know why there has been so much shear, dry air, and dust.

do you think that is all there is to it???? just dust shear and dry air??? it drives me up a wall to think that someone on a message board has all the worlds weather, and conditions figured out while the expert sits thumbing his nose clueless... there are so many different variables to it, you dont know the half... maybe you should call max and say hey, i have the answers... i just dont think it as easy or cut and dry you might think.. not to mention they have access to other parameters and data we might not see...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Jim Cantore]

Dry air and sheer is only scratching the surface.

[rainstorm]

but then why does the nhc put out forecasts saying conditions are "highly unfavorable" for development? they must know shear, dry air, and dust have caused no canes so far. we have read that from the pro's on the board here many times this season. read some of air force mets very informative posts. i have to think mr mayfield is saying he doesnt know why there has been so much shear, dry air, and dust.

do you think that is all there is to it???? just dust shear and dry air??? it drives me up a wall to think that someone on a message board has all the worlds weather, and conditions figured out while the expert sits thumbing his nose clueless... there are so many different variables to it, you dont know the half... maybe you should call max and say hey, i have the answers... i just dont think it as easy or cut and dry you might think.. not to mention they have access to other parameters and data we might not see...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

have you read some of the posts from the pros's here?

[Lindaloo]

rainstorm, you need to stop baiting and causing trouble. Thanks.

[vacanechaser]

yes i have... so whats your point.?? think they know it all?? well, then maybe the wrong people are running the show in miami... if we knew everything there is to tropical forecasting and weather in general, then we should have no problem making a 5 day or 15 day forecast... we, they, dont know it all.. there are too many pieces to the puzzel.. and if max is uncertain as to why, then there is something other than dry air and dust to the equation... i respect the pros here, but when it comes to the tropics, i will listen to max


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

['CaneFreak]

I second that....

Todd Ferebee
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[mike815]

great point

[fci]

I think that Max knows the reasons why the storms have not developed but not the "causes" of the reasons why and how long they have persisted.

Plus, being that he is talking to the General Public, I don't think he would want to get too "scientific" about it. The General Public is not going to understand, nor probably WANT to understand about SAL , sheer and dry air.

Let's all remember that NO ONE knows exactly why weather happens and when it will happen. All they can do is study it and try to figure it all out; or at least as much as Mother Nature will alllow us to understand!