TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[temujin]

I don't see a single frame where it looked worse than the one before in that loop, and it looks like its curving to the southwest away from the SAL.

Yup, this thing is looking bigger and better in each frame... and as you said, moving SW.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Atlatnic is powering up with a real cape verde. This is something we did not have last year. Nice convection around the core with nice LLC. Now lets wait for the t numbers and quickscat data.

[ThunderMate]

what time will they be coming in?

[wxmann_91]

The big question is how much SAL it's going to drag off with it?

See for yourself in the loop below. It seems to me that there is some SAL it's dragging off, but not too much. The recent SAL outbreak and its effects have now propogated far enough from the wave.

Click to animate.



I would not be surprised to see a TD tomorrow.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think 06z for T numbers.

[bob rulz]

I think 06z for T numbers.

That's in half an hour right?

[Cyclenall]

I sure hope this becomes a tropical depression soon because it would end the boredom of no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. There would also be a decrease in the season cancel posts which is a plus.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

IMO this is already a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm. Most likely near 30 to 35 knots. Nice inflow moving into it with deep convection bombing over it. The last system I seen do this is Ivan,Frances,Isabel.

[brunota2003]

Looks like a strong depression if not a weak tropical storm. That thing looks very good. Nice inflow in all. Maybe 5am the nhc writes Advisorie on it?

nope...NHC doesnt start advisories at 5 AM normally...typically wait for daylight so first they can look at the visibles, then will decide around 11 AM...however that is just how I have seen them do it...nice looking wave...I do have a nonrelated question though...has anyone ever seen the NHC start writing advisories at 5 AM?

[Cyclenall]

Looks like a strong depression if not a weak tropical storm. That thing looks very good. Nice inflow in all. Maybe 5am the nhc writes Advisorie on it?

nope...NHC doesnt start advisories at 5 AM normally...typically wait for daylight so first they can look at the visibles, then will decide around 11 AM...however that is just how I have seen them do it...nice looking wave...I do have a nonrelated question though...has anyone ever seen the NHC start writing advisories at 5 AM?

I think this year for Tropical Storm Aletta in the Eastern Pacific they started writing advisories at 5 am.

[clfenwi]

Looks like a strong depression if not a weak tropical storm. That thing looks very good. Nice inflow in all. Maybe 5am the nhc writes Advisorie on it?

nope...NHC doesnt start advisories at 5 AM normally...typically wait for daylight so first they can look at the visibles, then will decide around 11 AM...however that is just how I have seen them do it...nice looking wave...I do have a nonrelated question though...has anyone ever seen the NHC start writing advisories at 5 AM?

Old discussions follow NOT CURRENT don't get excited



ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST FRI AUG 04 2000

THE STRONG TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE BASED ON A 0657Z TRMM OVERPASS AND A DELAYED 0600Z
SHIP REPORT OF OF 45 KT AND 1007.8 MB JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I am pretty sure it has happened since then (I had the same thought/question earlier this year so I've looked it up before... gimme a few minutes and I'll find the most recent ocurrence).

SLIGHTLY LATER AS PROMISED:

SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004

...CORRECTION TO AWIPS AND WMO HEADERS...END IN 5 INSTEAD OF 1...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR BERMUDA CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED
AND IS BEING IDENTIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM. THIS IS BASED ON
THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTER AS SHOWN ON A
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT AND ALSO ON THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL COLD LOW OVER THE SURFACE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET AT
40 KNOTS BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS AND A RECENT SHIP REPORT. THE
DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CENTER AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...NICOLE COULD TRANSITION INTO A
TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE FORECAST IS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR A
DAY OR TWO UNTIL THE STORM MERGES WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 365 NMI SOUTHWEST OF
THE AZORES ISLANDS HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND IN
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE TO BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TEN. AT 09/00Z...SHIP FQFM LOCATED 120 NMI NORTH...AND SHIP FQWZ
LOCATED 140 NMI EAST...OF THE CENTER REPORTED 20-KT SURFACE WINDS
AND SEAS RANGING FROM 13-19 FEET. BOTH REPORTS WERE OUTSIDE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...A 08/2131Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED
25-30 KT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. BASED ON
THIS INFORMATION AND A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT
FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Careful readers will note that the binding thread for these occurrences was observations from ships in the vicinity.

[temujin]

Looks like a strong depression if not a weak tropical storm. That thing looks very good. Nice inflow in all. Maybe 5am the nhc writes Advisorie on it?

nope...NHC doesnt start advisories at 5 AM normally...typically wait for daylight so first they can look at the visibles, then will decide around 11 AM...however that is just how I have seen them do it...nice looking wave...I do have a nonrelated question though...has anyone ever seen the NHC start writing advisories at 5 AM?

They'll do it any time the situation warrants. If the storm is this far away, they might be slower to write an advisory than if it were in the Gulf of Mexico. But they'll do it any time they please... 11am, 5am, 2 am, 1:35am, whatever they feel is necessary and appropriate.

[whereverwx]

Well, the Cape Verde region is 3 hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time, if I recall correctly. So, I guess it is possible for them to upgrade things at 5 am, if it’s far east enough and in view on the visible.

[brunota2003]

interesting...however I do note that in each of those advisories they had ship reports...has this area had some yet? and yes I know they will upgrade at any time of the day...but it is way out there ATTM and will most likely just simply watch it to see if convection stays in one area...and chances are, unless Quikscat shows a LLC or ship reports come in, they will wait until they have visible images to decide to upgrade...or at least I would...as you can probably tell, I have been gone all day and dont feel like going back and reading over everything...

[cpdaman]

mabye they are waiting till noon to see if it goes "poof"

[temujin]

interesting...however I do note that in each of those advisories they had ship reports...

That's a good observation. I doubt they'd be in a hurry to upgrade the thing, as it's not an imminent threat to anything but fish and ships.

[clfenwi]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 9N-16N E OF 21W TO JUST INLAND
OVER AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 31W-42W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE 10N16W-6N24W...FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 34W-41W...WITHIN 120
NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 41W-50W...AND FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN
50W-56W.

TWD is out early this morning... comment is from the ITCZ section

[calculatedrisk]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 9N-16N E OF 21W TO JUST INLAND
OVER AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 31W-42W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE 10N16W-6N24W...FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 34W-41W...WITHIN 120
NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 41W-50W...AND FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN
50W-56W.

TWD is out early this morning... comment is from the ITCZ section

I don't think we should completely write off the earlier wave at 31W-42W.

[clfenwi]

00Z GFDL runs the system to the west-northwest for the duration...

WHXX04 KWBC 210526
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 21

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.1 17.7 275./15.9
6 11.4 18.3 304./ 6.4
12 11.9 19.7 288./14.7
18 12.4 20.8 293./11.6
24 13.0 22.1 294./14.2
30 13.3 23.5 282./14.1
36 13.7 24.7 291./12.0
42 14.3 25.8 298./12.3
48 15.1 26.8 307./12.8
54 15.9 27.8 307./12.0
60 16.8 28.9 310./13.6
66 17.6 29.9 310./13.3
72 18.6 31.1 309./14.5
78 19.5 32.5 302./16.3
84 20.0 33.9 292./13.4
90 20.6 35.0 298./12.4
96 21.1 36.3 294./13.0
102 21.9 37.7 298./14.7
108 22.7 39.1 299./15.6
114 23.3 40.4 296./13.5
120 24.0 41.7 298./13.2
126 24.6 43.1 293./14.5

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

I don't think we should completely write off the earlier wave at 31W-42W.

That wave is picked up well by the Canadian and in the Vicinity of the Bahamas in 5 days. http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation
And apparently the UKMET by the Early morning hours of Tuesday though it looses it by Thursday.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 00/80.html