TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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clfenwi
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#141 Postby clfenwi » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:05 am

WHXX01 KWBC 210658
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060821 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060821 0600 060821 1800 060822 0600 060822 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 19.3W 12.5N 21.4W 13.4N 23.4W 14.6N 25.4W
BAMM 12.0N 19.3W 12.6N 21.6W 13.6N 23.6W 14.9N 25.7W
A98E 12.0N 19.3W 12.6N 22.1W 13.1N 24.9W 13.7N 27.5W
LBAR 12.0N 19.3W 12.7N 22.1W 13.7N 24.8W 14.8N 27.4W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060823 0600 060824 0600 060825 0600 060826 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.1N 27.5W 19.3N 31.8W 22.0N 35.7W 23.7N 39.4W
BAMM 16.6N 27.9W 20.0N 32.2W 23.1N 36.1W 25.3N 40.0W
A98E 14.9N 29.9W 17.2N 34.8W 20.2N 39.5W 23.3N 44.4W
LBAR 16.1N 29.8W 19.2N 34.4W 22.5N 39.3W 25.9N 43.7W
SHIP 51KTS 58KTS 59KTS 59KTS
DSHP 51KTS 58KTS 59KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 19.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 16.7W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 13.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For those wondering about what intensity the 00Z GFDL was forecasting, it brings the system up to about a category two hurricane: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
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#142 Postby calculatedrisk » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:06 am

Pretty impressive. I had to save that SAT image!

Image
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#143 Postby Meso » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:59 am

530 AM EDT MON AUG 21 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.
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#144 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:53 am

its enlongated....will it gather its self up?
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#145 Postby sgastorm » Mon Aug 21, 2006 5:45 am

Isn't NASA conducting an experiment on waves moving off the coast? I would guess NHC would be allowed access to that data.
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#146 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 21, 2006 5:51 am

It's weird the way the whole basin "flashes on" positive suddenly. Is it an MJO shift? NAO influence? Atmospheric change? God forbid it was something like Methane Mikes EMF's? (LOL)
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#147 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 5:54 am

Looking at sat pic this morning this one looks like it actually got a little better organized during the overnight hours. Looks more promising for TC development than other CV waves this season.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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#148 Postby tropicana » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:15 am

I'm so afraid to get excited too early.
:grrr:
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#149 Postby tropicana » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:18 am

I'm so afraid to get excited too early.
:grrr:
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storms in NC
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#150 Postby storms in NC » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:36 am

It will not make it. None that have liked good coming off the AF coast didn't ever make it. Don't see why this one would. JMO
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#151 Postby Meso » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:43 am

Cause more models picked up on this than the waves before, and it's later into august ? I think It has a pretty good chance..
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#152 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:45 am

storms in NC wrote:It will not make it. None that have liked good coming off the AF coast didn't ever make it. Don't see why this one would. JMO


On the contrary by looking at visible loops on NRL this morning, it already looks like a TD.
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#153 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:48 am

Wow I just woke up this morning and still no poofing.
Image
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#154 Postby mike815 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:49 am

WOW LOOKIN GOOD AND YEP no poof
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#155 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:53 am

It's possible to confirm a LLC or we are just seen an open wave.
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#156 Postby skysummit » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:04 am

storms in NC wrote:It will not make it. None that have liked good coming off the AF coast didn't ever make it. Don't see why this one would. JMO


Ummmm....maybe because we're now getting into the Cape Verde season? Just a hunch.
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#157 Postby WindRunner » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:04 am

Sanibel wrote:It's weird the way the whole basin "flashes on" positive suddenly. Is it an MJO shift? NAO influence? Atmospheric change? God forbid it was something like Methane Mikes EMF's? (LOL)


There has been a MJO shift, though the wet phase just barely reaching the EATL now. I don't think the NAO is up to anything really shocking, so it probably just has to do with +MJO occuring as we approach peak season.

But my guess is as good as yours. :wink:
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#158 Postby tgenius » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:06 am

At what point does quicksat run to see the wind around the invest? I'm curious at what point NHC would consider upgrading to a TD... 96l is looking pretty healthy this morning.
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#159 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:09 am

It looks a little elongated not rounded.The front wave looks more rounded.

Image
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#160 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:11 am

cycloneye wrote:It looks a little elongated not rounded.


That's why I was asking if this was still an open wave.
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