TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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NONAME
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No this is what Jeff Masters Said It appear to be a Depression not that it is one read More Carefully
A very strong tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa Sunday. The NHC and Navy have a system where they officially designate a disturbance as an "invest"--something worth investigating. This storm is called 96L, and if there were hurricane hunters within range, they would fly the storm, as the system already appears to be a tropical depression. However, NHC typically hesitates to label these systems fresh off the coast of Africa depressions until they hold together for at least a day. Many such systems fall apart within their first day over water. The waters under the wave are 27-28 C, which is .5-1.5 degrees C above the 26.5 C threshold for tropical cyclone formation--not great, but good enough. Wind shear is a low 5-10 knots. There is a large area of dry air and Saharan dust to the wave's north, and this will likely be a major inhibiting factor for this wave once it moves north of 15 N latitude.
The wave is impressive on satellite imagery this morning--low level spiral banding has formed, and there is a clear low-level rotation of the clouds. There is also some upper-level outflow developing on the east side. We don't have a recent QuikSCAT pass to judge the surface winds. The GFS, NOGAPS, and GFDL models develop the wave into a tropical storm; the UKMET does not. I expect that the model consensus is correct--this system will be Tropical Storm Debby by Wednesday. All the models predict that the storm will pass well north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The storm may bring tropical storm conditions to the Cape Verde Islands Tuesday and Wednesday, as it moves west or west-northwest at 15 mph just south of the islands. Although it is too early to be certain, the Cape Verde Islands will probably be the only land areas the storm will affect. The preliminary model runs point to a track that will eventually recurve the storm out to sea before affecting any other land.
Sea surface temperatures cool to below the 26.5 C threshold tropical systems prefer north of the Cape Verdes Islands, so once the system moves north of about 15 N latutide, it may weaken. There is also a lot of dry air and Saharan dust to the north that will cause trouble for it. The GFDL model does intensify the storm to a Category 1 hurricane, then weakens it as the dry air and cooler SSTs take their toll.
Link http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... commenttop
A very strong tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa Sunday. The NHC and Navy have a system where they officially designate a disturbance as an "invest"--something worth investigating. This storm is called 96L, and if there were hurricane hunters within range, they would fly the storm, as the system already appears to be a tropical depression. However, NHC typically hesitates to label these systems fresh off the coast of Africa depressions until they hold together for at least a day. Many such systems fall apart within their first day over water. The waters under the wave are 27-28 C, which is .5-1.5 degrees C above the 26.5 C threshold for tropical cyclone formation--not great, but good enough. Wind shear is a low 5-10 knots. There is a large area of dry air and Saharan dust to the wave's north, and this will likely be a major inhibiting factor for this wave once it moves north of 15 N latitude.
The wave is impressive on satellite imagery this morning--low level spiral banding has formed, and there is a clear low-level rotation of the clouds. There is also some upper-level outflow developing on the east side. We don't have a recent QuikSCAT pass to judge the surface winds. The GFS, NOGAPS, and GFDL models develop the wave into a tropical storm; the UKMET does not. I expect that the model consensus is correct--this system will be Tropical Storm Debby by Wednesday. All the models predict that the storm will pass well north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The storm may bring tropical storm conditions to the Cape Verde Islands Tuesday and Wednesday, as it moves west or west-northwest at 15 mph just south of the islands. Although it is too early to be certain, the Cape Verde Islands will probably be the only land areas the storm will affect. The preliminary model runs point to a track that will eventually recurve the storm out to sea before affecting any other land.
Sea surface temperatures cool to below the 26.5 C threshold tropical systems prefer north of the Cape Verdes Islands, so once the system moves north of about 15 N latutide, it may weaken. There is also a lot of dry air and Saharan dust to the north that will cause trouble for it. The GFDL model does intensify the storm to a Category 1 hurricane, then weakens it as the dry air and cooler SSTs take their toll.
Link http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... commenttop
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Josephine96
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miamicanes177
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The question you've got to ask yourslef is that if this was in the gulf or just to the eas tof the USA would it be upgraded, the answer would probably be yes I dare say!
Mind you I think the NHc will wait till we have got proof that we've got a closed LLC and thats not been confirmed yet.
Mind you I think the NHc will wait till we have got proof that we've got a closed LLC and thats not been confirmed yet.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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miamicanes177
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brunota2003
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if it was in the gulf or close to the US we would have Recon fly in and tell us...KWT wrote:The question you've got to ask yourslef is that if this was in the gulf or just to the eas tof the USA would it be upgraded, the answer would probably be yes I dare say!
Mind you I think the NHc will wait till we have got proof that we've got a closed LLC and thats not been confirmed yet.
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MississippiHurricane
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DESTRUCTION5
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Hybridstorm_November2001
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I agree with Masters; this baby is at least a TD, if not a weak TS already. What a difference a day makes in the Tropics, is all I can say.
Last edited by Hybridstorm_November2001 on Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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storms in NC
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 21, 2006
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A broad area of low pressure has formed within a vigorous tropical
wave about 260 miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands in the
eastern Atlantic Ocean. Although shower and thunderstorm activity
has recently decreased... the low pressure area remains well-
organized and a tropical depression could form during the next day
or two as the low moves west-northwestward near 15 mph. Interests
in the Cape Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Tuesday.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Franklin
Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 21, 2006
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A broad area of low pressure has formed within a vigorous tropical
wave about 260 miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands in the
eastern Atlantic Ocean. Although shower and thunderstorm activity
has recently decreased... the low pressure area remains well-
organized and a tropical depression could form during the next day
or two as the low moves west-northwestward near 15 mph. Interests
in the Cape Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Tuesday.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Franklin
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beachbum_al
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storms in NC
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