TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Thunder44 · #261 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:30 am

Weatherfreak14 wrote:

Looks organized to me

That image is from 8am this morning. Look at the NRL site and do some loops.

I still believe the system can develop but I don't understand why the convection has decreased so much. It seems this season that many waves and disturbance are struggling to develop convection.

#262 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:31 am

Some convection is trying to develop in the northern side of the system.

#263 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:31 am

Looks like a depression to me.

#264 Postby **Buck** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:32 am

Yes looks very good.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

HurricaneMaster_PR · #265 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:34 am

Keeps looking good, but I was more impressed by the last image than by this one...

http://image.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg

*edited by staff to make the image clickable - was so large, you had to scroll to read each line on the page

Weatherfreak14 · #266 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:35 am

I would say a TD for me. Whats the reason why NHC hasent classified it yet. it looks very healthy.

Derek Ortt · #267 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:35 am

There is a very strong SAL just north of this system. Any motion to the nroth, will result in a repeat of last weeks invest.

A TD could form, but I do not see muh more unless this moves farther west

Canal watcher · #268 Postby **Canal watcher** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:36 am

The SST is hot enough but hope it just goes into the dust & :eek:

the Shear!

Acral · #269 Postby **Acral** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:39 am

Looks real good, and I am pretty sure that the SAL to the north of it should be fading later this week.

#270 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:41 am

Acral wrote:Looks real good, and I am pretty sure that the SAL to the north of it should be fading later this week.

I wouldn't get my hopes up for that to happen. It has been there all summer. But I have to say not as bad as it was a month ago.

Derek Ortt · #271 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:43 am

SAL dees not fade

It is stirred up by these strong waves and kills any that come off a bit too far north

#272 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:43 am

Derek Ortt wrote:There is a very strong SAL just north of this system. Any motion to the nroth, will result in a repeat of last weeks invest.

A TD could form, but I do not see muh more unless this moves farther west

I would have to agree with Derek on this one. If it moves farther north it may be choked off by the Saharan Dust and cooler SST's. If it remains on a more westerly course it will run into less dust and warmer SST'S.

x-y-no · #273 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:45 am

12Z GFS run is just beginning to come out ...

It initializes a 1012mb low SE of the Cape Verdes and carries it WNW into the southern part of the islands in 24 hours. Deepens it to 1008mb by 30 hours as the system leaves the islands, still heading WNW.

Don't think I buy that much of a northerly component right away.

EDIT: Back up to 1012mb at 36 hours.

Epsilon_Fan · #274 Postby **Epsilon_Fan** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:45 am

I don't have much confidence in these things developing lately... I don't know if it can make it out of the Central Atlantic. But again, we have to have a Cape Verde storm eventually and maybe this one will break the ice?

Weatherfreak14 · #275 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:46 am

yes, as I was saying earlier it should be on a W to WNW track

#276 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:48 am

I don't understand the comment about the change in models, now not turning it north??? Can you post a before/after comparison to help illustrate?

Loop of SAL from NRL shows it the dust moving west, with no new dust coming off the coast of Africa.

Someone a few pages back (sorry, I can't find it now) made the comment the board is going to get really busy. That's TRUE! Let's try to post pics, models, observations, and theories backed up by SOMETHING (besides warm fuzzy feelings or cold anxiety), and refrain from all the 'me too' and 'I agree' type posts. What if all 8000 members did that? Or even 1%, 80? We would all give up trying to read a thread!

Thanks. :wink:

#277 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:49 am

x-y-no wrote:12Z GFS run is just beginning to come out ...
It initializes a 1012mb low SE of the Cape Verdes and carries it WNW into the southern part of the islands in 24 hours. Deepens it to 1008mb by 30 hours as the system leaves the islands, still heading WNW.
Don't think I buy that much of a northerly component right away.

I would have to agree... Currently there is no weakness in the ridge and until that point we should be looking at a WNW movement for the next 24-72 hours.

What is expected to weaken the ridge a Mid-Upper Level trough?

This is all going to depend on the intensity of this system. If it develops quickly it will move more northerly trying to find the weakest point in the ridge in the mid to upper levels.

If it remains a depression or just a mid to low level weak storm, we should see a more westerly component.

I'm not a huge fan of saying which way it goes before it even develops. It is way to early. I have seen time and time again of these systems in the tropics where all the models indicate northward motion fairly quickly that never comes to surpass.

I think untill there is a weakness in the ridge we'll see the models trend farther and farther west.

Weatherfreak14 · #278 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:52 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:
x-y-no wrote:12Z GFS run is just beginning to come out ...
It initializes a 1012mb low SE of the Cape Verdes and carries it WNW into the southern part of the islands in 24 hours. Deepens it to 1008mb by 30 hours as the system leaves the islands, still heading WNW.
Don't think I buy that much of a northerly component right away.

I would have to agree... Currently there is no weakness in the ridge and until that point we should be looking at a WNW movement for the next 24-72 hours.

What is expected to weaken the ridge a Mid-Upper Level trough?

This is all going to depend on the intensity of this system. If it develops quickly it will move more northerly trying to find the weakest point in the ridge in the mid to upper levels.

If it remains a depression or just a mid to low level weak storm, we should see a more westerly component.

I'm not a huge fan of saying which way it goes before it even develops. It is way to early. I have seen time and time again of these systems in the tropics where all the models indicate northward motion fairly quickly that never comes to surpass.

I think untill there is a weakness in the ridge we'll see the models trend farther and farther west.

If this continues to happen will this be a threat to US east coast in the future?

Thunder44 · #279 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:55 am

x-y-no wrote:12Z GFS run is just beginning to come out ...

It initializes a 1012mb low SE of the Cape Verdes and carries it WNW into the southern part of the islands in 24 hours. Deepens it to 1008mb by 30 hours as the system leaves the islands, still heading WNW.

Don't think I buy that much of a northerly component right away.

EDIT: Back up to 1012mb at 36 hours.

At 60 hours it's already moving north of 20N

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Hurricaneman · #280 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:56 am

I dont think so, but it could threaten bermuda in the long run, but its so many days away, so we should just keep monitoring

TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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