Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

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Stormavoider
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#101 Postby Stormavoider » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:29 am

Thunder44 wrote:Westerly Shear looks to be increasing again this morning. Now 20kt to 30kts:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

The flare-up seeems to be cause by divergence aloft. Not much low-level convergence is present in this system. It will be hard to get a LLC to form that way.


This shear is noticable. It doesn't look that bad though.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal
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tailgater
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#102 Postby tailgater » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:31 am

Stormavoider wrote:Wind is getting up.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

Pressures are also are up, nothing at the surface, just T -storms ATTM.
Although there does seem to be some mid-level vorticity.
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#103 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:36 am

I agree with Thunder44. There's nothing in the surface flow pattern to show this is anything other than divergence-caused convection.

You do have to watch anything that persists in this area though.
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#104 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:47 am

I think we are grabbing at air here. I don't see anything there at moment as the NHC. I know things can pop up quickly during this time of the season but it just doesn't have the same look to it this season as previous active seasons. It's hard to describe. Anyway, it's still early and things can and probably will change for the worse later this month (not much left) or next month.
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#105 Postby MGC » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:52 am

Our attention should be focused on the CV wave......MGC
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#106 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:54 am

Sanibel wrote:I agree with Thunder44. There's nothing in the surface flow pattern to show this is anything other than divergence-caused convection.

You do have to watch anything that persists in this area though.


Exactly. At this point, it's something to keep half an eye on just because it's a big ball of thunderstorms in the Caribbean and there's nothing obvious to tear it apart should it start to develop.

But lacking any vorticity and any low-level convergence, it's not an imminent problem.
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#107 Postby Stormavoider » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:57 am

MGC wrote:Our attention should be focused on the CV wave......MGC

Do you think they need me on that thread?
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#108 Postby tailgater » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:58 am

MGC wrote:Our attention should be focused on the CV wave......MGC

I'll start watching it in about a week if there's anything left to watch, this T-storm complex could effect some landmass in a day or two. So my attention will stay here for a little longer. :)
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#109 Postby MortisFL » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:58 am

Yeah its dealing with 20-30 kt shear, but its heading towards more favorable areas to its north. Just a watch and see what happens over the next 48 hours. Shear forecasts look relatively light
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#110 Postby skysummit » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:59 am

tailgater wrote:
MGC wrote:Our attention should be focused on the CV wave......MGC

I'll start watching it in about a week if there's anything left to watch, this T-storm complex could effect some landmass in a day or two. So my attention will stay here for a little longer. :)


Same here...my priority is what's closest to affecting land masses. The CV wave has its own thread so those who wanna continue to watch the Carribean, feel free. That's why this thread is here.
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#111 Postby Johnny » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:03 am

Our attention should be focused on the CV wave......MGC



If that's the case, what are you doing in this thread? :lol:
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#112 Postby beachbum_al » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:05 am

Because MGC lives along the Gulf Coast and probably like most people along the Gulf of Mexico we are watching this to be on the safe side. :D
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#113 Postby Rieyeuxs » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:10 am

Funnily enough, in reading through the area discussions today, the B'ham one is the only report that even mentions Gulf activity, and they all but dismiss it. I guess developmental chances must be sliding downhill fast.

DGEX IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY MODEL FORECASTING ANY TROPICAL ACTIVITY
IN THE GULF. SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND DISREGARD THIS SOLUTION
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. A COLD FRONT MAY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY AS
IT APPROACHES NORTHERN ALABAMA BUT THIS IS BEYOND THE CURRENT TIME
FRAME.
[/b]
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#114 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:44 am

Strange in that we should be seeing some strong outflows headed westward, but I see none.
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#115 Postby MortisFL » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:46 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Strange in that we should be seeing some strong outflows headed westward, but I see none.


Once it establishes itself, it hangs around for awhile. Lets see if it fizzles later this afternoon like it did yesterday or remain intact.
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#116 Postby Stormavoider » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:50 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Strange in that we should be seeing some strong outflows headed westward, but I see none.

Is it the shear from the west preventing this?
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#117 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:15 am

Stormavoider wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Strange in that we should be seeing some strong outflows headed westward, but I see none.

Is it the shear from the west preventing this?



No, the shear is up around 30,000 ft or so. We should see lower level cumulous being forced outward from the downburst outflows as you get with any deep TStorm.
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#118 Postby hial2 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:23 am

[quote="Rieyeuxs"]Funnily enough, in reading through the area discussions today, the B'ham one is the only report that even mentions Gulf activity, and they all but dismiss it. I guess developmental chances must be sliding downhill fast.

At a week or so from the anniversary of "K", it's a good thing that nothing in the Gulf seems to be developing at this time..and hopefully the rest of the season..
Although I enjoy tracking storms, I rather see them develop close to Africa, that way they have a better chance of "fish".

No one, and I mean no one anywhere from the east coast to Mexico needs a storm of any category this year..or any other for that matter..

Just my opinion and fervent hope of a record breaking season for the least number of storms on record...
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#119 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:37 am

From Accu-Weather regarding this wave, pretty much what we've been stating.


A tropical wave we are keeping an eye on is over the west and southwest Caribbean. It is located along 86 west and south of 20 north and it is tracking to the west-northwest at 10-15 knots. As the upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico continues westward, a ridge of high pressure will build and may allow for marginally favorable conditions. At this point, much of the southern extent of the wave is inland over central America, but there are some thunderstorms southwest of Jamaica that need to be watched if they persist.
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#120 Postby fwbbreeze » Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:06 pm

here is a weather station at West Bay, Grand Cayman. Pressures are falling in the area, however this could be a daily occurance. Anyways, something to keep an eye on.

http://www.arnold-net.com/weather/

fwbbreeze
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