Hurricane Ileana in EPAC Thread

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cycloneye
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#21 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:47 am

Image

Looks like is moving towards TD status and that can occur this afternoon or evening..
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#22 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:55 am

TD10-E soon if not already...
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#23 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:44 am

It looks very good. I expect a TD within 12 hours.
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#24 Postby WmE » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:47 am

This says it all!


:darrow:
Last edited by WmE on Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:48 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#25 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:47 am

ABPZ20 KNHC 211618
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HECTOR...CENTERED ABOUT 1280 MILES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.

SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE
FORMING FROM A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND
CONTINUES... ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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#26 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:54 am

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#27 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:56 am

I think we can all agree on one thing, it's that this will be a depression sometime today if not already. It's very organized and I have to agree with the NHC on a TD forming.
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#28 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:06 pm

I expect this one to become a TD by tonight.
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#29 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:09 pm

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#30 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:14 pm

its now td 10-E
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#31 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:36 pm

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 211747
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE A FEW
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS BECOME
BETTER-ORGANIZED. CURVED BANDING FEATURES AROUND THE CENTER HAVE
BECOME BETTER-DEFINED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING. A
SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AT 1645 UTC FROM TAFB WAS 2.0... 30
KT AND SUPPORTS INITIATING ADVISORIES. STEADY INTENSIFICATION
APPEARS LIKELY WITH LITTLE FORECAST SHEAR AND WARM WATERS ABOVE
29C. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL
WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE THAN THE GFDL WHICH TAKES 4 DAYS TO
MAKE THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 305/9. MIDDLE-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... FORCING THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE GUIDANCE...THOUGH THEY ARE SOMEWHAT CLUSTERED IN TWO
GROUPS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MORE RIDGING THAN OTHER MODELS AND
ARE FASTER AND MORE TO THE WEST. THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE EAST BUT STILL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS NO GOOD REASON TO LEAN ON ONE CLUSTER MORE THAN THE
OTHER SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1800Z 12.8N 102.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 13.3N 103.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 14.3N 105.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 15.5N 107.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 17.0N 109.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 113.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 26/1200Z 24.0N 120.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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#32 Postby P.K. » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:05 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 211859
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA (EP102006) ON 20060821 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060821 1800 060822 0600 060822 1800 060823 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.6N 102.8W 13.3N 104.7W 14.5N 106.8W 16.0N 109.2W
BAMM 12.6N 102.8W 13.4N 104.8W 14.4N 107.0W 15.6N 109.6W
LBAR 12.6N 102.8W 13.6N 104.6W 14.9N 107.1W 16.5N 110.0W
SHIP 35KTS 49KTS 63KTS 74KTS
DSHP 35KTS 49KTS 63KTS 74KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060823 1800 060824 1800 060825 1800 060826 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.4N 111.8W 19.9N 116.6W 21.5N 120.5W 22.4N 124.0W
BAMM 16.8N 112.3W 18.9N 117.1W 20.5N 120.8W 21.8N 124.1W
LBAR 17.9N 112.8W 20.7N 117.7W 23.2N 121.0W 21.7N 123.1W
SHIP 83KTS 87KTS 74KTS 57KTS
DSHP 83KTS 87KTS 74KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 102.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 101.0W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 99.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 100NM
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#33 Postby WmE » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:16 pm

Rapid deepening??
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#34 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:17 pm

Already? :eek:
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#35 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:26 pm

Image

Ileana is organizing very quickly and may be a hurricane in less than 36 hours.
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#36 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:40 pm

Wow the tropics sure came alive today!!!

Ioke, Ileana and Debby!
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#37 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Wow the tropics sure came alive today!!!

Ioke, Ileana and Debby!


Hey,not so fast with Debby. :)
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#38 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:46 pm

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
200 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CURVED BAND FORMING IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LARGE SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. A 29 KT WIND REPORT WAS
ALSO RECEIVED FROM SHIP ELTZ7 A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. WITH THE IMPROVING
SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND DT NUMBERS AT 2.5 OR ABOVE... AT LEAST
35 KT... THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON IS BORN.

CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM ILEANA IS EXPANDING IN ALL DIRECTIONS...
ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGES INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS LIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM PROVIDING EASTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW... AND CONSEQUENTLY LIGHT SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST ILEANA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE... A
FAVORABLE SPOT FOR FUTURE INTENSIFICATION... FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION... RATHER WARM WATERS GREATER THAN 29C
ALSO LIE ALONG THAT TRACK. THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THESE
CONDUCIVE PARAMETERS BY INTENSIFYING ILEANA TO HURRICANE-STRENGTH
IN A LITTLE OVER 24 HOURS AND 88 KT IN 60 HOURS... JUST ABOUT AS
FAST AN INTENSIFICATION AS THE STATISTICAL MODEL CAN PRODUCE. THIS
PROJECTION MAY NOT BE UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE EASTERN PACIFIC RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX WHICH SHOWS A 73% CHANCE OF A 25 KT OR MORE
INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
SHIPS AND SHOWS RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY A MORE MODEST STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. WEAKENING IS
SHOWN AFTER 72 HOURS BECAUSE OF THE SYSTEM PASSING THE 26C
ISOTHERM.

THE INITIAL HEADING IS ABOUT 300 AT 10 KT. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE STORM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH SOME SMALL DISAGREEMENTS. THE GFDL...
WHICH HAD BEEN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... HAS SHIFTED
LEFTWARD... LIKE THE GFS. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THOUGH ALL MODELS STAY OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.
SINCE THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE HAVE SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY AND
REPRESENTATIONS OF THE CYCLONE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE... A TOUCH SOUTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ENLARGED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGE
SIZE OF THE SYSTEM DOCUMENTED FROM SATELLITE AND SHIP REPORTS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 12.8N 103.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 13.6N 104.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 14.7N 106.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.9N 108.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 17.3N 110.9W 80 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 22.0N 118.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 24.0N 122.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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#39 Postby bombarderoazul » Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:45 pm

Wow! tenth system for the EPAC, Ileana such a nice name.
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#40 Postby bob rulz » Mon Aug 21, 2006 5:08 pm

This should be fun to watch...it's forecast to become a hurricane, but it could become more powerful than forecast.
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