Whether you believe it or not, there is no circulation as of the 12:42 update from Quikscat....see for your self.....no circulation....a definite v-shape...but no clear LLC...
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds32.png
TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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'CaneFreak
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willjnewton
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'CaneFreak
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'CaneFreak
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yeah...it will probably stay on a west to wnw course and cause a world of trouble down the road if it all plays out as I am seeing....why?...Central Atlantic Ridge would cause system to steadily strengthen in a favorable upper level environment...SAL will likely diminish..but not dissipate....diminish just enough for this wave to eventually develop down the road...
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ConvergenceZone
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wxmann_91 wrote:The circulation's probably been ripped apart by the SAL. If there is any northward component to this system, it will not develop. The GFS, IMO, is way off, as it develops a spurious upper low to the northwest, thus carving just enough of a weakness to make 96L go northwest and recurve.
SAL has been with us all year. I suppose it will be with us the rest of the season too, as there is no evidence of the contrary....
I think this exact reason is why folks are giving up on the season....
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'CaneFreak wrote:Whether you believe it or not, there is no circulation as of the 12:42 update from Quikscat....see for your self.....no circulation....a definite v-shape...but no clear LLC...
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds32.png
This happens with QSCAT imagery sometimes...they don't do a very good job at telling users which time is valid.
The time at the top is the time of the latest update for all imagery (I think). The time of the actual image displayed is 19:30Z (in the little numbers in purple way at the bottom)...so the image looks like it's 1632Z but it's actually yesterday before the wave emerged.
I have made the same mistake before...
MW
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Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
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'CaneFreak
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wxmann_91
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ConvergenceZone wrote:wxmann_91 wrote:The circulation's probably been ripped apart by the SAL. If there is any northward component to this system, it will not develop. The GFS, IMO, is way off, as it develops a spurious upper low to the northwest, thus carving just enough of a weakness to make 96L go northwest and recurve.
SAL has been with us all year. I suppose it will be with us the rest of the season too, as there is no evidence of the contrary....
I think this exact reason is why folks are giving up on the season....
OK, so that was an old QS pass. SAL is perfectly normal this time of year... and the fact that this wave has propogated so quickly off to the west is indicative of future outbreaks being less potent and long-lasting.
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'CaneFreak
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storms in NC
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'CaneFreak wrote:Thunder44 wrote:'CaneFreak wrote:supposedly, but no LLC....same problem we've had all year....nice waves...but no LLC
No, we've had plenty of LLC's but with little or no convection over them to develop.
Any examples?
93L
What I meant to really say that we really have a problem more with convection developing than LLC forming.
Last edited by Thunder44 on Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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'CaneFreak
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Thunder44 wrote:'CaneFreak wrote:Thunder44 wrote:'CaneFreak wrote:supposedly, but no LLC....same problem we've had all year....nice waves...but no LLC
No, we've had plenty of LLC's but with little or no convection over them to develop.
Any examples?
93L
plenty of convection....too much shear....had nothing to do with convection....
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'CaneFreak wrote:Thunder44 wrote:'CaneFreak wrote:Thunder44 wrote:'CaneFreak wrote:supposedly, but no LLC....same problem we've had all year....nice waves...but no LLC
No, we've had plenty of LLC's but with little or no convection over them to develop.
Any examples?
93L
plenty of convection....too much shear....had nothing to do with convection....
If you follow these invests throughout the entire time, alot of them have problem sustaining their convection. Even the ones that did developed lost their convection due either shear or dry air.
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vacanechaser
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AJC3 wrote:Deleted. Slow, fat fingered typists always get beat to the punch.
lol... you have the problem too????
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Reserach Team
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SouthFloridawx
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Edit ... revised below.
Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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