TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

['CaneFreak]

there is no center.....great point there SFWX...

[SouthFloridawx]

there is no center.....great point there SFWX...

Here is a better image...

[Derek Ortt]

This seems to have about as much chance at developing in the next 36 hours as Floyd Landis does of keeping his Tour de France title, very little. Too much SAL and convection has collapsed to the north

it may be a few more days before anything decides to pop

[DESTRUCTION5]

This seems to have about as much chance at developing in the next 36 hours as Floyd Landis does of keeping his Tour de France title, very little. Too much SAL and convection has collapsed to the north

it may be a few more days before anything decides to pop

Derek of the 3 suspect areas which one do you think has the best shot at dev?

[ConvergenceZone]

This seems to have about as much chance at developing in the next 36 hours as Floyd Landis does of keeping his Tour de France title, very little. Too much SAL and convection has collapsed to the north

it may be a few more days before anything decides to pop

hehe stupid SAL(dry air) should be shot.....


sorry, just angry and frustrated at this year..........

[willjnewton]

what about a updated Infrared imagery thats colorfull about this wave? so I can see the convection better can someone show me that please?

[whereverwx]

what about a updated Infrared imagery thats colorfull about this wave? so I can see the convection better can someone show me that please?

Here...

[WmE]

what about a updated Infrared imagery thats colorfull about this wave? so I can see the convection better can someone show me that please?

Here...

It seems like it's falling apart.

[willjnewton]

I thought this system has persistant convection??even though it has been fighting dry air and wind shear...

[Derek Ortt]

maybe the one at 40W, and even that has only a slight chance of development

if you want to see a developing system, check out the one near 105W in the EPAC, probable major hurricane

This is starting to remind me of 1997, a lot of invests in the East Atlantic under favorable conditions, but they don't develop before the encounter the hostile conditions (except for 2)

[DESTRUCTION5]

maybe the one at 40W, and even that has only a slight chance of development

if you want to see a developing system, check out the one near 105W in the EPAC, probable major hurricane

This is starting to remind me of 1997, a lot of invests in the East Atlantic under favorable conditions, but they don't develop before the encounter the hostile conditions (except for 2)

interesting ..Thanks

['CaneFreak]

This seems to have about as much chance at developing in the next 36 hours as Floyd Landis does of keeping his Tour de France title, very little. Too much SAL and convection has collapsed to the north

it may be a few more days before anything decides to pop

I agree...which would keep it on a WESTward course and it will probably pop at around 50 to 55W....at that longitude it will have the high almost directly overhead and this thing would stay on a west to westnorthwest track over the course of the next several days....

[fci]

This seems to have about as much chance at developing in the next 36 hours as Floyd Landis does of keeping his Tour de France title, very little. Too much SAL and convection has collapsed to the north

it may be a few more days before anything decides to pop

Maybe if Floyd can feed 96L some of what he was taking, it can develop too!!

[miamicanes177]

This is starting to remind me of 1997

I'm not sure how you can compare June 1st-August 21st 2006 with the strongest el nino year on record. The best experts in the entire world are predicting 12-15 storms with 7-9 hurricanes (3-4 major).

[Jim Cantore]

GFDL likes it
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/invest96l/fcst/archive/06082106/1.html

MM5-FSU gives it some potential

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/invest96l/fcst/archive/06082106/1.html

[Regit]

Every time we see convection decline in a storm people start saying its falling apart and, oh now it's chances are gone.

Very few of the waves we've seen this year were destroyed the first time convection declined. Convection often has a roller-coaster effect in waves.

While I'm not saying this wave is going to develop, it's silly for the entire mood of the board to change because convection is declining slightly.

We constantly say that convection must persist to be sure a storm is developing. Well we need to also WAIT and see if a decline in convection persists to be confident that a storm is falling apart. Even then, we might still be wrong.

[Thunder44]

Well I see low-level cloud lines moving from west to east, so it appears to have a LLC. Just needs more convection over the center.

[Derek Ortt]

I dont think this will head west even if it is very weak.

The Shallow BAM has this moving NW with the remainder of the guidance

[wxmann_91]

Derek,

The models are all based off the GFS. If one looks at the 850mb winds on that model, they are mainly E-W. Only if this system deepens and becomes vertically stacked, will it get caught in that weakness GFS is developing. And, even then, I'm thinking the GFS is prematurely recurving 96L, tainting the model guidance.

[curtadams]

On the navy animations it has a large and vigorous cyclonic circulation. Something that big has to get down to the surface, so I think it's a least a TD. Looks like a TS. Convection is increasing the past few hours. Unlikely to hit land and unlikely to ever become a major, but it's not poofing.