Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

#121 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:06 pm

Any Pro Met opinions on this system now? Is the current convective burst evident on IR imagery simply a thunderstorm complex?

#122 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:09 pm

Starting to be a believer:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

Johnny · #123 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:18 pm

My thoughts on this wave.

Convection died off overnight and got going again this morning. Convection is steadily on the increase as the day wears on. Conditions seems to be a bit more favorable than yesterday. With this said, I think we will see some organization out of this and I don't think convection will fall off later on tonight as it did last night.

This is trying to get going alot slower than previously thought. Because of this, if something does get going then I think the track would have to be shifted westward a bit.

I think wxman is holding off on saying anything because he wants to see convection increase throughout today and persist though the overnight hours. It's obvious that he hasn't written it off because he would of said so by now. It's a wait and see situation.

'CaneFreak · #124 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:19 pm

Would someone dig up some surface observations from the Caymans to see if the pressures are falling because right now I am checking bouy observations and I dont see evidence from any of the buoys that the pressures are falling nor do I see evidence of a major wind shift from a circulation trying to spin up....??? :?:

Thanks

#125 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:21 pm

On visible, I'm seeing the thin, smooth, wispy clouds around the periphery of the system, which sometimes comes before "poof". It's almost like the edges of the convection are not well defined. They are feathering out like smoke being blown by wind.

The last few times I've seen this on visible, the whole convective complex vanishes in a few hours.

If not, I'd like to know for sure what causes that wispy appearance.

wxmann_91 · #126 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:21 pm

outflow boundaries probably.

#127 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:24 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:outflow boundaries probably.

No...he's talking about the whispy cirrus looking clouds that seem to be "fanning" away from the convection.

#128 Postby **BreinLa** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:27 pm

Why doesn't this thingy just go away and stay away, we were doing so good this year.

#129 Postby **fwbbreeze** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:37 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:Would someone dig up some surface observations from the Caymans to see if the pressures are falling because right now I am checking bouy observations and I dont see evidence from any of the buoys that the pressures are falling nor do I see evidence of a major wind shift from a circulation trying to spin up....??? Thanks

Cayman Islands observations:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCR.html

http://www.weatherincayman.com/

http://www.arnold-net.com/weather/

http://www.caymanport.com/weather.htm

Johnny · #130 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:40 pm

Their looks to be a mid-leve spin around 18N, 80W.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

#131 Postby **EmeraldCoast1** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:41 pm

Some quotes from the 1st thread (from yesterday):

ok, I am on the verge of bashing the NHC for this. They must be crazy.

This thing looks better than many other invests over the last few months! I think it deserved to at least be mentioned!

are you kidding me...was he Late for sunday dinner or what?

Maybe their satellite feed is out? Or "if we ignore it, it will go away" may be their thinking. Tried that with 91L and it looked like a TD for 3 days. I'll never figure those guys out. I know most of them. They must see the developing storms in a favorable environment.

See what I mean downplaying it big time. Is there anything or not? So many opinions but the NHC acts like it is absolutely nothing.

I can't believe they didn't say anything. They talk about a system that has no chance at forming but then nothing when there is something that has a better chance. I don't understand it either.

Maybe all the smart guys took the weekend off because things were quite.

END QUOTES

Wow. Some of you really need to give the NHC a break on these blobs. The models all but dropped the idea on this by Friday afternoon, yet some on this board were being quite hostile toward them not mentioning it over the weekend in the TWO's. Have you ever thought that maybe the NHC PROFESSIONALS know what they are (or aren't) talking about? They have tools available to them that we could only dream of. I know they are not always right, but for them to ignore these thunderstorms over the weekend meant that they had a high degree of confidence that the blob was indeed nothing.

vacanechaser · #132 Postby **vacanechaser** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:50 pm

Wow. Some of you really need to give the NHC a break on these blobs. The models all but dropped the idea on this by Friday afternoon, yet some on this board were being quite hostile toward them not mentioning it over the weekend in the TWO's. Have you ever thought that maybe the NHC PROFESSIONALS know what they are (or aren't) talking about? They have tools available to them that we could only dream of. I know they are not always right, but for them to ignore these thunderstorms over the weekend meant that they had a high degree of confidence that the blob was indeed nothing.

great points... i agree... i think they know what they are doing

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

#133 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:55 pm

vacanechaser wrote:
Wow. Some of you really need to give the NHC a break on these blobs. The models all but dropped the idea on this by Friday afternoon, yet some on this board were being quite hostile toward them not mentioning it over the weekend in the TWO's. Have you ever thought that maybe the NHC PROFESSIONALS know what they are (or aren't) talking about? They have tools available to them that we could only dream of. I know they are not always right, but for them to ignore these thunderstorms over the weekend meant that they had a high degree of confidence that the blob was indeed nothing.

great points... i agree... i think they know what they are doing

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Exactly. Some of the same people thought I was crazy for not buying into a model that showed a closed low within 12 hours. It's been the 12 hours X 6 now and still hasn't closed off....

#134 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:56 pm

vacanechaser wrote:
Wow. Some of you really need to give the NHC a break on these blobs. The models all but dropped the idea on this by Friday afternoon, yet some on this board were being quite hostile toward them not mentioning it over the weekend in the TWO's. Have you ever thought that maybe the NHC PROFESSIONALS know what they are (or aren't) talking about? They have tools available to them that we could only dream of. I know they are not always right, but for them to ignore these thunderstorms over the weekend meant that they had a high degree of confidence that the blob was indeed nothing.

great points... i agree... i think they know what they are doing
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yep people really need to calm down. You all have some of the same tools they have at thier disposal.

Remember Persistent convection is key at a developing storm.

Sit back and relax and stop getting so upset because there have only been 3 storms so far. This is really starting to get rediculous all these negative crap posts about how bad a job the nhc is doing... and ohhh season cancel... and blah blah blah.

If you don't have any positive or factual feedback and it is merely negative banter just keep it to youself.

Maybe you could go outside and yell at the sky.

KatDaddy · #135 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:59 pm

Totally agree! This is a normal season and people are flipping out. Talk about cats in a room full of rockers ready pounce at any sign of blobs.

Sanibel · #136 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:20 pm

Persistance

Round shape

This is when the lack of Floater attention draws my wrath.

A system under shear will show its surface feature out in the open on the upwind side. This one isn't doing that - yet shows signs of having cyclonic properties.

Johnny · #137 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:32 pm

I believe all of those quotes that emeraldcoast posted were fairly reasonable. I don't think anyone was saying that the NHC should of mentioned it because it could possibly develop. The overall gripe was that their is an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean and the NHC made no mention of it WHAT SO EVER......NO WAY, SHAPE or FORM.

I've seen the NHC mention in the TWO many of times this season of areas that didn't have the slightest chance of developing and looked piss poor compared to this wave.

Even though I didn't make any remarks about the NHC, I was pretty darn surprised that they didn't even mention it in the TWO. Apparently I was far from the only one thinking this way.

Now back on topic....do any of y'all see a mid level twist down there or what? 8-)

#138 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:46 pm

The entire region looks active but nothing really organized except for
the blob mentioned in this thread. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

#139 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:48 pm

I posted this in another forum. Just my opinion:

Derek Ortt · #140 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:50 pm

No, most here do NOT have anything close to the level of the tools available to the NHC, even those that I have are a little less than what NHC has (though I use the same set of guidance, except for the super ensemble and ECMWF, the latter I do not like anyways). I've been ther emany times for seminars, and what they have most here can only dream about

Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

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