Tropical Weather Outlook 10:30Pm TPc

[Typhoon_Willie]

Here it is!


000
ABNT20 KNHC 150203
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SURFACE LOW PREVIOUSLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND POORLY
DEFINED. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AROUND A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS
CENTERED ABOUT 220 MILES EAST OF THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER...OR
ALSO ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION TO
OCCUR...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD STILL
DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN JAMAICA AND GRAND
CAYMAN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REGION
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[MWatkins]

I posted a very lengthy forecast eariler tonight...not going to repeat it and it appears at the bottom...but convection around the mid-level center is fading right now.

In my experience with these caribbean systems...it seems like there is almost always a period of 6-8 hours where all convection goes ayay...then a huge ball of deep convection goes up and BLAM...the development cycle starts in earnest.

Let's see what happens overnight.

Forecast for those interested:

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/2003-TC03.htm

MW

[cycloneye]

I agree with that Mike about caribbean systems going thru fluctuations or cycles before they goe ahead and develop but let's see what tommorow morning brings.

[wx247]

Very good forecast Mwatkins. Very well thought-out and well written.

Could you explain this part of your discussion to me. I am a novice at this:

ANY ATTEMPTS AT STRENGTHENING ARE GOING TO HAVE TO HAPPEN IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ONCE STEERING SLOWS DOWN...THE SYSTEM WILL BE LEFT IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE GULF FROM THE MIDWEST.

Thanks!
Garrett

[MWatkins]

Very good forecast Mwatkins. Very well thought-out and well written.

Could you explain this part of your discussion to me. I am a novice at this:

ANY ATTEMPTS AT STRENGTHENING ARE GOING TO HAVE TO HAPPEN IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ONCE STEERING SLOWS DOWN...THE SYSTEM WILL BE LEFT IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF A TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE GULF FROM THE MIDWEST.

Thanks!
Garrett

At this point I think the window closes for strengtheing in 3 days. The upper environment is mostly favorable now....light winds aloft are good for these systems. But in three days...winds aloft will begin to increase out of the west in response to a trough...these winds are going to stop any intensification and may induce weakening.

Think of your bathtub when you pull the plug and the water stops to drain. If you get out and watch...and leave the water alone...you can usually see a vortex develop as the water drains and there is nothing disturbing the water. If you stick your foot into the tub again...you can disrupt the vortex by making waves and asserting different pressures (waves) on the vortex.

But if you leave it all by itself...it makes a nice little tornado.

So...now..nobody screwing with the water. 72 hours from now...a size 12 foot is dropped into the tub.

MW

[wx247]

Thanks!