TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

'CaneFreak · #382 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:23 pm

Can we all now agree that this will turn out to sea?

kevin · #383 Postby **kevin** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:24 pm

Jim Hughes wrote:So a Cape Verde TD forms right on the heels, 48 hours, of the most extended and strongest geomagnetic storm since September 2005. Solar flaring has also increased recently to go along with the healthier looking conditions for the ATL.

There were 57 C-class solar flares and five M-Class during all of 2006 up until August 15th 2006. ( M-Class flares are stronger and it increase exponnentially. X-Class are the strongest.)

There have been 15 C-Class flares during the past six days and nine of these have occured during the past two days.

So during the the first 227 days of 2006 the daily average was about .25 C-Class flares per day and the past six days average is 2.5

This recent average is almost a 10-1 ratio if you exclude the five M-Class flares. I could go on with some other increases involving energettic particle data also but I believe that I have made my point. Space weather is very important here and I continually showed this time and time again last season. On many fronts.

BTW forum rules keep me from positng URL's to other places. DO a Google search for PET Cycle and Jim Hughes. This is just another example of how space weather effects out weather/climate.

Its August.

DESTRUCTION5 · #384 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:24 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:Can we all now agree that this will turn out to sea?

Yes wont' get west of 50-60

Scorpion · #385 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:26 pm

Wow! Last night I thought this would fizzle. I come home from school and we have a TD! Sweet!

Trugunzn · #386 Postby **Trugunzn** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:28 pm

I tought Derek had this at 5% develope?

#387 Postby **tgenius** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:28 pm

So advisories expected begining 5PM EST I would assume?

canegrl04 · #388 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:28 pm

Crap! That already looks like Debbie :eek:

Its shape is that of a hurricane already.I hope she doesn't make her way to the US coast.If shes a fish,I'd like to see her become a 4 or 5 8-)

wxwatcher91 · #389 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:29 pm

Using the location of the model initialization, TD 4 is the farthest east TD since Alberto of 2000

Windsurfer_NYC · #390 Postby **Windsurfer_NYC** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:29 pm

Still no Special Tropical Disturbance Statement......... :?:

#391 Postby **AnnularCane** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:29 pm

Wow. I don't know what to say. Oh my, she is beautiful.

Derek Ortt · #392 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:30 pm

I would not have classified this

now that is a TD, I am taking the course of least regret due to the immediate threat to land and will bring this to marginal TS intensity. Forecast will be ready in about 10 minutes

mike815 · #393 Postby **mike815** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:30 pm

well i still think its wayyy to early to say 100 percent on recurvature

JTD · #394 Postby **JTD** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:30 pm

Windsurfer_NYC wrote:Still no Special Tropical Disturbance Statement.........

They'll just begin initiating advisories at 5.

#395 Postby **tgenius** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:31 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I would not have classified this

now that is a TD, I am taking the course of least regret due to the immediate threat to land and will bring this to marginal TS intensity. Forecast will be ready in about 10 minutes

Derek, I'd only guess that NHC is erring on the side of caution, CYA is always important as hindsight is 20/20

#396 Postby **curtadams** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:32 pm

WmE wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:This is a TD... looks like I am working on a forecast, which I am not very happy writing

Yeah I understand you Derek. It doesn't look like one.

Have you looked at the animations on the Navy site? Convection is lacking toward the center but not absent and you have a pretty vigorous circulation combined with expanding cloud cover and expanding convection.

#397 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:34 pm

Prediction: Major hurricane. Fish-spinner though. (Not official!)

MiamiensisWx · #398 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:36 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Prediction: Major hurricane. Fish-spinner though. (Not official!)

That's quite bold. Anything to back it up? Any reasonings/patterns/synoptics as to why you think so?

Scott_inVA · #399 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:36 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:It may have been classified since it is an iminent threat to land, to a very vulnerable region

Given a progged NW track, the CVs (especially southern islands), I'm inclined to agree.

FWIW, the Ukie still blows this off within 36 hours. Given SAL and marginal SSTs, I'm inclined to agree somewhat with that, too :wink:

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com

Meso · #400 Postby **Meso** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:36 pm

Hrm... Everyone is saying it's going to be so strong... I don't see it happening at all.. In my opinion it will stay a TD for a bit then become a TS and will probably max off at 50 - 60mph before the SAL takes it's toll on it.. In my opinion I also don't see it tracking west... Sure looks to be a NW movement once it hits the weakness in the ridge.. JMO

TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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