TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[deltadog03]

no...he has NOTHING to back that up.....The models will ALL show recurve, however I am not so sure.

[CrazyC83]

Prediction: Major hurricane. Fish-spinner though. (Not official!)

That's quite bold. Anything to back it up? Any reasonings/patterns/synoptics as to why you think so?

Weakening shear and water conditions and the GFDL backs that up too. Hence I predict the first hurricane and a Category 3 or 4 at that.
Thankfully it will likely be a .

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//gfdl/ ... /slp21.png

[Thunder44]

This is a TD... looks like I am working on a forecast, which I am not very happy writing

Yeah I understand you Derek. It doesn't look like one.

Have you looked at the animations on the Navy site? Convection is lacking toward the center but not absent and you have a pretty vigorous circulation combined with expanding cloud cover and expanding convection.

I didn't think TPC would classify so soon, because convection was lacking somewhat around the center, that they would wait longer. But personally I do think there is enough convection and organization to declare this a TD. It hasn't gone poof like other CV waves have this season and I don't think there is enough SAL intrustion to prevent this from developing into a strong TS over the next day or so.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I'm not buying into as early a recurve/northwest motion as the model guidance are indicating. Since the system is still shallow and is gradually deepening and organizing, along with a steady west-northwest movement in general and lack of a pronounced weakness this far east and closer to the latitude of the system, indicates a later turn to the northwest than the models may be indicating. Mid-level steering currents also support a more west-northwest track and later turn than indicated by the models and esemble means.

[huricanagadzi]

I give this wave maybe a 5% chance of developing (This would dvelop into a TC 1 out of 20 times). It really needed to move more to the west to stay out of the SAL

Opps

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow, I havn't gotten on all day and now I come back to a TD? Looks like things are heating up!

[brunota2003]

according to NRL (like you guys pointed out it was upgraded) 04L Noname has winds of 30 knots and a minium central pressure of 1007 millibars...has there been any ship reports recently?

[Derek Ortt]

I and an office mate do not believe this is a TD, but as I said, this may have been classified since it is a threat to land

[CrazyC83]

according to NRL (like you guys pointed out it was upgraded) 04L Noname has winds of 30 knots and a minium central pressure of 1007 millibars...has there been any ship reports recently?

We need to find sites from Cape Verde to watch.

[Extremeweatherguy]

hey wait a second...how do we know this a TD? I just checked the NHC page and it says nothing about this.

[Rainband]

I and an office mate do not believe this is a TD, but as I said, this may have been classified since it is a threat to land

Since there is no way to be 100% sure. IE recon etc. I think it was a good call since it's right near the islands.

[Yankeegirl]

Extreme, its on this link...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extreme, its on this link...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

oh, ok. Thanks.

[vacanechaser]

I and an office mate do not believe this is a TD, but as I said, this may have been classified since it is a threat to land

i have a question for you then.... if they just upgraded it because of the islands, then why didnt they upgrade 93L.. it was closer to land, more people, including boating intrests along the u.s. coast... that logic does not seem to fit both situations... just a thought...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[miamicanes177]

I'm sure the NHC does not classify a TD just for fun. I can assure you it was a well thought out decision and they can back up their claims.

[cycloneye]

I'm sure the NHC does not classify a TD just for fun. I can assure you it was a well thought out decision and they can back up their claims.

When the Advisory discussion comes out we will know the reasoning for the upgrade.

[curtadams]

Here's what I'm talking about. Starts off looking good, weakens as it sucks in some dry air from the NE and then suddenly - boom - convection everywhere. Even a pulse right near the center, suggesting the moist air factory is operational.

[WmE]

Here's what I'm talking about. Starts off looking good, weakens as it sucks in some dry air from the NE and then suddenly - boom - convection everywhere. Even a pulse right near the center, suggesting the moist air factory is operational.

Now, it starts looking like a TD.

Well, it starts looking really good.

[MiamiensisWx]

The recent bursts of consolidating convection near the MLC/LLC are likely due to the aforementioned moderating of the mid-level SAL to the north and northwest of depression. The large circulation may also be helping in slowly consolidating convection, with the moderating of the current mid-level SAL to the north and northwest allowing this slow and gradual organization and development. This may also help the system maintain structure and convection somewhat even as a new burst of mid-level SAL may be exiting the African coastline within roughly 48 hours.

[Trugunzn]

If it stays td and not a tropical storm all the way towards 50 west in may have a chane of not recurving. But thats if it doesnt turn to tropical storm east of 50W