TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[curtadams]

IMO SAL will not affect this system much for the next few days (beyond what's obviously already in it). Low-level there are enough storms and clouds to moisten that air. Mid-level shear is from the south, so SAL can't get in there.

[Jim Hughes]

So a Cape Verde TD forms right on the heels, 48 hours, of the most extended and strongest geomagnetic storm since September 2005. Solar flaring has also increased recently to go along with the healthier looking conditions for the ATL.

There were 57 C-class solar flares and five M-Class during all of 2006 up until August 15th 2006. ( M-Class flares are stronger and it increase exponnentially. X-Class are the strongest.)

There have been 15 C-Class flares during the past six days and nine of these have occured during the past two days.

So during the the first 227 days of 2006 the daily average was about .25 C-Class flares per day and the past six days average is 2.5

This recent average is almost a 10-1 ratio if you exclude the five M-Class flares. I could go on with some other increases involving energettic particle data also but I believe that I have made my point. Space weather is very important here and I continually showed this time and time again last season. On many fronts.

BTW forum rules keep me from positng URL's to other places. DO a Google search for PET Cycle and Jim Hughes. This is just another example of how space weather effects out weather/climate.

Its August.

Yes it is. So why was last years so "early" during all the increased space weather and why did the same thing happen in 2004 after a very strong geomagnetic storm between July 25th-27th. There are other years also Kevin.

Your comments were the same last year I will discuss things after you actually learn something about space weather. BTW do the search I mention for my other discussion and tell me what's wrong with it. I challenge you to bring it to the Global Weather Forum and rip it apart.

[huricanagadzi]

So, where is this go? Any pro but Derek Ortt have thought on direction/intensity? Explain, please. Thanks much.

[Thunder44]

I'm sure the NHC does not classify a TD just for fun. I can assure you it was a well thought out decision and they can back up their claims.

When the Advisory discussion comes out we will know the reasoning for the upgrade.

I'm sure they will have more reasoning behind the upgrade, besides CV islands being threatened.

[senorpepr]

By tomorrow, we very well should have Tropical Depression #4 and little Debbie not long after that. 2006 is rolling...

I highly doubt that. I'm willing to do a coke bet on that. It's plenty stable on the eastern portions of any ocean.

Touché. I'm glad you didn't take me up on that coke bet.

[Jim Hughes]

I and an office mate do not believe this is a TD, but as I said, this may have been classified since it is a threat to land

Why would they classify a non TD into a TD just becuase it is getting closer to land. This is not done when a wave approaches our coastline.

I am surprised you said this Derek. I do not udnerstand your reasoning here but I could easily speculate.

[curtadams]

Fresh (I think) Quickscat shows no closed circulation but very close with strong intake. http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas32.png

[vacanechaser]

I and an office mate do not believe this is a TD, but as I said, this may have been classified since it is a threat to land

Why would they classify a non TD into a TD just becuase it is getting closer to land. This is not done when a wave approaches our coastline.

I am surprised you said this Derek. I do not udnerstand your reasoning here but I could easily speculate.

i am still waiting for an explantion... it seems to happen quiet offten... not sure i understand why, but everyone likes to second quess..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Derek Ortt]

TDs are upgraded far more freuqently near land. This is done all of the time near the USA. Grace for example never would have been upgraded in the open Atlantic

[Derek Ortt]

93L at this point had lost all of its convection. It was very close to being classified and the TWO was much stronger

[Thunder44]

Fresh (I think) Quickscat shows no closed circulation but very close with strong intake. http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas32.png

I do see a closed circulation near 13N 19W. And that pass is from last night.

[vacanechaser]

TDs are upgraded far more freuqently near land. This is done all of the time near the USA. Grace for example never would have been upgraded in the open Atlantic

you still didnt answer the question... if thats the case, then why didnt they upgrade 93L??? more people would have been in harms way.. not to mention the boating intrests... it was there for days and with out question had a surface circulation... not sure i follow your logic


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[bvigal]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_04.gif
I think since EVERY model has this crossing 20N before reaching even 40W, and have consistantly been showing this for days, it's not too early to know with almost certainty that this system is going fishing. And, the models are not showing what they think IF if organizes, they are saying it WILL organize and move that direction. So saying "if" it stays weak it will move west 'instead', is saying ALL the models are drastically wrong. Yes, some variation in models from run to run can be expected, but it would have to be unprecedented changes to bring this anywhere near a U.S. coastline.

Jim, I think this correlation to geomagnetics is more than coincidental, and if analyzed mathmatically, might be proven so. Just a guess.

Fluctuations in convection from half-hour to half-hour are to be expected. TD's are organizing, so that's not unusual.

Here's those ship reports requested. From 1800z.

Code: Select all

LAT   LON   WDIR   WSPD   WVHT   DPD   PRES   PTDY   ATMP   WTMP   DEWP   VIS   TCC   S1HT   S1PD   S1DIR
      °   kts   ft   sec   in   in   °F   °F   °F   mi   8th   ft   sec   °
11.70   -23.30   100   15.5   6.6   6   29.99   +0.01   82.0   79.9   77.9   31.1   8   ---   -   ---
13.50   -19.00   170   15.5   4.9   3   29.85   +0.03   81.5   82.4   75.6   12.4   7   9.8   8   350
13.70   -17.60   130   23.3   1.6   5   29.85   -0.03   84.2   82.6   76.6   12.4   6   6.6   9   360
14.40   -18.00   130   09.7   ---   -   29.88   -0.01   88.7   ----   78.4   06.2   7   6.6   6   360
10.30   -17.10   180   15.9   3.3   5   29.86   +0.00   81.1   82.9   75.4   12.4   7   6.6   9   180
08.80   -15.90   220   08.9   3.3   3   29.91   -0.01   79.2   81.7   75.0   06.2   6   4.9   7   210


[Thunder44]

TDs are upgraded far more freuqently near land. This is done all of the time near the USA. Grace for example never would have been upgraded in the open Atlantic

Derek, I just don't believe that would be their only reason. Wait for their discussion to explain their decision.

[Derek Ortt]

I did answer the question on 93L. It was in an obvious weakening trend at this point, while this is in a steady to slightly organizing trend

[miamicanes177]

Guys, this is a tropical depression. I'm not sure if anyone on this board is qualified to question the NHC and their abilities. It seems like people want to bash the NHC everytime they make a move. Let us all understand they have more knowledge of the tropics than anyone and respect them.

[vacanechaser]

93L at this point had lost all of its convection. It was very close to being classified and the TWO was much stronger

well, maybe you were looking at a different satellite image than i was... it always seemed to come back.. i have seen worse systems with names than 93L... edouard comes to mind for starters... i quess it is just a difference of opinion...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[MGC]

I would imagine the NHC is upgrading to TD based on ship reports. Looks like a marginal TD at best as there is little convection near the center. It appears to be a broad area of low pressure to me. At first glance at the stearing patterns, I'd say fish, but it might make it to cane if it stays out the dry air to its north.....MGC

[Derek Ortt]

as an aside, my office mate who agreed (and she usually thinks I am too slow to depict a closed LLC) with me happened to work at a Chinese Typhoon center with a Masters before coming to the States for a PHD

[bvigal]

21/1730 UTC 12.1N 21.1W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic Ocean