Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

miamicanes177 · #141 Postby **miamicanes177** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:52 pm

I would indeed hope the NHC would have more information than any pro met or weather fan in the country. They have a job to alert the public of tropical activity. They should and do have better tools than anyone.

bayoubebe · #142 Postby **bayoubebe** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:54 pm

*error* wrong thread. :oops:

miamicanes177 · #143 Postby **miamicanes177** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:55 pm

bayou, they were talking about 96L.

WmE · #144 Postby **WmE** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:56 pm

That's the wrong thread I guess! :wink:

Derek Ortt · #145 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:58 pm

other pro mets likely have everything except for the super ensemble (unless they pay a few million for it) and 15 minute Metsat data. It just costs a lot though

#146 Postby **Frank P** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:59 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:No, most here do NOT have anything close to the level of the tools available to the NHC, even those that I have are a little less than what NHC has (though I use the same set of guidance, except for the super ensemble and ECMWF, the latter I do not like anyways). I've been ther emany times for seminars, and what they have most here can only dream about

The NHC is the best of the best.... are they always right, of course not... who is?? but they are head and shoulders above everyone else... hands down... you will never see me bash the NHC... questioning them is fine.... but when it really matters and your life is on the line, they are the ones I listen to... as most everyone else with any sense... we also have some great mets on this board... whom I have great respect... in fact all the pro mets on this board are exceptional meteorologists IMO

And Derek I wonder why someone as talented as you are not working for the NHC... unless you just don't want to.....

beachbum_al · #147 Postby **beachbum_al** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:59 pm

If I remember right I think there was quite a few who were bashing the NHC last year too. Honestly I think the NHC does a great job and without them there would a lot of lives lost when it does come down to tracking a system. They do a great job!

miamicanes177 · #148 Postby **miamicanes177** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:00 pm

yeh I bet that stuff is expensive! I'm just happy to get the free models on the computer

#149 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 2:05 pm

We are probably looking in the wrong place, the wave(trough) axis is farther west near the Yucatan border. The area where the T-storms are blowing up has E flow at the surface with all most no voriticy at the surface.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor4.GIF

and pressures are rising compared to 24 hrs. ago.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor4.GIF

after a second look pressures are higher all along Central America.

tropicsgal05 · #150 Postby **tropicsgal05** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:07 pm

Does it look as though this system in the caribbean might develop ? Just asking for thoughts.

Sanibel · #151 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:10 pm

Now it looks like a mundane wave drifting in the Caribbean. No development soon from this one.

#152 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:13 pm

IMO, the chances are still there for development. Even under 20kts of shear this was able to generate thunderstorms. The convection is still on the increase right now where as yesterday at this time it was on the decrease. As long as it holds together, and there is just a little bit of convergence, I think it has a shot over the next few days...especially when it gets into the southern Gulf.

#153 Postby **Starburst** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:23 pm

Good point and also if I am reading the shear charts correctly the shear it is moving into is only about 10 knots.

#154 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:26 pm

yes...it's moving into an area of lesser shear. The southeastern gulf is actually pretty favorable and I believe I see signs of high pressure building aloft.

#155 Postby **Starburst** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:29 pm

Yes I do think you are right and also noticing that it will move into only 5-10 knots pretty favorable for development if you ask me. :wink:

tropicsgal05 · #156 Postby **tropicsgal05** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:42 pm

Any idea as to which direction it may take if it deveolps or gets into the Gulf?

#157 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:46 pm

This area is also moving into SST's approaching 87 degrees at buoy 42056 in the NW Carib. If it is going to develop though it must continue with the convection and grow as it appears in recent visibles it may try.

tropicsgal05 · #158 Postby **tropicsgal05** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:50 pm

I was looking at that buoy also, i think the pressure was 29.91 and falling.

Extremeweatherguy · #159 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:52 pm

according to Steve Lyons this area is expected to push toward the Yucatan and then on into Texas. He said no development expected at this time though.

Johnny · #160 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:56 pm

Hey EWG, I guess Joe B. has pretty much written this one off?

Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

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