TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Derek Ortt]

When 93L was at 15W, I thought it was a TS (and I believe I said as such), but when it reached 20, it had weakened


That said, the effects will be the same, flooding rainfall and mudslides likely.If upgrading is necessary to depict this threat, then of course I say upgrade

[vacanechaser]

as an aside, my office mate who agreed (and she usually thinks I am too slow to depict a closed LLC) with me happened to work at a Chinese Typhoon center with a Masters before coming to the States for a PHD

thats great... thats awesome... but i dont see where that comes into play here... i just think the nhc knows better... just my thoughts.. nothing personal.. just wanted to get your thoughts... and you answered while my slow fingers were moving on the key board...


Jesse V. Bass III
http:/www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks lot like a tropicial storm right now. Very organized. I think it will be debby very soon.

[bvigal]

Let's mention this again about QSCATs. The data buffer time has nothing to do with when the picture was made, only with when you called up the data. The number directly under the chart, in purple lettering, is the zulu time of the satellite pass for that "band".

[MiamiensisWx]

I personally believe this system is close enough in organization, consolidation, and synoptics to be classified a depression. With the potential for additional slow development and organization ahead due to prevailing moderate anticyclonic flow, slow consolidation of convection and large size, establishing banding, and slightly moderating mid-level SAL to the north and northwest, the NHC made a solid decision in upgrading this to depression status, in my opinion. Also, close proximity to land, along with the other points mentioned above by myself, also aids in making the decision to upgrade to a depression.

[SouthFloridawx]

TD 04 continues to look good dispite the Saharan dust which is very visible on the final shots before the sun goes down.

[KWT]

If TD4 can become a TS soon then at the very least this wil ldo wonders for the ACE in the Atlantic so far. Still this does look like a good system at the moment with a clear center (You only have to look at the sat picture above to see that!) though the SAL evident to the north could hurt the northern section again over the next 12hrs.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

The quickscat in fact shown a soildly closed LLC. Also the inflow into the system...This is better looking then 93L. Don't get me wrong I thought it was also a depression at a time or two. I expect later tonight that another burst will form near/on top of the center. In which will finally seal the deal with this system=get it really going. I expect debby by 11am if that happens. But yes there is dry air/SAL which was likely the cause of the convection falling apart near the center. Watch it wash it out.

[OuterBanker]

Yes it is in the most favorable position now, but as it heads west past the Cape Verdes it will meet much different conditions.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST...NOW ALONG 21W WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N. AT 12Z...IT WAS ANALYZED AT 1011 MB. THIS WAVE IS PROBABLY THE MOST VIGOROUS IN THE E ATLC SO FAR THIS YEAR. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOME FROM THIS MORNING BUT REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN AN BANDED FEATURE WHICH WRAPS TWO-THIRDS AROUND THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND S OF THE LOW FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 19W-25W. THIS AREA MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WNW AT 10-15 KT. ONE OF THE POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTORS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS THE LARGE AREA OF DUST TO THE N AND W OF THE LOW...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF A FACTOR IT WILL BE. ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE SEEN SPINNING IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL ATLC. THE WRN-MOST IS ABOUT 60 NM E OF DAYTONA BEACH FL. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE S SIDE OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 76W-81W. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS ABOUT 250 NM SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N61W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE S AND E SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING PATCHES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A SFC TROF IS EVIDENT IN QUIKSCAT DATA TO THE S OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG 23N70W 28N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE E OF THE BOUNDARY. SIMILAR ACTIVITY LIES WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE ALONG 26N54W 30N59W. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS NEAR 25N41W. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR PRODUCING LITTLE WEATHER. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 24N66W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 16N39W...THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES NE TO BEYOND 32N17W. DRY STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR COVERS THE AREA UNDER THIS RIDGE. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR...WIDESPREAD SAHARAN DUST IN THE MID-LEVELS HAS SURGED OUT TO NEAR 55W BETWEEN 11N-25N BESIDES FOR THE SPECIAL FEATURE...TROPICAL WAVES AND SFC TROUGH MENTIONED...HIGH PRES RIDGING DOMINATES WITH THE SURFACE HIGHS ANALYZED N OF THE REGION. THIS FAIRLY STRONG SFC RIDGE HAS INCREASED TRADE WINDS IN THE TROPICS.

[Lowpressure]

The northern semi circle of this system being able to not only support convection but cloud tops have chilled remarkably over the last four hours may be another factor for upgrade. It has shielded itself from the SAL to this point.

Discussion here really should not be is it a depression and why, but rather where is the LLC and how do models react.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also looking at that quickscat shows 4 barbs on one=40 knots...And another with 3 barbs with a small one=5 knots which is 35 knots. So there is some support.

[miamicanes177]

75kts in 72 hours

[canegrl04]

If this developes slowly,then it has more of a chance to track westerly instead of being a fish

[GeneratorPower]

75kts in 72 hours

That's not very helpful.

[miamicanes177]

NHC takes it to 60kts at 96. Hopefully we can get our first hurricane. 75kts in 72 hours is what I'm thinking

[Hurricaneman]

NHC takes it to 60kts at 96. Hopefully we can get our first hurricane. 75kts in 72 hours is what I'm thinking

Thats quite bullish, but I cant argue, but I would say maybe 55mph in 72 hrs

[storms in NC]

Okay I was gone for 3 hours and they upgraded it to a TD. I knew right befor I left it had a nice S shape to it. But I didn't think they would up grade it so fast

Jesse I can see you now two fingering the key board LOL

[Evil Jeremy]

this thing is so orginized, i know it will become a hurricane!

[sunnyday]

CNN Headline News just announced that this storm is expected to stay out to sea and not threaten the US.

[Trugunzn]