Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

#221 Postby **Bailey1777** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:09 pm

Let me ask it a different way, where would you concentrate your attention at when looking at this disturbance?

ROCK · #222 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:15 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:Let me ask it a different way, where would you concentrate your attention at when looking at this disturbance?

more towards the area sw of Cozumel.....IMO

Stormavoider · #223 Postby **Stormavoider** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:16 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:Let me ask it a different way, where would you concentrate your attention at when looking at this disturbance?

19N 82.5W catches my eye as a possible center. There is not enough rotation to say it's a center though.

Extremeweatherguy · #224 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:19 pm

IMO this area is even more concerning this evening than ever before. The wet phase of the MJO, the warm waters, the decreasing shear, and the increase of the convection in the western Caribbean could lead to a system somewhere in the BOC or southern Gulf before this weekend. Based on what I have heard, it could either then go toward Mexico, TX, LA, MS, AL, or FL. :wink:

We will just have to wait and see what happens...

BTW: Steve Lyons did say tonight on TWC that this was going to TX (but did not mention development).

Nimbus · #225 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:19 pm

The system has historically had its convection sheared off to the east so..
What we are seeing now is the convection filling back in to the west. The lowest pressure is probably closer to the Yucatan but this has been a very broad area of convection from the start and it may have to move into the gulf before it develops. Perhaps the Yucatan channel will focus some of the energy?

ronjon · #226 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:23 pm

According to the GFS, shear is expected to drop below 6 kts by tomorrow am and stay that way for the next 3 days over the SE GOM and western caribbean.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/data/ ... _shear.gif

#227 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:34 pm

Chances are that if this wave doesn't form into a TC over the nextday or so and crosses the Yucatan as such it would head toward north MX/South TX area. But if it were to form soon then I believe it would head toward the weakness along the upper Gulf coast. Alot would depend on what if anything was too develop as to where it would eventually track.

#228 Postby **Rieyeuxs** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:37 pm

[quote="Extremeweatherguy"]IMO this area is even more concerning this evening than ever before. The wet phase of the MJO, the warm waters, the decreasing shear, and the increase of the convection in the western Caribbean could lead to a system somewhere in the BOC or southern Gulf before this weekend. Based on what I have heard, it could either then go toward Mexico, TX, LA, MS, AL, or FL. We will just have to wait and see what happens...[quote]

Whew! Glad they narrowed down the strike area! I was starting to get worried!
:wink:

ROCK · #229 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:39 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:IMO this area is even more concerning this evening than ever before. The wet phase of the MJO, the warm waters, the decreasing shear, and the increase of the convection in the western Caribbean could lead to a system somewhere in the BOC or southern Gulf before this weekend. Based on what I have heard, it could either then go toward Mexico, TX, LA, MS, AL, or FL. We will just have to wait and see what happens...

BTW: Steve Lyons did say tonight on TWC that this was going to TX (but did not mention development).

I agree EWG, needs to be watch further. I did notice some 30knt shear along the NGOM but it is expected to decrease in the next few days.

#230 Postby **HollynLA** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:40 pm

Isn't this the same system that was written off by many this morning?

Honestly, at this time of year, I don't trust anything in the Carribean.

ROCK · #231 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:44 pm

HollynLA wrote::lol: Isn't this the same system that was written off by many this morning?

Honestly, at this time of year, I don't trust anything in the Carribean.

Yep, I didn't but I did quiet down after the complex fell apart.....Funny I was screaming "Fuel the plane" on another board......one of those open mouth insert foot scenarios late last night.....I think we all have those once in a while.... :lol:

beachbum_al · #232 Postby **beachbum_al** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:45 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Chances are that if this wave doesn't form into a TC over the nextday or so and crosses the Yucatan as such it would head toward north MX/South TX area. But if it were to form soon then I believe it would head toward the weakness along the upper Gulf coast. Alot would depend on what if anything was too develop as to where it would eventually track.

I hope you are wrong about this part...

But if it were to form soon then I believe it would head toward the weakness along the upper Gulf coast. Alot would depend on what if anything was too develop as to where it would eventually track.

Extremeweatherguy · #233 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:46 pm

Interesting Houston AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
302 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ONLY INDICATING SOME VERY SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT REMAIN QUITE RESOLUTE WITH
THE INCLUSION OF HIGHISH POPS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SEEMINGLY
SEMI-PERMANENT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS LOOKS TO SHIFT A
TOUCH WEST BY THE WEEKS END...AND TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THIS...PROGS
INCREASE PWS OVER THE REGION (AOA 2.1-2.5") AS THE GULF OPENS SOME
BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH BY WAY OF LIFT. AFTN HEATING/
SEABREEZE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY PLAYERS FOR SCTD PCPN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A TROPICAL WAVE (OR TWO) BY THE WEEK
END. 41

#234 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:47 pm

I posted this earlier today on another forum, and look what's happening now...convection is on the increase right where I made the red circle earlier.

Sanibel · #235 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 8:04 pm

Starting to simmer. I think there's good storm plasma brewing down there.

See if the Honduras blob hooks in.

The BOC blob is showing a hostile boundary.

#236 Postby **Bailey1777** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 8:36 pm

Anybody have a current opinion on this blob. Is it going to fizzle again?Pros and cons of the current synoptics, ect.

#237 Postby **Bailey1777** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 8:46 pm

Storms are much more persistent than yesterday. Needs more concentration.

temujin · #238 Postby **temujin** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 8:46 pm

Rieyeuxs wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:IMO this area is even more concerning this evening than ever before. The wet phase of the MJO, the warm waters, the decreasing shear, and the increase of the convection in the western Caribbean could lead to a system somewhere in the BOC or southern Gulf before this weekend. Based on what I have heard, it could either then go toward Mexico, TX, LA, MS, AL, or FL. We will just have to wait and see what happens...[quote]

Whew! Glad they narrowed down the strike area! I was starting to get worried!

KatDaddy · #239 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 8:56 pm

I am thinking not TX because live along the Upper TX Coast. Bottom line I hope no one along the Gulf Coast is seriously threaten or struck by a tropical cyclone this year. Last year was enough for a lifetime.

Extremeweatherguy · #240 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:12 pm

JB said this will be in the western or central Gulf by the end of the week, but is un-sure about development. We should hear more from him tomorrow..

Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

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