TD #4 East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[tgenius]

Now the question is, can the system maintain itself with the southern half being clear of SAL, or will we see poof?

[EDR1222]

I know that in 2004, the high pressure ridge that was in place was very strong during Frances and I think there was also a zonal flow pattern across the northern U.S. that also helped the ridge strengthen and bend all the way into Florida. So far this year, it doesn't appear that we have that type of set-up. Lots of Lows and troughs pushing out into the Atlantic.

[wxman57]

For those who might be wondering about the climo of all named storms in all months developing within 65nm of 12.5N/23W, I made this map:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/climo3.gif

As you can see, almost all storms developing so far to the north that far east moved out to sea. There were a couple of minor exceptions. One little storm named Hugo in 1989 and another named Dora in 1964.

[EDR1222]

That was definately an extraordinary journey by Dora !

[gatorcane]

For those who might be wondering about the climo of all named storms in all months developing within 65nm of 12.5N/23W, I made this map:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/climo3.gif

As you can see, almost all storms developing so far to the north that far east moved out to sea. There were a couple of minor exceptions. One little storm named Hugo in 1989 and another named Dora in 1964.

but very few take the kind of path that the NHC is currently forecasting with such a quick NW turn....hmmm.

[temujin]

It doesn't really matter if the turn happens tonight, or tomorrow, or the day after... it's still got plenty of time to turn.

[Ptarmigan]

I expect Debby to be a hurricane in a few days.

[Evil Jeremy]

its being sheared apart!

[jaxfladude]

That was definitely an extraordinary journey by Dora !

Shhhhhhhhhhh I live in Jacksonville,FL

[EDR1222]

Sorry Jaxfladude, I'll try to keep it down.

[miamicanes177]

For those who might be wondering about the climo of all named storms in all months developing within 65nm of 12.5N/23W

We need to keep in mind that we do not have a named storm. We have tropical depression 4 at this point.

[seaswing]

I remember Dora! I was very young but I do remember the flooding..... and it seemed to rain and blow for 3 days. After the rain stopped, we had to use a canoe to get around the outside of the house. I remember a cottonmouth coiled up on the front doorstep hanging out catching some rays

[gatorcane]

its being sheared apart!

nope its the dust

[jaxfladude]

Rush Limbaugh commented today.....So he gets his info from someone other the regular media.

I beg you NOT to open that door...and I applaud myself for smashing my fingers before typing anything else

He often jokes that when he make comments about "gloom and doom" global warming-ists things some weird things happen.....

[JonathanBelles]

04l noname on NRl

[tgenius]

04l noname on NRl

What does that mean?

[JonathanBelles]

its now DEBBY i think!

[brunota2003]

its now DEBBY i think!

if it was Debby it would say so...04L Noname = 4th depression for the Atlantic Basin...

[rjgator]

This storm looks like it will block / cutoff the SAL as it moves WNW and maybe conditions will improve in the Western Atlantic and Caribbean for the waves in front of this TD.

[HurricaneHunter914]

IMO, the SAL is too strong for any further strengthening. The current track for TD#4 will kill it.