TD #4 East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Weatherfreak14]

IMO, the SAL is too strong for any further strengthening. The current track for TD#4 will kill it.

IMO, i think it might strengthen to a TS but nothing else because the SAL is there, but this TD is a fighter.

[senorpepr]

04l noname on NRl

It's been 04L NONAME all day. That just means it's a tropical depression. It it were Debby, you would see 04L DEBBY.

[bob rulz]

its now DEBBY i think!

If it was Debby it would say 04L.DEBBY.

[lester]

it's a TD now?
yay

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its been a td all day.

[LAwxrgal]

it's a TD now?
yay

Hasn't it been a TD most of the day? Just wondering....

Anyway, my two cents is that this system, climatologically speaking, is too far north to make the journey all the way across the Atlantic. But you never can tell with these things, there have been storms to do it before.

[JonathanBelles]

04l noname on NRl

It's been 04L NONAME all day. That just means it's a tropical depression. It it were Debby, you would see 04L DEBBY.

my mistake.

[lester]

Its been a td all day.

I just found out a couple of minutes ago

[Robjohn53]

Acording to Dr Grays trapical update at 4:58pm on the weather channel on TV he said this TD has a well defined center of ciculation and could be a hurricane within 12 hours thats what he said tho He also said it was moving to the NW for now should not be a problem to the caribean islands but where from here there not sure, to soon to call.

You mean Dr. Lyons?

Sorry it was Dr. Lyons I appoligise Appreciate the correction

[Brent]

THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS THE GFDL
AND THE BAM MODELS...REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON AN IMMEDIATE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. UNFORTUNATELY...
THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXCELLENTLY WRONG THUS FAR. TD-4 IS
CURRENTLY AT LEAST 60 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE 18Z GFS FORECAST
POSITION FOR 22/00Z...AND THE OTHER MODELS ARE SIMILARLY TOO FAR TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION. AS A RESULT...I AM NOT TOO
ENTHRALLED WITH THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND WE MAY SEE THE CYCLONE
TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF A WEST-RUNNER THAN A RECURVER THROUGH THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS WELL AS WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS AND UPPER-AIR DATA FROM THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS STRONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING...AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALSO APPEARS TO BE
BUILDING WESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE CLIPER MODEL AND
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SKILL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...IF TD-4 DOES NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
20N LATITUDE WITHIN 4 DAYS...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY MISS THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT ALL THE MODELS FORECAST TO DEVELOP.

[LAwxrgal]

Brent, this is the first time I've seen that kind of wording all year....just wow....

And after last week's "season cancel" posts too... heh.... I knew it....

Buckle up folks...we're in for a bumpy ride...

This COULD be our first long-tracker Cape Verde since Irene ? I think last year.....

Another thing is I think folks have been lulled to sleep because of the relative inactivity of the first months of this year....and some big storm could catch folks off guard...

[miamicanes177]

wow...they believe this could be a west mover...

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - Just my prediction.

Slow and steady wins the race. That will be TD4/Debby. While I don't see any real rapid intensification, I think it will continuously and steadily intensify as it moves into the open Atlantic. The first Cape Verde storm will become the first hurricane of 2006 in the process. No threat to land once clear of Cape Verde. It is well south of the NHC track initially but shifts back towards the end (recurves later).

Current - 12.2/23.2 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 12.4/25.5 - 1001mb - 45mph
24 hrs - 12.8/28.0 - 993mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 13.5/31.7 - 985mb - 80mph
48 hrs - 14.4/34.2 - 981mb - 80mph
60 hrs - 15.3/37.5 - 973mb - 90mph
72 hrs - 15.9/40.1 - 968mb - 105mph
96 hrs - 17.3/45.4 - 960mb - 115mph
120 hrs - 20.0/52.1 - 958mb - 115mph

[gatorcane]

so everybody do I deserve some credit here - I just didn't see the NW projected path and now the NHC is following what I said....well almost

[bob rulz]

so everybody do I deserve some credit here - I just didn't see the NW projected path and now the NHC is following what I said....

They heard you.

[boca]

You be the man but are you as funny as Stewart in that discussion about the models being excellently wrong underestimating the ridge.

[gatorcane]

so everybody do I deserve some credit here - I just didn't see the NW projected path and now the NHC is following what I said....

They heard you.

Alright forget about it, for one thing do you expect this thing to just sharply turn NW when the Azores High has been SO dominating all summer, of course there were other reasons that I outlined...

anyway buckle up folks..............

[gatorcane]

You be the man but are you as funny as Stewart in that discussion about the models being excellently wrong underestimating the ridge.

You don't need to the models, just look at what is going on using some sat loops -- those troughs off the EC are not looking strong enough to erode anything anytime soon and the Azores High is not retreating east at all - I just didn't buy it.

[Air Force Met]

so everybody do I deserve some credit here - I just didn't see the NW projected path and now the NHC is following what I said....

You know...you seem to need a lot of pats on the back...since you always point out when you were right about something...

You have some kind of complex we need to know about?