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cycloneye
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#41 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:39 pm

Image
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Extremeweatherguy
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#42 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:39 pm

ROCK wrote:4 days and does not get above 20N this may very well be a serious threat....
I agree. I would hate to see this reaching the Caribbean a week from now, because once there it will probably be aimed for the Gulf/SE U.S.

Let's just hope this one DOES turn out to sea..
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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LAwxrgal
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#43 Postby LAwxrgal » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:43 pm

Just wow.... My how things change in the tropics....Stewart does lay it out for us, doesn't he?
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#44 Postby boca » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:46 pm

Stewart should be a comedian saying that the models have been excellently wrong underestimating the subtropical ridge.
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#45 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:
AS A RESULT...I AM NOT TOO
ENTHRALLED WITH THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND WE MAY SEE THE CYCLONE
TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF A WEST-RUNNER THAN A RECURVER THROUGH THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH


:eek: :eek:

Although I wasn't one of them thinking this would go westward, I know that some folks on here were scoffed at when they said "never say never" in response to the overwhelming opinion that this would be a fish for sure....

I guess time will tell on this one, but for now, it's not the OBVIOUS recurving Fish it was previously.....

P.S. I wonder what Derek thinks about this?.... :lol:

Dusty
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#46 Postby willjnewton » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:01 pm

can someone show me a colorfull Infrared shot of TD four??okay, thankyou :ggreen: :ggreen: :ggreen: :ggreen: :ggreen:
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gatorcane
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#47 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:02 pm

It's 6 hours old, but here you go: :cheesy:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
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#48 Postby willjnewton » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:03 pm

but can someone show me the Infrared imagery thats NOT old??
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#49 Postby rainstorm » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:09 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15
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#50 Postby skysummit » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:11 pm

willjnewton wrote:but can someone show me the Infrared imagery thats NOT old??


This one is pretty recent. (click the pic)

Image
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#51 Postby jasons2k » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:16 pm

I have to say I am now offically interested in this one.
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#52 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:17 pm

So is the NHC's confidence low in the storm curving out to sea?
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
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#53 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:18 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:So is the NHC's confidence low in the storm curving out to sea?


Lets just say it is much lower now, although there is still a chance it could recurve, but certainly drastically lower chances than the 5pm advisory.
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#54 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:20 pm

So now they are thinking this could be an eastern Seaboard problem?
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#55 Postby Senobia » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:21 pm

Curving out to sea....you mean wandering aimlessly in the Atlantic?

If their confidence is low in that, then what is the other scenario where their confidence is high? :eek:
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#56 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:22 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:So now they are thinking this could be an eastern Seaboard problem?
Well it is too early to say, but if it moved west it could either be a Caribbean then GOM issue or it could be an EC issue.
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#57 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:24 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:So now they are thinking this could be an eastern Seaboard problem?
Well it is too early to say, but if it moved west it could either be a Caribbean then GOM issue or it could be an EC issue.


Based on the latest NHC track there is no way possible they could be that far off and this thing ends up in the Carrib & GOM.
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#58 Postby skysummit » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:26 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:So now they are thinking this could be an eastern Seaboard problem?
Well it is too early to say, but if it moved west it could either be a Caribbean then GOM issue or it could be an EC issue.


Based on the latest NHC track there is no way possible they could be that far off and this thing ends up in the Carrib & GOM.


Read the advisory. Their track is based on current model guidance which could be completely wrong. So yes, the westward track is a possibility if that model guidance is wrong.
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#59 Postby tgenius » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:26 pm

HouTXmetro, if the models are totally off as the disco is suggesting is possible, then it is quite possible.
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#60 Postby willjnewton » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:26 pm

can someone show me the latest nhc national hurricane centers 11:oopm mAP PLEASE BECAUSE when I look at the nhc's Map it still says 5:00pm and its already 11:oopm :roll:
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