TD #4 East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

#161 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:15 pm

temujin wrote:Looking good and looking like it's headed W.

Look at that sat loop... the mass itself is moving west, but the swirling ball near the middle of it has a significant northerly component...

the_winds_that_sheared_me · #162 Postby **the_winds_that_sheared_me** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:16 pm

Was this the storm Accuweather was talking about last week when they predicted a Labor day hurricane along the east coast?

MiamiensisWx · #163 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:17 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:Look at that sat loop... the mass itself is moving west, but the swirling ball near the middle of it has a significant northerly component...

Actually, at the end of the loop at the very least, the main LLC seems to have predominantly a just north of due west movement, which has been the consistent movement thus far.

#164 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:18 pm

wobble wars here they go..... :eek:

temujin · #165 Postby **temujin** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:18 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
LAwxrgal wrote:Look at that sat loop... the mass itself is moving west, but the swirling ball near the middle of it has a significant northerly component...

Actually, at the end of the loop at the very least, the main LLC seems to have predominantly a just north of due west movement, which has been the consistent movement thus far.

Yes. I don't have trained eyes. But it seems to me that the movement is a little north of west, but not even enough to call it WNW.

#166 Postby **CronkPSU** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:22 pm

gatorcane wrote:wobble wars here they go.....

LOL each wobble 3000 miles from the US mainland can have a huge effect on the eventual landfall :Pick:

#167 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:24 pm

CronkPSU wrote:
gatorcane wrote:wobble wars here they go.....

LOL each wobble 3000 miles from the US mainland can have a huge effect on the eventual landfall

Well.....right now, in a way, it can! If it wobbles far enough to the north, then it may very well feel the weakness in the ridge down the road. If it wobbles at all to the south, it may by pass that weakness and become a westward long tracker! :lol:

#168 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:24 pm

CronkPSU wrote:
gatorcane wrote:wobble wars here they go.....

LOL each wobble 3000 miles from the US mainland can have a huge effect on the eventual landfall

temujin · #169 Postby **temujin** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:25 pm

CronkPSU wrote:
gatorcane wrote:wobble wars here they go.....

LOL each wobble 3000 miles from the US mainland can have a huge effect on the eventual landfall

This thing could go annular any time now... depends on the outcome of the next eyewall replacement cycle, which I think has already started.

:lol:

(That's a JOKE for you newbies out there)

#170 Postby **CronkPSU** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:28 pm

temujin wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:
gatorcane wrote:wobble wars here they go.....

LOL each wobble 3000 miles from the US mainland can have a huge effect on the eventual landfall

This thing could go annular any time now... depends on the outcome of the next eyewall replacement cycle, which I think has already started.

(That's a JOKE for you newbies out there)

#171 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:32 pm

Look what is coming behind TD 4. It is HUGE. The GFS has been showing it for a couple of day. It now has a good satellite presentation.

Sat Image

Take a look at the size of the 850mb circulation...

#172 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:33 pm

Could this be the LAST Debby?

#173 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:33 pm

Air Force Met wrote:Look what is coming behind TD 4. It is HUGE. The GFS has been showing it for a couple of day. It now has a good satellite presentation.

Sat Image

Take a look at the size of the 850mb circulation...

Oh Lawd! If that can hold together, that could be a potential monster!

Grease Monkey · #174 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:34 pm

All this talk wobbling reminds me of this song "wobble wobble" by 504 boyz:

Now won't you wobble wobble
Let me see you shake it, shake it
Now won't you drop it, drop it
Ohh, take it, take it.....

#175 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:34 pm

Air Force Met wrote:Look what is coming behind TD 4. It is HUGE. The GFS has been showing it for a couple of day. It now has a good satellite presentation.

Sat Image

Take a look at the size of the 850mb circulation...

AFM, would you say, judging by that pic, that the train has definitely "left the station"?

#176 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:35 pm

skysummit wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:Look what is coming behind TD 4. It is HUGE. The GFS has been showing it for a couple of day. It now has a good satellite presentation.

Sat Image

Take a look at the size of the 850mb circulation...

Oh Lawd! If that can hold together, that could be a potential monster!

That would be a week down the road I think...

wxmann_91 · #177 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:36 pm

wxman57 wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:The reason is they are all initialized from the GFS. But if the GFS is wrong, then wouldn't the general consensus follow suit?

GFS and ECMWF differ from each other quite drastically. In fact, the 12Z run of the Euro keeps Debby aoa 20 degrees latitude, or so I've heard elsewhere.

12Z GFS already had a UL developing to the northwest of TD 4. But I don't see it anywhere.

It really doesn't matter exactly where the GFS initialized the center, as the flow its predicting would take anyting in that general region NW. I get the ECMWF at work. Just logged in and ran the 10-day ECMWF in GARP. It doesn't even see the system, and I analyzed at 1mb increments. It does, however, show the ridge that's north of it now sliding eastward to EAST of the Azores in 3-4 days with a trof across the central Atlantic. So it's showing the same breakdown in the ridge as the GFS, it just doesn't see the storm.

I did not mean the models were based off where the center was, I meant they were based off the atmospheric conditions around. So in essence the wrong solution by the GFS (assuming it ends up a wrong solution) affected the entire consensus in the SFWMD map. IMO. I'm not sure if I'm being clear here, but for example, if the GFS develops a deep spurious vortex to the north of a hurricane, and carves a deep weakness there, the models, which are initialized off of the GFS, will likely make the same, wrong, northerly turn. They will all be in good consensus that this will happen, but in the end, they are wrong.

What I was suspicious of was the sudden development of a trof axis just to the wnw of the circulation, carving the weakness. But I don't see one currently. On the MSLP fields the storm goes right through the ridge, which doesn't really make sense either.

gotoman38 · #178 Postby **gotoman38** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:36 pm

Air Force Met wrote:Look what is coming behind TD 4. It is HUGE. The GFS has been showing it for a couple of day. It now has a good satellite presentation.

Sat Image

Take a look at the size of the 850mb circulation...

My goodness.... and the one trailing that near the horn of Africa isn't any tike either!

:eek:

#179 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:39 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
skysummit wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:Look what is coming behind TD 4. It is HUGE. The GFS has been showing it for a couple of day. It now has a good satellite presentation.

Sat Image

Take a look at the size of the 850mb circulation...

Oh Lawd! If that can hold together, that could be a potential monster!

That would be a week down the road I think...

120 hours is 5 days...but you can see it getting close to the coast in

2 days

There are some 40 knot winds in there.

Grease Monkey · #180 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:40 pm

Think they will upgrade to TS by the next TWO?

TD #4 East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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