Hurricane Ioke thread

[wxmann_91]

Without a doubt the most amazing storm of 2006, in ANY basin! Don't care if there have been storms elsewhere that were stronger, to see a storm like this in the CPAC, I have just one word: WOW!

-Andrew92

Daniel would take that title.

[LAwxrgal]

Judging by that pic wxmann, I'd say Daniel was annular...very little banding and a somewhat large eye....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That storm that hit China a few weeks ago would beat Daniel. But both in my option where cat5s.

Monica would take the cake.

[Andrew92]

Without a doubt the most amazing storm of 2006, in ANY basin! Don't care if there have been storms elsewhere that were stronger, to see a storm like this in the CPAC, I have just one word: WOW!

-Andrew92

Daniel would take that title.

I'm certainly not downplaying how strong and awesome Daniel was. Still, Ioke is the more impressive storm in my opinion. Storms like Daniel do happen from time to time in the EPAC; storms like Ioke are extremely rare in the CPAC. That's really what makes, in my opinion, Ioke more amazing and impressive (even if it's not quite as strong), the fact that it's so rare to have such a strong storm in this part of the Pacific.

EDIT: Probably because I'm very humanitarian, but I also like Ioke much more than Monica and Saomai. But, that's just me.

-Andrew92

[Cyclenall]

Yes, Ioke is very impressive but Monica and Daniel are both more amazing, somewhat. The fact of the matter is, we don't see a home-grown category 4 hurricane in the Cpac much at all so save all the images you can, from different soruces and such. Man, this is amazing.

[wxmann_91]

FWIW, enough persistance from the GFS has arisen for me to believe there is a very good chance now of this reaching the WPAC and reintensifying there. The GFDL really doesn't weaken this much, and in fact, intensifies this to a 939 mb cane, not really passing much further north beyond 20N. For at least eight consecutive runs (AFAIK, perhaps more), the GFDL has failed to weaken Ioke much beneath a Cat 3. In addition, many runs of the GFS have carried this across the WPAC, nearing Japan in 2-and-a-half weeks. Yes, it is still >180 hr away, but the persistance intrigues me. Not saying this is going to happen, but there is a possibilility that we may still be dealing with a potent hurricane a week from now, despite SHIPS wanting to weaken this below hurricane status at the 120 hr mark. Besides, SHIPS is known for overdoing shear.

Not trying to tout my own horn but CPHC seems to agree:

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
500 PM HST MON AUG 21 2006

HURRICANE IOKE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY FEATURING A WELL DEFINED EYE/EYEWALL STRUCTURE AND GOOD OVERALL SYMMETRY IN VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE VARIOUS SATELLITE AGENCIES RANGE FROM T5.5 TO T6.0. GIVEN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF IOKE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE TOWARD THE HIGHER DVORAK ESTIMATES. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED IOKE TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 115 KT.

IOKE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT...REPRESENTING A FAIRLY CLIMATOLOGICAL TRACK GIVEN ITS POSITION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EAST AND SLOWED DOWN THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS FOLLOWED THIS TREND...PLACING IOKE WITHIN 30 MILES OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AT 24 HOURS. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS SHIFTED MARKEDLY TO THE WEST. THIS SHIFT IS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF IOKE...THAT WILL CURTAIL ITS NORTHWARD MOTION AND FAVOR A MORE WEST NORTHWEST TRACK. A RESULT...AT 72 HOURS HAVE BEGUN A SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO THE WEST. AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE WEST OR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...THOUGH STILL RIGHT OR NORTH OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS ARE ALSO SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS...AND HAVE ACCORDINGLY ADJUSTED THE LONG TERM SPEED DOWNWARD. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...GIVEN THE RECENT SHIFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 120 KT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER...THE 18Z GFDL AND GFS INDICATE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 120 HOURS...WHILE THE 12Z UKMET SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN LEVELING OUT. WILL FOLLOW THE UKMET TREND...KEEPING IOKE AT CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN AT CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH THEREAFTER. THIS CHANGE REPRESENTS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST CALLING FOR WEAKENING FROM 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTED MORE RAPID WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS...BUT IS BASED UPON A FORECAST TRACK TAKING IOKE NORTH OF 23N. AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK MAINTAINS IOKE AT 21N AND SOUTH...HAVE DISREGARDED THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD IMMEDIATELY PREPARE FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 13.9N 167.4W 115 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 15.2N 168.6W 120 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 16.6N 170.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 17.7N 171.3W 115 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 18.4N 172.2W 110 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 19.9N 174.2W 105 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 21.0N 176.4W 105 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 21.9N 179.0W 105 KT


$$
FORECASTER TANABE/NASH

[CrazyC83]

If Ioke reaches Category 5, history would be made: it would be the first homegrown storm to reach Cat 5 within the Central Pacific. (Three others - Gilma, Patsy and John were EPac crossovers, and two - Oliwa and Paka - reached such in the WPac after forming in the CPac)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think it has pretty much peaked now...But the eye has gotten smaller but on the other hadn the convection is becoming elongated. The trough to its west is startin gto chip on the northwestern side.

Now 120 knots
6 115 knots
12 115 knots
24 110 knots
36 100 knots
48 90 knots
72 80 knots.

Of course if this stops moving north-northwestward into the teeth of this trough. Then its possible it could get a little stronger.

[HurricaneBill]

If Ioke reaches Category 5, history would be made: it would be the first homegrown storm to reach Cat 5 within the Central Pacific. (Three others - Gilma, Patsy and John were EPac crossovers, and two - Oliwa and Paka - reached such in the WPac after forming in the CPac)

I think Patsy formed in the extreme edge of the CPAC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Look what Loke is doing she has facted her northwestern quad. In wraping the reds around. Wow she is about 125 to 130 knots now.

[Cyclenall]

Look what Loke is doing she has facted her northwestern quad. In wraping the reds around. Wow she is about 125 to 130 knots now.

I saw that too. If it wraps all the way around, I'd say 130-135 knots. That's saying that there is a perfect, clear eye with it.

[clfenwi]

WTPA32 PHFO 220600
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IOKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
800 PM HST MON AUG 21 2006

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE IOKE IS NOT A THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

AT 800 PM HST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE IS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 167.8 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB OR 27.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM HST POSITION...14.5 N...167.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER MATSUDA

[clfenwi]

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
1100 PM HST MON AUG 21 2006

IOKE HAS STRENGTHENED FURTHER WITH ITS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 115 KNOTS MAKING IT A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. IT HAS BEEN MOVING DUE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AFTER A GRADUAL TURN FROM A MORE WESTERLY TRACK PREVIOUSLY. IT HAS SO FAR BEEN FOLLOWING GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAIRLY WELL. AS MENTIONED EARLIER MOST MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO RETURN IOKE BACK TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY AFTER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LOW NORTH OF HAWAII MOVING TOWARD THE WEST. WE WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WHICH SHOWS A COMPROMISED BEND TOWARD THE WEST. THE INTENSITY TREND ALSO HAS SOME ROOM FOR DOUBT...THE AMOUNT OF SHEARING IN THE LATER PERIODS IS DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED LOW ALOFT. WE HAVE KEPT THE MODEST WEAKENING TREND OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD IMMEDIATELY PREPARE FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 14.9N 168.1W 115 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 16.2N 169.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 17.3N 170.5W 120 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 18.2N 171.6W 115 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 18.9N 172.6W 110 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 20.3N 174.7W 105 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 21.4N 177.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 22.3N 179.6W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER MATSUDA

[WmE]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IOKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
200 AM HST TUE AUG 22 2006

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM HST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 168.4 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB OR 27.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM HST POSITION...15.1 N...168.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB.


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER MATSUDA

[HURAKAN]

Looking much less impressive!!!

[WmE]

Well, I think it has peaked in intensity.

[HURAKAN]

Well, I think it has peaked in intensity.

100% in agreement. It was a great show nevertheless!!!

[WindRunner]

WTPA42 PHFO 221440
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
500 AM HST TUE AUG 22 2006

IOKE HAS SHOWN ITS FIRST SIGNS OF WEAKENING LOSING ITS WARM CENTER OR EYE...WESTERLY SHEARING WINDS AT HIGH LEVELS APPEAR TO HAVE HAD AN EFFECT. WEVE BEGUN THE SLOW WEAKENING TREND EARLIER BUT HAVE KEPT IOKE AT HURRICANE STRENGTH THRU ALL 120 HOURS IN DEFERENCE TO THE MAJORITY OF INTENSITY MODELS...MANY HOLDING ON TO 100 KNOT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE LATEST 12Z PROJECTION OVER IOKE SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEARING THRU THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND NEARING A STRONG 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH THEREAFTER...A WIND ENVIRONMENT LIKELY TO MORE RAPIDLY WEAKEN IOKE THAN OUR COMPROMISE DOWNTREND INDICATES.

ITS PATH REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY BUT IS GRADUALLY SLOWING WHICH MAY WELL INDICATE SOME SHEARING ALOFT. THE LATE PERIOD WESTERLY TURN OF MOST TRACK MODELS MAY ALSO SUGGEST A HARSH SHEARING SCENARIO AND CONSEQUENT STORM WEAKENING. WE HAVE HELD ON TO OUR EARLIER MORE MODEST TURNING BUT HAVE SLOWED SYSTEM MOVEMENT DOWN TO 5 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 15.6N 168.8W 115 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 16.6N 169.9W 110 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 17.7N 171.0W 110 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 18.5N 172.0W 105 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 19.3N 173.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 20.5N 175.2W 95 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 21.4N 177.2W 90 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 22.0N 179.1W 85 KT


$$
FORECASTER MATSUDA

[Cyclenall]

Is there a reason why the eye is gone? It was going well and Ioke wanted to play a joke by making his/her eye disappear. Weird.

Well, I think it has peaked in intensity.

It's possible that is hasn't due to the chance Ioke could make it into the Wpac. The GFDL model has been showing a flux in strength between a category 3 and category 4 for the next 120 hours. I saw the model run last night. In simple terms, the GFDL model has been almost exact with the strength and timing of this system which is impressive. The GFDL model is a winner with Ioke.

[wxmann_91]

Well, this weakening could be brought on an ERC or shear, or both, but I wouldn't say this has peaked just yet. For now, the trend is weakening, which I will say will probably continue until Ioke weakens below Major status... but if the trough bypasses Ioke and it turns westward into the WPAC, the conditions will be favorable again for it to reintensify.