Hurricane Ileana in EPAC Thread

[WindRunner]

40kts, 1002mb. SHIPS now peaks at 89kts with a probability of RI at 74-84%.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA (EP102006) ON 20060822 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060822 0000 060822 1200 060823 0000 060823 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 104.0W 13.5N 105.9W 15.0N 108.0W 16.6N 110.4W
BAMM 12.5N 104.0W 13.6N 105.8W 15.1N 108.0W 16.8N 110.5W
LBAR 12.5N 104.0W 13.5N 106.1W 15.0N 108.8W 16.5N 111.7W
SHIP 40KTS 54KTS 69KTS 80KTS
DSHP 40KTS 54KTS 69KTS 80KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060824 0000 060825 0000 060826 0000 060827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 112.7W 20.0N 116.5W 20.8N 120.1W 21.3N 123.8W
BAMM 18.3N 113.0W 20.2N 116.8W 21.1N 120.1W 21.8N 123.3W
LBAR 18.0N 114.5W 20.6N 118.9W 23.0N 121.3W 25.0N 122.0W
SHIP 87KTS 86KTS 72KTS 57KTS
DSHP 87KTS 86KTS 72KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 104.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 101.8W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 100.0W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 125NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 125NM


EDIT: fixed the upper number, can't read.

[Scorpion]

Wow, thats a pretty high percentage. EPAC is just rockin this year.

[wxmann_91]

SHIPS now peaks at 89kts with a probability of RI at 74-89%.

** 2006 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: .5/ .6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: .9/ .5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: .7/ .4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: .9/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: .8/ .5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ .7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: .8/ 1.1

Scaled RI index= 5.5 Prob of RI= 84% is 7.5 times the sample mean(11%)
Discrim RI index= 5.3 Prob of RI= 74% is 6.6 times the sample mean(11%)

Source: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/atcf/stext/

[Cyclenall]

Yes, rapid deepening is almost a sure thing with this tropical cyclone. The models have been showing this to be a powerful storm. It's already a tropical storm and looks very healthy.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This system is looking much better with a central core developing. I expect this will be a hurricane in 24 hours. Weak Emille stayed a tropical storm to 25 north. I would think if this traveled northward up the baja at 10 to 15 knots in made it to 85 to 90 knot hurricane. Maybe just maybe califorina could be threaten? We will see.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

This is not 40 knots. It appears to be about 50 knots or 55 knots. I will have to wait for 85h data to scan over this to see how the inner cores doing. I hope the nhc don't go with 40 knots.

[benny]

SHIPS now peaks at 89kts with a probability of RI at 74-89%.

** 2006 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: .5/ .6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: .9/ .5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: .7/ .4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: .9/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: .8/ .5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ .7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: .8/ 1.1

Scaled RI index= 5.5 Prob of RI= 84% is 7.5 times the sample mean(11%)
Discrim RI index= 5.3 Prob of RI= 74% is 6.6 times the sample mean(11%)

Source: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/atcf/stext/

Great link, thanks!!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also my area could use the rain fall from this system...I have only had 2 days of rain in the last two month. Even so they where both over .10th of a inch from system that messed up dry spell up.

I can hope can't I?

I mean in the last two months. A nice heavy rain with 50 mph winds!!! If not then I can hope for a nice powerful storm this winter...Hopefully another big winstorm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

85h keeps missing this...

But any ways a Cdo with minus 80 convection has formed right over the center...With banding overall quads. This thing is likely 50 knots. I see a IRC starting soon...I'm thinking hurricane quickly with this thing...Already some signs of curving near the center=start of eye.

Now 50 knots
6 55 knots
12 65 knots
24 75 knots
36 85 knots
48 95 knots
72 85 knots

[cycloneye]

795
WTPZ45 KNHC 220257
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
800 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BURSTING PATTERN WITH CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -80C WITHIN A DEVELOPING CDO. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE ALL AT T2.5. GIVEN THE NEW CDO AND
CONTINUED BANDING FEATURES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP
SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO EXTEND OUT PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 150 NMI
ON THE NORTH SIDE...THOUGH LITTLE IN SITU DATA HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE.

ILEANA IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. GUIDANCE
IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED SUGGESTING A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT DAYS FOUR AND
FIVE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP WEST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE GFS AND A WEAKER FEATURE IS FORECAST
BY THE NOGAPS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THAT
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO CAUSE
ILEANA TO TURN TO THE RIGHT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NOGAPS...WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE THE VORTEX INITIALIZED WELL.

ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ILEANA TO
POSSIBLY RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN -- VERY LOW WIND SHEAR...HIGH
SSTS...LARGE AMOUNTS OF LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AND
INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE FEATURES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SUGGESTS ABOUT AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 25 KT OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS
ILEANA IS PREDICTED TO REACH HURRICANE FORCE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE BEYOND 72 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES COOLER SSTS AND MORE STABLE AIR...SO
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING THOUGH...IF
ILEANA REACHED MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 13.3N 104.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 14.1N 106.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 15.1N 108.3W 70 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 16.6N 110.2W 80 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 18.0N 112.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 21.0N 118.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That sucks its going to fellow the other storms so far this season...In not go northward up the heat zone between the Baja in 120 west. Not fair!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html


Nice central core. Nice curve band around half the innercore. That is going to be wraping around over the next 6 to 12 hours. Banding forming nicely. very cold convection right on top of it.

I say 50-55 knots. I like my thinking on strengthing very much. The 95 knots might be a little low.

[benny]

that's got hurricane written all over it by tomorrow..

[Cyclenall]

85h keeps missing this...

But any ways a Cdo with minus 80 convection has formed right over the center...With banding overall quads. This thing is likely 50 knots. I see a IRC starting soon...I'm thinking hurricane quickly with this thing...Already some signs of curving near the center=start of eye.

Now 50 knots
6 55 knots
12 65 knots
24 75 knots
36 85 knots
48 95 knots
72 85 knots

Man, your thinking the exact same thing that I am!! I really do believe this is going to be rapidly strengthening and this will should be a hurricane tomorrow morning if what I'm starting to see is true. The signs of the curving near the center means RI. It's happened with Bud and Ioke so far. The models have shown it, the NHC talked about rapid intensification in their discussion, and signs point to a powerful hurricane soon. I can't wait to see this bomb out like crazy!

[wxmann_91]

I think we would all agree a hurricane is likely within 24 hours.

FWIW, I'm not sure what SHIPS RI index had for Wilma... but I believe it was around 80% as well.

[HurricaneBill]

That sucks its going to fellow the other storms so far this season...In not go northward up the heat zone between the Baja in 120 west. Not fair!

Wait till later in the season. EPAC storms tend to curve back towards Mexico.

[LAwxrgal]

In that picture that Matt posted, is that slither of red on the right side of the center the beginning of an eye wall in this system?

[Cyclenall]

In that picture that Matt posted, is that slither of red on the right side of the center the beginning of an eye wall in this system?

It very well could be. I'd say yes but I haven't checked out the images in full detail yet. I've been wondering for a bit how fast Ileana will strengthen since this cyclone has been really going at it today. The banding was excellent this afternoon and it looked more higher-end TS then a weak one. The rain bands are gone for the time being since Ileana is pulling another Bud which showed a circle bursting pattern with very deep convection at the center and expanding. When that curve and turn starts appearing that "cuts" through the deep convection, that's when the RI will be in full gear.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a blown this forecast some what. The inner core is there with a half banding eye over the eastern side. With banding starting to form over the western. But the overall convection near the core has become less organized. I will keep this at 55 knots. Its very hard to tell when these fuses will be lighted or if they will be put out. Its so easy for it to go anywhere.

[clfenwi]

Pasch must have had a thesaurus in hand when he wrote this discussion. 'Propitious' is a symonym for 'favorable'

WTPZ45 KNHC 220850
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006

ILEANA'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH
BETTER-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...45 KT...AND 45 KT FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. ALSO...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS
YIELD AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AN 0308 UTC
SSM/I IMAGE SUGGESTED A WELL-ORGANIZED...AND PERHAPS
STRONGER...SYSTEM. HOWEVER THERE IS NO OPERATIONALLY-ACCEPTED
TECHNIQUES FOR ESTIMATING INTENSITY FROM SUCH IMAGERY. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET...PERHAPS CONSERVATIVELY...AT 45 KT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUCH AS SSTS... VERTICAL SHEAR...MOIST
MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...AND INSTABILITY...ALL APPEAR TO BE
PROPITIOUS FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY STRENGTHENING UP TO 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...DECREASING SSTS ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 295/12. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE GFS PREDICTS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY THAT TIME...IT
IS ANTICIPATED THAT ILEANA WILL BE WEAKENING...AND NOT RESPOND
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS RATHER
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
NHC FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 14.0N 105.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 15.0N 107.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 16.3N 109.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 17.6N 111.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 18.8N 113.6W 90 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 21.5N 119.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH