TD #4 East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This should answer your quastion Will...Even so I believe over the northwestern quad there is 40 to 45 mph winds.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/FOUR.GIF

[TampaFl]

Nice view!!!

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls

[Thunder44]

Well it's still a TD at 5am due to satellite estimates. But they do mention it probably become a TS soon, since it appears to developing more convection near the center.

[rainstorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

looks like its no threat to land. may wander the central atlantic

[Thunder44]

QS pass this morning shows a 35kt wind barb very close to the center:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas32.png

Scat ambiguties on NRL show more areas of 35kt - 40kt winds:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think they should upgrade at 8am. Why because of 35 knots near the center plus the LLC has become very well organized an the convection has formed near it. It looks like the convection is moving over it.

[vbhoutex]

One rain contaminated 35 kt wind bard is not enoughto do an upgrade on.

[Thunder44]

One rain contaminated 35 kt wind bard is not enoughto do an upgrade on.

I thought only black barbs where rain contaminated.

[vbhoutex]

One rain contaminated 35 kt wind bard is not enoughto do an upgrade on.

I thought only black barbs where rain contaminated.

You are correct. Maybe my eyes are bad, but I didn't find any 35 kt wind barbs. I am not an expert, but I doubt they would upgrade based on one 35 kt wind barb, especially as far out in the Atlantic as it is. And yes I do know there are TS Warnings for the CV Islands.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree that quickscats have there draw backs...Really so under convection. But I been watching this system all night, in what I see is that the deep convection started out along ways away from the LLC. But now the LLC is half or more under it...With it becoming better organized. With also the quickscat shows a some what better formed LLC.

Looking at recon data from other systems that looks like this one...I would say this most likely would be about 40 to 45 knots. But looking at this system as is with out data to back that up on hand.

Some systems like Katrina,Rita where weaker then what they looked as they where Tropical depression/storms. While systems like Alison,Arlene,Alberto just to give some A names...Where all stronger then what the numbers shown for them. Alberto and Arlene both had only 1.0t's when they where upgraded with convection getting sheared away. I believe this is in the middle of the both...A organized system but not the kind of storm like Katrina,Rita. I believe those systems looking at what I'v looked at are in another class of storm.

You got the sheared systems-Alberto,Arlene-normally have a higher winds then the t numbers.

You got the normal storm, which forms which fellows the t number rules.

You got katrina and Rita,Wilma's. Which are like Pacific storms. Which start out with a lower then t number. But once they get going they go crazy.

I believe this one is between the middle and the sheared system.


Here is a pic.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/FOUR.GIF

[Thunder44]

One rain contaminated 35 kt wind bard is not enoughto do an upgrade on.

I thought only black barbs where rain contaminated.

You are correct. Maybe my eyes are bad, but I didn't find any 35 kt wind barbs. I am not an expert, but I doubt they would upgrade based on one 35 kt wind barb, especially as far out in the Atlantic as it is. And yes I do know there are TS Warnings for the CV Islands.

No, I'm sure they are waiting for other satellite estimates. I would expect an upgrade more likely at 11am.

[tgenius]

So I take it the TD is moving NW now by the disco @5am? I said no Hurricanes in August.... and right now that prediction looks like it may be wrong. even if it is a fish!

I hope the CV island people take care of themselves, flash flooding on an island is no joke.

[ThunderMate]

Wow, TD 4 has become a small tight compact system.... does anyone here think it will defy the forcast of turning NW today and turn back to the west or continue WNW??

[P.K.]

There was a question a while ago on what wind speeds the MetArea II forecasts would use. It does look like a ten minute average to me, but that is what I would have expected.

SECURITE
Weather bulletin for METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
Toulouse, Tuesday 22 August 2006 at 09 UTC.

- Wind speed in BEAUFORT SCALE - Sea : Total significant -
- Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger
than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice
the significant height.


Part 1 : WARNING :Nr 381


Part 2 : General synopsis, Tuesday 22 at 00 UTC

Low 1001 58N24W moving northward. Associated trough southeastward
Low area 1012 north Morocco slow-moving.
Low 1004 west of Newfoundland, expected 991 51N48W by 23/00UTC,
then 989 52N43W by 23/12UTC.
High 1026 east of AZORES moving southwest and weakening.
High 1027 37N43W moving eastward, expected 1026 38N33W by 23/12
UTC.

ITCZ along 15N16W 10N29W 08N48W.
Tropical low 1007 near 12.2 North and 23.2 West ( about 170 MN
south-southeast of the southern most Cape Verde Islands) at 22/03
UTC, moving West-Northwest at 13 kt, expected 15.9 North and 30.6
West by 23/12UTC.
Thermical low 1003 over Mali.


Part 3 : Area forecasts to Wednesday 23 at 12 UTC

CAPE VERDE :
In far south : Northeast increasing gradually 5 to 7 with gusts
from southeast, becoming Cyclonic 6 to 8 with gusts later, then 7
to 9 with gusts 55 kt at end. Becoming rough. Strong thunderstorms.
Elsewhere : East or Northeast 4 or 5. Moderate.

SIERRA LEONE :
Cyclonic 6 to 8 with gusts, increasing 7 to 9 with gusts 55 kt at
end. Moderate or rough. Strong thunderstorms.


Part 4 : outlook for next 24 hours :

High 1026 over Azores Islands.
Threat of Southwest near gale or gale in FARADAY Wednesday
afternoon.
Cyclonic gale to severe gale expected in CAPE VERDE.


SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,

WARNING NR 381 , TUESDAY 22 AUGUST 2006 AT 0835 UTC

GENERAL SYNOPSIS, TUESDAY 22 AT 00 UTC
LOW AREA 1012 NORTH MOROCCO SLOW-MOVING.
TROPICAL LOW 1007 NEAR 12.2 NORTH AND 23.2 WEST ( ABOUT 170 MN
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN MOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS) AT 22/03
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KT, EXPECTED 15.9 NORTH AND 30.6
WEST BY 23/12UTC.


CADIZ, GIBRALTAR STRAIT
CONTINUING TO 22/15UTC
IN STRAIT AND VICINITY, EASTERLY 8. GUSTS.

SIERRA LEONE
CONTINUING TO 23/12 AT LEAST.
CYCLONIC 8, INCREASING 9. THUNDERSQUALLS WITH VIOLENT GUSTS.

CAPE VERDE
FROM 23/00UTC TO 24/00UTC AT LEAST
IN FAR SOUTH : CYCLONIC 8 WITH GUSTS INCREASING 9 WITH VIOLENT
GUSTS.=

[wxman57]

You might want to look at these two McIDAS imags I just snapped:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby10.gif

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby11.gif

There's an "interesting" feature near the center of this depression that looks very much like an eye. I thought it was just an overshooting top so I zoomed in on debby11.gif. It really looks like an indentation, but when I zoomed back out it looked more like an overshooting top to the southwest of the real center. I think it's an overshooting top.

I remember back in the very busy 1995 season that a storm formed off Africa which the NHC was ignoring because of Opal or Luis. They could no longer ignore it when it developed what I quote them as saying "a cloud-free central area" -- i.e., an eye.

[storms in NC]

IMO I think it will stay on a wnw track. I don't think the TD will be strong to go though the weakness of the ridge. If it does then yes it will turn NW to the weakness of the ridge. But right now I don't think it will. But will recuver out to sea when it get close to the east cost like around 60 to 65 west. For we are having to many fronts this year and will push it on off to sea. JMO

[cheezyWXguy]

I agree that quickscats have there draw backs...Really so under convection. But I been watching this system all night, in what I see is that the deep convection started out along ways away from the LLC. But now the LLC is half or more under it...With it becoming better organized. With also the quickscat shows a some what better formed LLC.

Looking at recon data from other systems that looks like this one...I would say this most likely would be about 40 to 45 knots. But looking at this system as is with out data to back that up on hand.

Some systems like Katrina,Rita where weaker then what they looked as they where Tropical depression/storms. While systems like Alison,Arlene,Alberto just to give some A names...Where all stronger then what the numbers shown for them. Alberto and Arlene both had only 1.0t's when they where upgraded with convection getting sheared away. I believe this is in the middle of the both...A organized system but not the kind of storm like Katrina,Rita. I believe those systems looking at what I'v looked at are in another class of storm.

You got the sheared systems-Alberto,Arlene-normally have a higher winds then the t numbers.

You got the normal storm, which forms which fellows the t number rules.

You got katrina and Rita,Wilma's. Which are like Pacific storms. Which start out with a lower then t number. But once they get going they go crazy.

I believe this one is between the middle and the sheared system.


Here is a pic.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/FOUR.GIF

Well i wouldnt exactly call it sheared, at least not very much...That advisory position is a little more than 3 hours old so you can assume that the center is inside the deep convection

[Thunder44]

You might want to look at these two McIDAS imags I just snapped:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby10.gif

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby11.gif

There's an "interesting" feature near the center of this depression that looks very much like an eye. I thought it was just an overshooting top so I zoomed in on debby11.gif. That's definitely the center, near 13.3N/25.8W. Seems to be an indentation in the cloud tops and not an overshooting top.

I remember back in the very busy 1995 season that a storm formed off Africa which the NHC was ignoring because of Opal or Luis. They could no longer ignore it when it developed what I quote them as saying "a cloud-free central area" -- i.e., an eye. I'll want to study a few more image, but my initial impression is that it has the appearance of an eye, at the very least. QuikSCAT doesn't show any winds near hurricane force, though. Could just be a transient break in the convection.

That definitely looks like a eye to me, with wisking clouds in the center in that image you have there. Although I don't believe it's anything near a hurricane. I was wondering if you were showing the right storm for moment.

[ThunderMate]

wow, nice photo 57...looks scary.

[tgenius]

It almost looks like a belly button