Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

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TampaFl
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#301 Postby TampaFl » Tue Aug 22, 2006 6:38 am

Sanibel wrote:Serious noctural red-top flare last night. Upper trough visible in cloud shape. Should hamper any formation, but system is now persisting with round shape.



Looking foreward to WXman57's thoughts on this this morning. Also noted upper low just south of the FL Panhandle drifting slowly west south west. Any thoughts on how this might/might not affect this system??. If any thing it could bring alot of rain to Florida this weekend if it were to move into the Eastern Gulf. But most likley that will not happen.

Robert 8-)
Last edited by TampaFl on Tue Aug 22, 2006 6:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Sanibel
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#302 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 22, 2006 6:42 am

My personal opinion is I've seen more than one persisting disturbance with this kind of shape and intensity beat NHC's "unfavorable" comments before. Especially in this area.
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#303 Postby rockyman » Tue Aug 22, 2006 6:48 am

I'm watching the north coast of Honduras (south of the big blob) for an LLC...I see what could be low level turning there (the high/cold clouds tops are not obscuring this area)...Also, systems tend to "tighten up" in the Gulf of Honduras because they have land on 2 sides (similar to the Bay of Campeche effect)....we'll know more once the visibles start rolling in :)
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#304 Postby caneman » Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

TampaFl wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Serious noctural red-top flare last night. Upper trough visible in cloud shape. Should hamper any formation, but system is now persisting with round shape.



Looking foreward to WXman57's thoughts on this this morning. Also noted upper low just south of the FL Panhandle drifting slowly west south west. Any thoughts on how this might/might not affect this system??. If any thing it could bring alot of rain to Florida this weekend if it were to move into the Eastern Gulf. But most likley that will not happen.

Robert 8-)


I think that ULL North of the system would help enhance it but not close enough to disrupt. however, the one to West seems to be aiding the convection but disrupting development but that ULL is slowly moving away. I want to see if it sustains it self in the next day.
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#305 Postby caneman » Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:30 am

Pretty doggone impressive. Ship reporting 33 mph sustained winds and it's not even in the middle of the system but rather just outside the NE section.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... E&dist=250
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#306 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 22, 2006 8:09 am

The NHC is just not concerned about this disturbance at all. I noticed on some of NWS discussions that a "cool" front is expected by the models to drop down south into the GOM in about a week. The sooner we get these fronts the better off our chances of preventing any tropical mischief along the NW and Central Gulf coast.
The NE GOM is another story. Anyway, I keep on reading how the "real" season is about to get started but here we are August 22nd 2006 and all we have is a tropical depression several thousands mile away and nothing else. As of now, I still expect at least 3-4 hurricanes from now until October 5th. Let's hope they all form in the Atlantic and stay out there.
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#307 Postby skysummit » Tue Aug 22, 2006 8:11 am

Uhhh...yea....just like a normal season. It's about to get busier.
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#308 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 8:17 am

Looking at first visibles this morning. There does appear to be anti-cyclone spin to the clouds but there is a big outflow boundary coming north from the thunderstorms and cloud tops have warmed significantly.
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#309 Postby tropicsgal05 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 8:24 am

Our local mets say there watching this system and that's about it. I guess if the NHC see's any formation they will put up an invest right?
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#310 Postby curtadams » Tue Aug 22, 2006 8:31 am

According to CIMSS wind analysis there is absolutely no tropical system whatsover there. No even a trace of 850 vorticity. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html
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#311 Postby weatherrabbit_tx » Tue Aug 22, 2006 8:35 am

tropicsgal05 wrote:Our local mets say there watching this system and that's about it. I guess if the NHC see's any formation they will put up an invest right?


they should, the system doenst look that impressive as it did last night
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#312 Postby Lindaloo » Tue Aug 22, 2006 8:50 am

Don't mean to hijack, but today is wxman57's birthday. :D

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88521
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#313 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 22, 2006 8:54 am

mike815 wrote:wrong system but yes in fact the ukmet i believe turns it back west


Whom are you talking to mike815? :wink:
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#314 Postby mike815 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 8:55 am

huh yea this was the wrong thread but never mind now
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#315 Postby drezee » Tue Aug 22, 2006 8:58 am

I need to let you people know that the wind associated was with an outflow boundary. The pressure rose when it should have been naturally falling and a abrupt and strong change in wind direction is not a typical characteristic of a developing tropical system. I think that this has a chance in the S GOM if it gets there in tact.
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#316 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:35 am

Nope, talked to my brother...looks a little weaker today, but a new day brings new results. Wait and see approach.
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#317 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:36 am

tropicsgal05 wrote:Our local mets say there watching this system and that's about it. I guess if the NHC see's any formation they will put up an invest right?


Where are your local mets? Just curious as your location isn't listed in your profile, so we don't know. :)
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Dean4Storms
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#318 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:54 am

Something to keep an eye on. The Tropical Wave now near Jamaica (At least the northern extent) should catch up to this area of disturbed weather in the NW Carib. tonight/tomorrow time frame. It will be interesting to see what if anything it does to enhance low level convergence.
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#319 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:04 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Something to keep an eye on. The Tropical Wave now near Jamaica (At least the northern extent) should catch up to this area of disturbed weather in the NW Carib. tonight/tomorrow time frame. It will be interesting to see what if anything it does to enhance low level convergence.


Just as I said a couple of days ago...

SouthFloridawx wrote:This system should get some help from a tropical wave in the eastern central Caribbean.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...


A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING PUERTO RICO ALONG
67W/68W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE ALL
BY ITSELF REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE CAUSING ANY DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ONE CELL OF STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE WATERS JUST WEST OF
PUERTO RICO RIGHT NOW.
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#320 Postby skysummit » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:12 am

The NAM has finally finished its 12z run. Here's 84 hours out. It shows a swirl approaching the Mobile/Pensacola area, but I don't see any surface low pressure reflection for it. Earlier runs of the NAM had this going near the Florida Big Bend area.

Image
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