TD #4 East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Thunder44]

Dvorak T number estimates show a 35kt TS now.

22/1130 UTC 13.6N 25.5W T2.5/2.5 04L

But the models held to TD.

I know but look for another run of the models just in case. And they can always decide to upgrade before they sent out the advisory.

[wxman57]

New QS pass just posted

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 2_04as.png

That's the same that I showed before.

Page showed up blank for me up until about 5 minutes ago. Must have been my cache. My bad.

It was blank for me, too.

[miamicanes177]

But the models held to TD.

I think the NHC will go with the 2.5 estimate and call it a TS at the 10am. As Stewart said last night, the models have been excellently wrong.

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't know if you guys noticed this yet but, the models have trended a little farther to the west today.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

I am wondering ultimately if this system is going to get deep enough to be influenced by the Mid-Upper Level steering flow.

[storms in NC]

I asked this a page back. Which of the models has been the best this year?

[gatorcane]

But the models held to TD.

I think the NHC will go with the 2.5 estimate and call it a TS at the 10am. As Stewart said last night, the models have been excellently wrong.

and excellently is not even a word

If it stays weak west bound it goes, if it gets stronger it should move into the weakness.

[mike815]

well see im not biting on recurvature still

[btangy]

If this is an upper level feature right?
How would that affect the mid to low level ridge in the Atlantic?
....
If the UTT does not weaken the ridge and the system remains in the low levels to lower mid levels we won't see recurvature.

Yes, it is mostly an upper level feature, and I would normally be cautious about using 200mb to determine any sort of steering patterns. However, in this case, the 200mb potential vorticity anomaly is large enough and strong enough to cause a vorticity signature further below at 500mb, e.g., which can affect the steering flow for tropical cyclones if they are strong enough. If one simply looked at the 500mb vorticity forecast, it would appear as though the disturbance (i.e. the weakness in the ridge) sort of pops out from no where... since there are no significant mid-latitude shortwaves approaching the area, and one might be quite suspicious of what the GFS and other models are depicting. However, the source of the weakness if further aloft initially as indicated by the tropopause analysis maps and is well initialized by the models. I feel the weakness in the ridge at the mid-levels should eventually develop from the top down. BTW, here's the latest tropopause map from the 06Z GFS analysis from SUNY Albany still showing that tongue of greens indicating a depressed tropopause (cyclonic vorticity at upper levels):

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/rm ... 082206.jpg

Your second point about the system remaining a shallow, weak system is completely valid. Then, only the low level steering would matter, and the upper level feature doesn't not have any projection/signature at low levels and would only serve to increase the deep layer shear over the system.

[willjnewton]

have the global computer forecast models have really took this system stronger and further WEST??and will this likely be a east coast threat in the next couple of weeks???please explain okay, thankyou

[willjnewton]

have the global computer forecast models have really took this system stronger and further WEST??and will this likely be a east coast threat in the next couple of weeks???please explain okay, thankyou

[willjnewton]

have the global computer forecast models have really took this system stronger and further WEST??and will this likely be a east coast threat in the next couple of weeks???please explain okay, thankyou

[DESTRUCTION5]

have the global computer forecast models have really took this system stronger and further WEST??and will this likely be a east coast threat in the next couple of weeks???please explain okay, thankyou

Don't worry Will...99.99% Fish..!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

The depression is looking a bit less impressive now per latest infra-red, visible, and water vapor imagery this morning, and the convective consolidating has waned, resulting in warmer cloudtops. It also appears that some mid-level SAL intrusion may be occurring, resulting in rather anemic convective activity now and a more ragged presentation. It also appears that mid-level shear has increased a bit due to the mid-level ridging weakness possibly forming to the depression's northwest.

[gatorcane]

The depression is looking a bit less impressive now per latest infra-red, visible, and water vapor imagery this morning, and the convective consolidating has waned, resulting in warmer cloudtops. It also appears that some mid-level SAL intrusion may be occurring, resulting in rather anemic convective activity now and a more ragged presentation. It also appears that mid-level shear has increased a bit due to the mid-level ridging weakness possibly forming to the depression's northwest.

It's inevitable it would start to weaken looking at the SAL out there....it doesn't surprise me one bit and of course a west-runner the more it weakens.

[mike815]

i totally agree gator exactly

[gatorcane]

i totally agree gator exactly

I do think that TD #4 will do a good job eating away at the SAL so that the next wave off Africa should have a really good chance at developing.

[Andy_L]

[/quote]Don't worry Will...99.99% Fish..!!![/quote]

hmmmm....thats a wee bit misleading to state with that degree of CERTAINTY that its going to be a fish isn't it?? When the Pro mets aren't being even remotely close to that certain........

[mike815]

yup way to early with such a high certainty yea gator im lookin at that next one to emerge off of africa it should have a pretty good shot

[Thunder44]

The depression is looking a bit less impressive now per latest infra-red, visible, and water vapor imagery this morning, and the convective consolidating has waned, resulting in warmer cloudtops. It also appears that some mid-level SAL intrusion may be occurring, resulting in rather anemic convective activity now and a more ragged presentation. It also appears that mid-level shear has increased a bit due to the mid-level ridging weakness possibly forming to the depression's northwest.

I think it became a TS already before this slight decay in satellite appearance.

[Trugunzn]

The SAL is choking it. Any body have a SAL map?