TD #4 East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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MiamiensisWx

#301 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:42 am

Thunder44 wrote:I think it became a TS already before this slight decay in satellite appearance.


I tend to agree, as satellite presentation and the synoptical environment supported that this may have been, and still may be, a low-end tropical storm, due to the still impressive structural organization.
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#302 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:43 am

willjnewton wrote:have the global computer forecast models have really took this system stronger and further WEST??and will this likely be a east coast threat in the next couple of weeks???please explain okay, thankyou :roll:



The most, IMO this thing will do is bring some high surf along the east coast.
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#303 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:43 am

So maybe my prediction of no hurricanes in August will hold true? :)
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#304 Postby mike815 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:43 am

tru it might have been but with that it may move more west in this more weakened state
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#305 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:49 am

tgenius wrote:So maybe my prediction of no hurricanes in August will hold true? :)


I wouldn't go by just a few satellite images. This may be temporary and attempt of the storm to reorganzie itself. Things can change quickly.
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#306 Postby James » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:54 am

Am I right in thinking that convection tends to wane at this time of the day in most cases? I'm not saying this is the deciding factor, just wondering if it might be one of them?
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#307 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:56 am

I think we will see another blowup of convection within 2-5 hrs
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#308 Postby craptacular » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:57 am

So we'll have to wait a bit longer to welcome Debby.
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#309 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:58 am

craptacular wrote:So we'll have to wait a bit longer to welcome Debby.


IMO the way that the storm is looking and it is to experence some dry air. I think that we might have debby today but unlikely. Maybe tommrow.
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#310 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:58 am

craptacular wrote:So we'll have to wait a bit longer to welcome Debby.


Shouldn't have to wait too much longer.
22/1130 UTC 13.6N 25.5W T2.5/2.5 04L -- Atlantic Ocean
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#311 Postby Lowpressure » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:58 am

Still a TD at 11:00, NHC does not sound that impressed with system.
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#312 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 22, 2006 9:59 am

nope TD #4 continues to weaken and the latest discussion indicates it will NOT be upgraded at this time, also shear is supposed to increase over the system and the SSTs that it is moving into are not as high as they were. Like all wave thus far, there best chance is just off the African Coast but when they move away from it its a warzone out there in the Atlantic still, but the conditions are getting better as each day goes by but not quite there yet.
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#313 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:01 am

Here's a new McIDAS image:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby12.gif

Rather disorganized as far as the LLC. Winds may be close to TS force in some areas. Pretty small storm, too. That small size could help it survive the projected wind shear increase.
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#314 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:12 am

Thunder44 wrote:
tgenius wrote:So maybe my prediction of no hurricanes in August will hold true? :)


I wouldn't go by just a few satellite images. This may be temporary and attempt of the storm to reorganzie itself. Things can change quickly.


I know that..but the 11am disco supports that this won't reach a TS even 120 hrs out.. so that would put us at about August 27th ;)
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#315 Postby Trugunzn » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:13 am

Looks like maybe trying to reorganize itself?
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#316 Postby storms in NC » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:16 am

If it stay weak it will miss the weak in the ridge?
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#317 Postby Trugunzn » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:18 am

Can someone post an infrade image?
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#318 Postby Lowpressure » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:19 am

A weaker system will tend more westerly, yes in this case. Hard to tell if it would miss the weakness entirely.
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#319 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:23 am

Trugunzn wrote:Can someone post an infrade image?


Image
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#320 Postby HurricaneJim » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:23 am

I wouldn't write this thing off just yet. Even a CAT 1 into NY/NJ area would jack things up in a serious way. They haven't had a tropical visitation in quite some time.

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