Hurricane Ileana in EPAC Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2006 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 14:18:07 N Lon : 106:04:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 991.4mb/ 63.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.9 4.2 6.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -37.1C Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[WmE]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2006 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 14:18:07 N Lon : 106:04:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 991.4mb/ 63.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.9 4.2 6.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -37.1C Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Nice, I like these rapid deepening systems in the Pacific.

[WmE]

It has fairly good environmental conditions, how strong can it get?

[HURAKAN]

WEATHERUNDERGROUND:


Looks like Ileana is rocking the house!!!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA (EP102006) ON 20060822 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060822 1200 060823 0000 060823 1200 060824 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.5N 106.1W 15.8N 108.4W 17.3N 111.0W 18.5N 113.6W
BAMM 14.5N 106.1W 15.8N 108.7W 17.2N 111.4W 18.5N 114.0W
LBAR 14.5N 106.1W 15.8N 108.6W 17.6N 111.5W 19.1N 114.3W
SHIP 50KTS 63KTS 75KTS 82KTS
DSHP 50KTS 63KTS 75KTS 82KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060824 1200 060825 1200 060826 1200 060827 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.4N 115.8W 20.2N 119.4W 20.6N 122.4W 21.6N 124.7W
BAMM 19.4N 116.1W 20.1N 119.4W 20.6N 122.1W 21.7N 124.6W
LBAR 20.3N 116.7W 22.5N 119.8W 25.0N 120.3W 30.2N 118.8W
SHIP 85KTS 79KTS 66KTS 56KTS
DSHP 85KTS 79KTS 66KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 106.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 103.9W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 101.8W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 125NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 125NM

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a cane!
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/ILEANA.GIF

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a cane!
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/ILEANA.GIF

[HURAKAN]

Agree. Since Ileana began I have been updating tormenta.net and saying that even though the NHC said this was the intensity, the images from satellites were saying she was stronger.

[WmE]

Yeah, I have to agree too. Nice looking system.

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful storm!!!

[Cyclenall]

I thought that rapid strengthening would occur sooner but instead Ileana chooses to strengthen more steadily-quickly. The RI has been delayed.

[benny]

I thought that rapid strengthening would occur sooner but instead Ileana chooses to strengthen more steadily-quickly. The RI has been delayed.

RI is ongoing.. yesterday at 1200 utc this system was 25-30 kt.. now it is very close to a hurricane. Very nice on satellite. Those EPAC things seem to get going faster than any other place in the world typically... yesterday morning there was a broad circulation and now.. hurricane...the question is how strong can it get before it hits cooler water?

[LAwxrgal]

Looking at Hurakan's pic that's one of the nicest-looking TS's I've ever seen...if it's not a hurricane now it will be very soon.

[Cyclenall]

I think I'm starting to finally see the start of a eye. I thought this would happen sooner but anyways.

[Thunder44]

395
WHXX01 KMIA 221838
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE ILEANA (EP102006) ON 20060822 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060822 1800 060823 0600 060823 1800 060824 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.1N 107.3W 16.5N 109.5W 17.8N 111.7W 18.9N 113.9W
BAMM 15.1N 107.3W 16.5N 109.6W 17.8N 112.0W 18.9N 114.2W
LBAR 15.1N 107.3W 16.7N 109.6W 18.1N 112.2W 19.6N 114.9W
SHIP 65KTS 80KTS 90KTS 96KTS
DSHP 65KTS 80KTS 90KTS 96KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060824 1800 060825 1800 060826 1800 060827 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.7N 115.8W 20.8N 118.8W 21.6N 120.9W 22.8N 122.0W
BAMM 19.8N 116.2W 20.8N 119.3W 21.6N 121.5W 22.7N 122.9W
LBAR 20.8N 117.2W 23.3N 119.9W 26.1N 119.2W 31.6N 116.8W
SHIP 96KTS 85KTS 70KTS 55KTS
DSHP 96KTS 85KTS 70KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 107.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 105.0W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 102.8W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 125NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 100NM

$$

18z models have "Hurricane Ilena" with 65kt winds.

[bob rulz]

I'd be very surprised if this wasn't a hurricane yet, so I'll believe it.

[bombarderoazul]

5th cane of the season, it could become a major.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 222032
TCDEP5
HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH RECENT MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THAT ILEANA IS FORMING AN EYE...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE NOW UNANIMOUSLY 65 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES.
ACCORDINGLY...ILEANA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE...THE 5TH OF THE
2006 SEASON...WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT. ILEANA IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A VERY WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE
ANTICYCLONE IN THE UPPER LEVELS DEVELOPING OVER THE HURRICANE. TO
FULLY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS ENVIRONMENT...ILEANA NEEDS ONLY TO
CONSOLIDATE ITS INNER CORE...WHICH APPEARS UNDERWAY. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS FAVOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INDICATES ILEANA APPROACHING CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY WITHIN 48
HOURS...CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.
BEYOND 72 HOURS...THINGS GET VERY COMPLICATED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THEREFORE THE UNDERLYING SST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES ILEANA WILL MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS RESULTING IN STEADY WEAKENING.

ILEANA IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH AN ESTIMATED
INITIAL MOTION OF 300/14. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BEING THE DEPTH AND
STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. SINCE THE NOGAPS...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN DO NOT HAVE A REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF THE VORTEX...THOSE
SOLUTIONS ARE DEEMED LESS LIKELY. THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS...
BECAUSE THEY DEPICT A STRONGER AND DEEPER VORTEX...APPEAR TO
PROVIDE BETTER SOLUTIONS DURING THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS UNTIL THE
CYCLONE APPROACHES COOLER WATERS. THEREAFTER...THE UKMET STALLS
THE CYCLONE WHILE THE GFDL TURNS IT NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BE PICKED UP BY THIS TROUGH. INSTEAD...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...ALBEIT
SLOWER...ON DAYS 4 AND 5. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER
THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECASTS AT THESE LONGER RANGES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 15.8N 108.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 16.8N 109.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 18.2N 111.6W 85 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 19.3N 113.6W 95 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 20.3N 115.3W 95 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 21.6N 117.4W 80 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 23.0N 119.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 24.0N 121.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[bob rulz]

Finally!

[benny]

Sure looks like it has major hurricane written all over it... probably in 24 hours or so.. this sucker is up 30 kt since yesterday at this time and there is no good reason for it to stop this intensification rate... barring an eyewall cycle...