Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2
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- beachbum_al
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The TWD's continue to explain the convection...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER
HIGH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W NE ACROSS E CUBA TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN THE W ATLC. THIS IS PROVIDING ENOUGH
DIFFLUENCE OVER W CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N W OF 80W WITH
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 83W-97W.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER
HIGH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W NE ACROSS E CUBA TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN THE W ATLC. THIS IS PROVIDING ENOUGH
DIFFLUENCE OVER W CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N W OF 80W WITH
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 83W-97W.
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Sanibel wrote:There's a mid level swirl south of Cozumel moving into Yucatan. Nothing to shout about.
Think I'll quit this disturbance until it really shows something. Last night's flare was probably shear-induced over warm SST's.
I was just looking at that.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-84&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal
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- Yankeegirl
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Maybe I'm seeing things but it looks like there is a circulation moving off the western end of Cuba into the SE GOM. Could this be what the 1200 NAM is picking up on? Is it mid-level?
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
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That 12z NAM run is odd. It almost looks like a winter storm really strung out as it approaches the LA coast at the end of the run. It shows the windfield (kinda) at 200mb, 300mb, 700mb and at the surface. There are also some height lines associated with the "spin" as it takes it toward the mouth of the Mississippi River. I wouldn't put much stock in it as it almost looks like a wandering cut off low or something.
Steve
Steve
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I know one thing, if anything gets into the eastern Gulf and especially the NE Gulf it will be moving over JET FUEL as far as a TC goes.
This buoy south of Panama City had recent SST's of right at 89 degrees.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039
This buoy south of Panama City had recent SST's of right at 89 degrees.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- tropicsgal05
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- LAwxrgal
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Dean4Storms wrote:I know one thing, if anything gets into the eastern Gulf and especially the NE Gulf it will be moving over JET FUEL as far as a TC goes.
This buoy south of Panama City had recent SST's of right at 89 degrees.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039
Not to mention that loop current in the middle of the Gulf that spawned those two beasties last year....
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Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Wake me up when November ends
- tropicsgal05
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NHC continues to see nothing at this time to cause immediate concern.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-23N
BETWEEN 81W-88W. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRODUCED MOSTLY BY UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IN THE REGION. SHIP AND BUOY OBS IN THE AREA SHOW
ISOLATED WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...THE LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY
WEAKENED WITH A NEW BURST JUST S OF CUBA. THIS AREA OF WEATHER
HAS BEEN MOVING N IN THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
BUT IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZING AND SFC PRESSURES ARE
RISING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-23N
BETWEEN 81W-88W. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRODUCED MOSTLY BY UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IN THE REGION. SHIP AND BUOY OBS IN THE AREA SHOW
ISOLATED WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...THE LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY
WEAKENED WITH A NEW BURST JUST S OF CUBA. THIS AREA OF WEATHER
HAS BEEN MOVING N IN THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
BUT IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZING AND SFC PRESSURES ARE
RISING.
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- cycloneye
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Will this be invest 98L in the comming days?
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