Hurricane Ioke thread

[wxmann_91]

The newest runs of the GFS do bring in the option of another scenario - the trough to the west lingers for some time and Ioke dies. Currently dry air is cutting off the western side, so by 24 hours, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ioke down to a Cat 1. Of course, what happens thereafter is still up for grabs. I may have to take back my previous comment about Ioke not weakening below cane status.

Interesting, the 6Z GFDL strengthens Ioke at the end of the run, which differs from the GFS, which in fact kills it around that time.

Sigh. I wish Ioke would last longer.

[whereverwx]

Yay, we finally have a floater on it...

[wxmann_91]

Yay, we finally have a floater on it...

Just as it's weakening.

Good loop, but why do those L's and ts symbols pop up? Anyway, the outflow is clearly being restricted in the western semicircle due to dry air/shear.

[bob rulz]

It looks like it's trying to wrap that convection back around the center.

[whereverwx]

Good loop, but why do those L's and ts symbols pop up?

No idea. It was on a few of the other floaters, too. It must be a glitch or something on the overlays.

[WindRunner]

Looks like at the end of calamity's loop we might have an eye starting to form once again, though it also kind of looks like a keyhole as well . . .

[LAwxrgal]

Looking at the floater there's a significant northerly component to its motion...was this forecast and is there a trough or anything influencing this?

It also looks as though it's kind of running into a wall to its northwest.

[wxmann_91]

It also looks as though it's kind of running into a wall to its northwest.

Exactly. Thus the weakening. The trough had better move out soon.

[hurricanefloyd5]

hurricane warnings issued for JOHNTSON ISLAND!!!!!!!!!!!

[JonathanBelles]

what are the chances of cat 5 status?

[Derek Ortt]

zero

its now a cat 2 hurricane

WTPA32 PHFO 221856
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IOKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
800 AM HST TUE AUG 22 2006

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM HST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 169.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE
IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB.

REPEATING THE 800 AM HST POSITION...15.9 N...169.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CRAIG/BROWNING

[bob rulz]

zero

What if goes into the WPAC?

I wouldn't say zero, just highly unlikely.

its now a cat 2 hurricane

Wow...weakening just as fast as it strengthened. Goodbye Ioke! (for now, at least).

[wxmann_91]

BTW, if the shear vector from the trough could be alined more N-S rather than E-W, the outflow could be enhanced by it which could allow slight reintensification in day 3-4.

[chadtm80]

Hurricane Ioke?? Geesh.. I thought Derek was starting a hurricane "Joke" thread and mis spelled it.. lol

[Cyclenall]

zero

its now a cat 2 hurricane

So your saying when Ioke weakens to a CAT2 it's automatically 0% that some time in the future it will become a CAT5? No, it's not at 0% at all since if this goes into the Wpac, the chances are there for re-strengthening.

[Derek Ortt]

it has to encounter very strong shear before its gets there. Could be down to a TD by then

This will not become a cat 5, sorry

[Cyclenall]

it has to encounter very strong shear before its gets there. Could be down to a TD by then

This will not become a cat 5, sorry

Did I ever say this was going to become a category 5? My main point here was not to say it has a 0% chance at becoming a CAT5 since anything can happen within logic. It would be more like 0.5% or lower for example.

[bob rulz]

it has to encounter very strong shear before its gets there. Could be down to a TD by then

This will not become a cat 5, sorry

Every storm starts out as a tropical depression...and if it makes it into the West Pacific it would have plenty of time to re-intesify.

[wxmann_91]

FWIW, GFDL still intensifies this to a Cat 4 after the trough interaction.

Also, anybody got the SHIPS intensity forecast? Drastically different shear values than previous runs.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 90 82 76 73 71 71 70 69 67 64 59 56 57
V (KT) LAND 90 82 76 73 71 71 70 69 67 64 59 56 47
V (KT) LGE mod 90 82 77 73 71 70 70 71 72 72 70 67 53

SHEAR (KTS) 13 8 11 10 8 9 8 5 13 18 23 26 19
SHEAR DIR 248 288 304 320 334 315 341 320 315 319 336 333 232
SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 24.9
POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 140 140 139 140 140 141 141 140 151 121
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -53.4 -53.5 -51.4
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 5
500-300 MB RH 43 40 34 30 29 29 29 31 39 40 46 43 41
850 MB VORT -3 -10 -12 -15 -18 -27 -24 -34 -26 -50 -30 -30 51
200 MB DIV 11 18 7 -5 5 10 -31 -33 -31 3 -51 -11 10
LAND (KM) 1215 1232 1255 1278 1305 1379 1458 1557 1674 1770 1847 1947 -999
LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.8 19.6 20.2 20.6 21.1 21.6 21.9 22.0
LONG(DEG W) 169.4 170.0 170.6 171.1 171.6 172.6 173.6 174.7 175.9 176.9 177.7 178.7 .1
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 412 828
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI

[temujin]

I'm pretty sure that Johnston Island is uninhabited now.