TD #4 East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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cycloneye
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#361 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:07 pm

Image
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Derek Ortt

#362 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:08 pm

will,

go through 2 hurricanes in 60 days as I did last year, and trust me when I tell you this, you'll never want to experience another, especially when you ride them out in a causeway as I did (and throw in a sideswipe from a 3rd in between just for good measure)
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willjnewton

#363 Postby willjnewton » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:11 pm

oh darn looks like the global forecast models update takes it fishing, DAGBLASTED :x :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops:
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#364 Postby Trugunzn » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:13 pm

but they ae trnding a little more and more west thouh. Dont expect huge flips
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#365 Postby Windtalker1 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:13 pm

willjnewton wrote:oh darn looks like the global forecast models update takes it fishing, DAGBLASTED :x :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops:
models will change alot in the next few days...trust me.....not FISH yet......a chance it could be FISH...but not FISH yet.
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willjnewton

#366 Postby willjnewton » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:15 pm

oh Never mind the Lbar seems a more westward track, thankgod finally :lol: :lol:
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#367 Postby Trugunzn » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:15 pm

convection really firing up around center
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#368 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:16 pm

bob rulz wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



This is my first Forecast for this system thus far. I will do a more in depth explanation as to why I feel the way I do when I get home from work.

http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/7600/basinxo0.gif*


I don't like the looks of that southern track...it could pull an Andrew out there.


No hyping or eluding to past storms please....do not want to taunt mother nature this hurricane season or any for that matter :D

* edited to help bandwidth
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#369 Postby clfenwi » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:18 pm

Regarding the questions about the direction in which the storm is currently moving... the models were initalized with a current direction of 300° and a 12 hour average of 297° , which is west-northwest (305° could be considered northwest).
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#370 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:19 pm

willjnewton wrote:oh Never mind the Lbar seems a more westward track, thankgod finally :lol: :lol:



Will Please don't stress yourself over a typical Fish storm...Your gonna kill yourself man...
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#371 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:19 pm

Windtalker1 wrote:
willjnewton wrote:oh darn looks like the global forecast models update takes it fishing, DAGBLASTED :x :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops:
models will change alot in the next few days...trust me.....not FISH yet......a chance it could be FISH...but not FISH yet.

Window Wiper Blades Effect anyone?
Last edited by jaxfladude on Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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bob rulz
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#372 Postby bob rulz » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:20 pm

jaxfladude wrote:
bob rulz wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



This is my first Forecast for this system thus far. I will do a more in depth explanation as to why I feel the way I do when I get home from work.

http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/7600/basinxo0.gif*


I don't like the looks of that southern track...it could pull an Andrew out there.


No hyping or eluding to past storms please....do not want to taunt mother nature this hurricane season or any for that matter :D

* edited to help bandwidth


I'm sure she can't hear me. :wink: And by pulling an Andrew I didn't necessarily mean "cat 5 near Miami" I just meant weakening over the ocean, holding on for a long time, and then strehgthening as it approaches the coast.
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#373 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:23 pm

jaxfladude wrote:
Windtalker1 wrote:
willjnewton wrote:oh darn looks like the global forecast models update takes it fishing, DAGBLASTED :x :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops:
models will change alot in the next few days...trust me.....not FISH yet......a chance it could be FISH...but not FISH yet.

Window Wiper Blades Effect anyone?


yeah, no kidding. don't the forum rules call for quality over quantity?
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willjnewton

#374 Postby willjnewton » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:24 pm

it seems like that the Lbar forecast model with the latest update takes this system or storm more westnorthwestward over the Course of time??is that true?please explain okay, thankyou
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#375 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:24 pm

may not be a she....97L may get the name debby...who knows
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#376 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:33 pm

willjnewton wrote:it seems like that the Lbar forecast model with the latest update takes this system or storm more westnorthwestward over the Course of time??is that true?please explain okay, thankyou

Thw LBAR is worthless. I know, it's weird but true.
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willjnewton

#377 Postby willjnewton » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:37 pm

even though the Lbar forecast model is worthless, weird but true, Does this storm still has a chance of NOT being Fish, like can that pottienttially change??
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willjnewton

#378 Postby willjnewton » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:38 pm

And is this tropical system becoming better organized by the minute??
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Derek Ortt

#379 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:39 pm

TAFB is still at 2.0/2.0 and SSD's data T number decreased to 2.0, yielding a a 2.0/2.5 classification

this is why the TD has probably not been upgraded
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#380 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:39 pm

I'd say right now 80% of being a fish, 20% of not being a fish.
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