MORE Strong Storms For SE TX / SW LA possible

[KatDaddy]

Flood Statement
FLOOD STATEMENT
TXC039-167-201-191730-

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1050 AM CDT SAT AUG 19 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR GALVESTON...NORTHERN BRAZORIA AND
SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AT 1045 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM
LA MARQUE TO FRIENDSWOOD TO PEARLAND TO HOBBY AIRPORT. HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS. BECAUSE OF HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY SEE 3 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 4 INCHES.
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME STREET FLOODING.

FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR...
LA MARQUE...BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...FRIENDSWOOD...LEAGUE CITY...
PEARLAND...SOUTH HOUSTON...WEBSTER...AND HOBBY AIRPORT.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LAND
ADJACENT TO CREEKS AND BAYOUS...DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
ADDITIONALLY...FLOODING MAY OCCUR ON...STREETS...FRONTAGE ROADS...AND
HIGHWAY UNDERPASSES. AVOID LOCATIONS WHERE WATER COVERS THE GROUND!

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...OR
DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[Johnny]

Souterngale, I live in central Montgomery County and yes, we need the rain. If I stopped watering, my grass would die off. You've definately gotten ALOT more rain than me. So with your magic wand, cast some up my way will ya?

[southerngale]

Souterngale, I live in central Montgomery County and yes, we need the rain. If I stopped watering, my grass would die off. You've definately gotten ALOT more rain than me. So with your magic wand, cast some up my way will ya?

I'll do my best...

[Yankeegirl]

It thundered here all morning... very nice to sleep to!! I think we got a pretty good amout of rain... my rain gauge...my birdbath... is full...

[Extremeweatherguy]

It's raining right now!

[Yankeegirl]

No rain here.... yet???

[Yankeegirl]

I can see the nice pretty black clouds just to my north... Looks like a am just a tad bit too south... I can hear the thunder though... I guess its a tease storm....

[Extremeweatherguy]

These storms are really blowing up over north Houston!

[Yankeegirl]

loos like the ones on the east side, if they stay, might hit me later... I am about 7 miles north of i 10... very good thunder with the ones to the north of me though!! someone is getting it good!!!

[Ptarmigan]

I heard a lot of thunder this morning. It was distant though. Never heard so much thunder in my life.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest Houston AFD looks promising for rain:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
302 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ONLY INDICATING SOME VERY SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT REMAIN QUITE RESOLUTE WITH
THE INCLUSION OF HIGHISH POPS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SEEMINGLY
SEMI-PERMANENT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS LOOKS TO SHIFT A
TOUCH WEST BY THE WEEKS END...AND TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THIS...PROGS
INCREASE PWS OVER THE REGION (AOA 2.1-2.5") AS THE GULF OPENS SOME
BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH BY WAY OF LIFT. AFTN HEATING/
SEABREEZE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY PLAYERS FOR SCTD PCPN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A TROPICAL WAVE (OR TWO) BY THE WEEK
END. 41

[Yankeegirl]

I knew it!! My left leg is killing me, and it started hurting around 830 tonight!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
839 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FIRING OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. GFS BRINGS
THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. 00Z
850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST MOISTURE OVER LOUISIANA WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER. AT 500 MB...THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE HAS MOVED FROM NEAR FTW TO NEAR SAN ANGELO. 250 MB
STREAMLINES INDICATE A CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW. THINK RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE AROUND SUNRISE AS MUCH
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LOUISIANA INCHES WEST. PW`S AT LCH HAVE
INCREASED TODAY FROM 1.92 TO 2.08 INCHES. THINK RAIN CHANCES MIGHT
BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY DUE TO THE HIGH PW AIR IN
PLACE. PREFER TO WAIT FOR LATEST MODEL DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO TUESDAYS FORECAST. THINK POP FCST FOR TONIGHT IS ON
TARGET. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...BUT THINK
PARTLY CLOUDY WILL SUFFICE AS THE CLOUD CANOPY GRADUALLY ERODES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 77 AND 80 THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AND
SEE NO REASON TO BUCK THE TREND. WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES
IN THE GRIDS...BUT THIS DOES NOT WARRANT A ZONE UPDATE. 43

[Yankeegirl]

Rain would be nice... my leg is sore....

[jasons2k]

I hope we get some today/tomorrow. I haven't had time to water any of my potted plants in the back and they are all wilting. My lawn would be dead if I didn't have a sprinkler system. I've had a lot less rain at the house than the readings at the airports.

[Yankeegirl]

My leg is still hurting... I think we are goin to get a pretty good amont of rain later on today...

[Extremeweatherguy]

40% rain chance now! Looks like some of the storms could be strong too as they head in from LA. Here is the latest radar:

NE Houston radar (to watch the storms move in from LA/east TX):



Central Houston radar:

[Yankeegirl]

I just saw that too... I wonder if they will make it all the way to houston???

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just saw that too... I wonder if they will make it all the way to houston???

I hope so!

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...
PCPN STARTING TO FILL IN FROM THE NE AND AT COAST THIS AFTN...AND
WITH IT A CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAINLY IN THE
NRN ZONES THIS EVENING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HELPING THE AIRMASS CAP-
ITALIZE ON THE HIGH CAPES AS THE S/WV FINALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ADD TO THE VERBAGE AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND SEVERE WX WILL BOTH BE MENTIONED FOR THE EVENING HRS. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ANOTHER ROUND
ON TAP TOMORROW AS ANOTHER S/WV LOOKS TO BE MOVING WSW DOWN ALONG
THE SAME PATH AS TODAY`S (CURRENTLY AOA THE LA/AR BORDER). HI PWS
REMAINING AROUND THE 2.1-2.5" RANGE TO HELP FUEL THIS INCREASE IN
PCPN THIS WEEK AS THE SEABREEZE...HEATING AND THE OCCASIONAL S/WV
(TRAVERSING UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE) AID DEVELOPMENT. THE OVER-
ALL PATTERN DOESN`T SEEM TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE WEEKEND (SAVE FOR
A LESSENING CONFIDENCE WITH PROGS IN TERMS OF TIMING OF/EXISTENCE
OF THE S/WVS). RIDGE TO "RE-FORM"/RE-SETTLE OVER THE ERN SEABOARD
THIS WEEKEND/EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP SE TX
AND UPPER TX COAST OPEN TO INFLUENCES FROM THE GULF. 41

That last sentence is both good and bad. It means that we should see a nice steady 30-50% chance of rain each day, but it also means any tropical activity that forms in the Gulf next week will head our way.