TD #4 East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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DROliver

#441 Postby DROliver » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:57 pm

A right shift is great news! It wont get past 55w (well at least we can hope) :D :D

Remember tonight's show on IPR with Bryan Norcross!

http://ipr365.com
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#442 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:58 pm

storms in NC wrote:Seen that. Not understanding it But you have go by what they say. I guess not all ways true about a weakness of a storm going more to the west.


When the low level ridge is located so far to the north, as it is now, there is nothing to keep it pushed westward. Normally it is true...but that is with the ridge axis located a little further south. The current high is going to stay put and is located near the Azores and will allow the system to rotate around the western edge.
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#443 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:58 pm

And next, the models will all shift back to the left and everybody will be debating where she will make landfall. :wink:
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#444 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:01 pm

AnnularCane wrote:And next, the models will all shift back to the left and everybody will be debating where she will make landfall. :wink:


At 14.5N 27.5W? That would be a very rare scenario. A model flip won't pull me into that debate.
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#445 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:02 pm

And how do we know that 6 days out the ridge wont bulid back? I dont trust anything more than 3-4 days out...at this time i dont buy anything...jus need to watch and wait
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#446 Postby benny » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:14 pm

this should be a fun nite.. stewart after franklin.. just like last nite.. i wonder if it will be repeat... stronger and more west in the forecast???
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#447 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:16 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:And how do we know that 6 days out the ridge wont bulid back? I dont trust anything more than 3-4 days out...at this time i dont buy anything...jus need to watch and wait


We don't...but in 4 days its at 27N...49W...and that is really far north already and any weakness in the ridge if it were to build back, would be exploited by the system.

Looking at climo...a system moving at 300 at this latitude already...and looking at TS...none make it across that I can see. To make it across you have to moving pretty much due west.

Assuming it makes it to 27/49 and the ridge builds back in...a couple make it to the states...like Ginger and Kyle (2002).

Lord...please no more Kyles.
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#448 Postby storms in NC » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:20 pm

I myself have always done rule of thumb. If it gets to 25N before the 50W always out to sea.
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#449 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:27 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:And how do we know that 6 days out the ridge wont bulid back? I dont trust anything more than 3-4 days out...at this time i dont buy anything...jus need to watch and wait


We don't...but in 4 days its at 27N...49W...and that is really far north already and any weakness in the ridge if it were to build back, would be exploited by the system.

Looking at climo...a system moving at 300 at this latitude already...and looking at TS...none make it across that I can see. To make it across you have to moving pretty much due west.

Assuming it makes it to 27/49 and the ridge builds back in...a couple make it to the states...like Ginger and Kyle (2002).

Lord...please no more Kyles.


I agree this is very likely to recurve into the North-Central Atlantic by just given the position it's at now.
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#450 Postby whereverwx » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:37 pm

Looking good--kind of.

Image
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#451 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:39 pm

calamity wrote:Looking good--kind of.

Image


If that convection persists it will be Debby later tonight.
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#452 Postby whereverwx » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:
calamity wrote:Looking good--kind of.

Image


If that convection persists it will be Debby later tonight.

Yeah, it will be interesting to see what happens. Here's the latest frame:

Image
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Scorpion

#453 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:56 pm

Convection continues to consolidate. If it continues, I think it will be 40 kts at 11.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#454 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:59 pm

Should be right now...Take a look at this.

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2006 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 14:32:03 N Lon : 27:33:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.7 3.2 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -63.0C Cloud Region Temp : -41.7C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.75 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


Also the center is right under the center of the convection. This is could be 40 or so knots.
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#455 Postby benny » Tue Aug 22, 2006 5:08 pm

looks like a storm on IR...... hmmm
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#456 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 22, 2006 5:09 pm

Dry upper half.
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MiamiensisWx

#457 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Aug 22, 2006 5:12 pm

Based on the current convective pattern, system structure, and moderate anticyclonic flow that may favor maintaining the current general organization and consolidation, I think we may see Debby by the 11PM EST advisory or 5AM EST advisory at the latest. As the depression moves off to the west-northwest, outflow may be slightly enhanced by the developing slight weakness in the mid-level ridging to the northwest. That, along with the other synoptic factors mentioned that favor maintenance of the depression's structure and gradual convective consolidation, leans to supporting that we may see Debby rather soon.
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#458 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 22, 2006 5:24 pm

TD4 could be the SAL "scrubber" that preps the CV track for systems to follow.

The next wave over Africa appears to have spin already.
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#459 Postby storms in NC » Tue Aug 22, 2006 5:45 pm

LOLOLOLOL got home to 356 replies from storm 2 k little behind I think :lol: :eek:
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#460 Postby miamicanes177 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 5:50 pm

6hr Avg T2.9 ...Raw T4.0
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