Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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#181 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:47 pm

I see that SouthFloridawx has posted an image of the model
plots...what is the link to that site with the model plots just so
I know where it is for future reference?
And thanks SouthFloridawx for posting that image.
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#182 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:48 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:We can see the broad low here but, it is not closed off on the western side.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

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looks like this could be caribbean and then GOM bound.
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#183 Postby Roxy » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:19 pm

Ok, so this one is the disturbance we were watching in the other thread but it's now invest 97?

SO CONFUSED?!
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#184 Postby skysummit » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:20 pm

Roxy wrote:Ok, so this one is the disturbance we were watching in the other thread but it's now invest 97?

SO CONFUSED?!


This used to be the "Central Atlantic Wave". The other two are the Western Carribean Disturbance and of course TD #4.
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#185 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:21 pm

Roxy wrote:Ok, so this one is the disturbance we were watching in the other thread but it's now invest 97?

SO CONFUSED?!


Two totally different disturbances Roxy...

This is just outside of the Caribbean in the Atlantic. Still a day of so before entering.
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#186 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:21 pm

Roxy wrote:Ok, so this one is the disturbance we were watching in the other thread but it's now invest 97?

SO CONFUSED?!




Ok Roxy, heres the scoop......this thread is for an Invest in the Central ALT...Formerly known as Central ALT wave thread...the disturbance near the Yuc is talked about in the Carib thread. Hope this helps....
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#187 Postby Roxy » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:21 pm

Oh, ok.....I guess I get it now. Thanks Skysummit, and Rock and Stratosphere.

Who would have thought that with not much out there there'd be so much to keep track of I'd get confused.

Huh? :lol:
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#188 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:24 pm

Roxy wrote:Oh, ok.....I guess I get it now. Thanks Skysummit, and Rock and Stratosphere.

Who would have thought that with not much out there there'd be so much to keep track of I'd get confused.

Huh? :lol:


Same here...;)

I was over at the western Caribbean disturbance thread talking about this one...
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#189 Postby bvigal » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:36 pm

That's why I wish they'd publish the wave numbers. I know they number them, I've seen them referred to in hurricane writeups. It would just make it easier to keep track. :lol:
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#190 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:52 pm

bvigal wrote:That's why I wish they'd publish the wave numbers. I know they number them, I've seen them referred to in hurricane writeups. It would just make it easier to keep track. :lol:


I know that my fellow mod,senorpepr knows about that so he for sure will help you on that question.
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#191 Postby caribepr » Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:55 pm

bvigal wrote:That's why I wish they'd publish the wave numbers. I know they number them, I've seen them referred to in hurricane writeups. It would just make it easier to keep track. :lol:


Aw, I don't believe for a second you don't know which wave YOU (and a few more of us) are keeping a bleary eye on. numbered or not :)
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#192 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:11 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 222106
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 210 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF IMPROVING ORGANIZATION...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#193 Postby bvigal » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:13 pm

caribepr wrote:
bvigal wrote:That's why I wish they'd publish the wave numbers. I know they number them, I've seen them referred to in hurricane writeups. It would just make it easier to keep track. :lol:


Aw, I don't believe for a second you don't know which wave YOU (and a few more of us) are keeping a bleary eye on. numbered or not :)

:hehe: OK, MJ you got me there!

Well Stewart says still organizing, and must admit sat has looked that way since about 2-3. This looks like a low rider, though.
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#194 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:14 pm

wouldn't be surprised if this became TD #5 by the weekend. Beyond that point it will likely work it's way through the Caribbean and be somewhere near the Yucatan channel at this point next week. However, I am not overly concerned about this one just yet.
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#195 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:15 pm

bvigal wrote:
caribepr wrote:
bvigal wrote:That's why I wish they'd publish the wave numbers. I know they number them, I've seen them referred to in hurricane writeups. It would just make it easier to keep track. :lol:


Aw, I don't believe for a second you don't know which wave YOU (and a few more of us) are keeping a bleary eye on. numbered or not :)

:hehe: OK, MJ you got me there!

Well Stewart says still organizing, and must admit sat has looked that way since about 2-3. This looks like a low rider, though.


yep, gulf of mexico more than likely. Of course the storm will start to be pulled north(like they almost always are, once it enters the Carib sea....I agree with the models on the northwest turn. THIS will be our next player.
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#196 Postby caribepr » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:18 pm

Low rider sounds good to me (for us)! But...as good old Mr. Frost said...miles to go before I sleep....
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#197 Postby senorpepr » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:20 pm

bvigal wrote:That's why I wish they'd publish the wave numbers. I know they number them, I've seen them referred to in hurricane writeups. It would just make it easier to keep track. :lol:


I'm not exactly sure why they don't.
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#198 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:29 pm

senorpepr wrote:
bvigal wrote:That's why I wish they'd publish the wave numbers. I know they number them, I've seen them referred to in hurricane writeups. It would just make it easier to keep track. :lol:


I'm not exactly sure why they don't.


We began numbering the waves (and other disturbances) last year. Finished the season with 66. Very high development ratio in 2005. So far in 2006, we're at #36 with the wave that became TD 4. More waves but a much lower development ratio. Typically, about 10-15% develop, so 4 of 36 is about right.
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#199 Postby StormWarning1 » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:29 pm

Their is to much shear in the central and eastern carribean, I don't remember a late august with 40 knot shear in the carribean. Maybe this will become something in the east pacific.
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#200 Postby jasons2k » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:38 pm

I'm am concerned IF this one does develop about the timing of it. Of course next week is still a LONG ways off, but I'm concerned the ridge that's been over TX/LA for so long will be replaced by a weakness next week and allow this one to slip towards the NW Gulf. For now wait n' see, but I haven't been this interested/concerned with a system since old 98L.
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