Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[MortisFL]

wouldn't be surprised if this became TD #5 by the weekend. Beyond that point it will likely work it's way through the Caribbean and be somewhere near the Yucatan channel at this point next week. However, I am not overly concerned about this one just yet.

Does every post you do have to mention a probability of your location?

[sfwx]

AFD Melbourne, Fl 2:50 p.m.

I assume this is the same invest?


SUN-TUE...RATHER DEEP ELY FLOW INDICATED EARLY IN WEEK WITH
MARGINALLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FAVORING AT LEAST A LOW END SCT COVRG
OF DIURNAL PRECIP. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR COAST WL BE EARLY MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING INLAND DURING AFTERNOON. LATEST GFS RUN
IS FAVORING FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF DISTURBANCE WHICH IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR 10N 47W WITH MOVEMENT INTO CARIB SOUTH OF CUBA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

[cajungal]

wouldn't be surprised if this became TD #5 by the weekend. Beyond that point it will likely work it's way through the Caribbean and be somewhere near the Yucatan channel at this point next week. However, I am not overly concerned about this one just yet.

Does every post you do have to mention a probability of your location?

He did not mention that this disturbance was going to Texas at all. He is just pointing out the facts on where it is going. And he is saying he is not overly concerned with this one because it just an invest. A depression has not even formed and it is not written in stone that this will become a depression. But, it does seem Gulf bound regardless.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wouldn't be surprised if this became TD #5 by the weekend. Beyond that point it will likely work it's way through the Caribbean and be somewhere near the Yucatan channel at this point next week. However, I am not overly concerned about this one just yet.

Does every post you do have to mention a probability of your location?

I never even mentioned Texas in this whole discussion. I am confused at why you would think I thought this was coming here? With that being said, I don't think it is impossible that it could down the road, but as I said before...I am not overly concerned at this time.

[dwg71]

wouldn't be surprised if this became TD #5 by the weekend. Beyond that point it will likely work it's way through the Caribbean and be somewhere near the Yucatan channel at this point next week. However, I am not overly concerned about this one just yet.

Does every post you do have to mention a probability of your location?

I never even mentioned Texas in this whole discussion. I am confused at why you would think I thought this was coming here? With that being said, I don't think it is impossible that it could down the road, but as I said before...I am not overly concerned at this time.

Not to flame EWG, but all of your posts lean toward the possibility of it coming to the upper texas coast. I don't think its on purpose, it just comes across like that.

[Normandy]

^No I just think peopl enjoy accusing people of -removed-..

[Extremeweatherguy]

wouldn't be surprised if this became TD #5 by the weekend. Beyond that point it will likely work it's way through the Caribbean and be somewhere near the Yucatan channel at this point next week. However, I am not overly concerned about this one just yet.

Does every post you do have to mention a probability of your location?

I never even mentioned Texas in this whole discussion. I am confused at why you would think I thought this was coming here? With that being said, I don't think it is impossible that it could down the road, but as I said before...I am not overly concerned at this time.

Not to flame EWG, but all of your posts lean toward the possibility of it coming to the upper texas coast. I don't think its on purpose, it just comes across like that.

All of my posts say this is coming to TX? That is impossible considering I have only posted in this thread 4 times total (inluding this post), and in none of those posts did I say this was going to TX. In fact, I have not said 97L was going to Texas ANYWHERE on this board.

[tropicsgal05]

These storms are unpredictable , i learned that lesson with Hurricane Opal and Katrina. That is if this invest turns into a tropical system. One thing about the GOM is that once a storm gets in there it has to go somewhere.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks cycloneye blows the horn!!,cut this now and let's talk about 97L please.

[Fego]

I was expecting a floater for the Invest 97.

[tropicsPR]

Is there a link that shows the speed of the "shear" in the eastern Caribbean?

[Stratosphere747]

Is there a link that shows the speed of the "shear" in the eastern Caribbean?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[tropicsPR]

Is there a link that shows the speed of the "shear" in the eastern Caribbean?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Thank You Very Much, Stratosphere747

[rainstorm]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.gif

i feel development is rather unlikely. if you examine this sat pic, there is a string of ulls north of the caribbean that are sinking south. i think shear will dramatically increase in the coming days

[skysummit]

Rainstorm...where are those ULLs you're talking about? I only see two that may have a little to do with 97. One should drop across Cuba and move on out by the time 97 gets in that vicinity and another is in the Atlantic and it doesn't look to be dropping very fast.

[Normandy]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.gif

i feel development is rather unlikely. if you examine this sat pic, there is a string of ulls north of the caribbean that are sinking south. i think shear will dramatically increase in the coming days

I, like Skysummit, have no clue what you are talking about

[rainstorm]

just watch and see. i expect quite a bit of shear. did you see the water vapor lyons showed? maybe 97L will develop in the west carib, if anything is left of it

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.gif
i feel development is rather unlikely. if you examine this sat pic, there is a string of ulls north of the caribbean that are sinking south. i think shear will dramatically increase in the coming days

I, like Skysummit, have no clue what you are talking about

The GFS has done well with Upper Level Lows from what I have seen in the past couple of months.

Looking at the Water Vapor loop I see what rainstorm is talking about however GFS is not forecasting this feature to move any farther south than Western Cuba then lift out into the GOM and move northward after that.

So I might have to tend to agree that Upper Level winds may become more unfavorable in the Caribbean for Cyclone formation in the 3-5 days from now. However the Evolution of this current upper level pattern is important to watch.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
Shows the Northern and Northwestern portions of the Caribbean to have windshear and it is likely caused by the ULL.

[jasons2k]

^^ I meant ditto for Skysummit & Normandy's posts.

Also, EWG, hope I don't get your juices flowing too much , but I think there may some reason for concern with this IF it does develop. The death ridge we've had for the last few weeks is expected to migrate over to the East, which may leave a channel for anything that moves into the GOM to head towards TX. FWIW I'm watching this wave more closely than than the last several that went poof.

[perk]

Rainstorm i'm in skysummit and normandy's camp in having no clue of what you're seeing.