12z WRF/ETA develops a Low in Eastern Gulf.

#1 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:01 pm

Not seen anyone mentioning this so thought I'd post it.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etauspcp.html

#2 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:21 pm

NAM places a 1008mb low there by the 25th!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml

And down to 1004mb by the 26th......

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

#3 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:23 pm

If this were to verify, what would be the source of this low in the Gulf? Is it the mess in the Caribbean?

#4 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:25 pm

Would have to be, maybe enhanced by the ULL now south of the Panhandle moving westward. There is alot of convection headed northward now in the SE Gulf north of Cuba.

#5 Postby **btangy** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:27 pm

I've noticed the NAM/WRF is really aggressive in spinning up tropical cyclones perhaps due to its convective parameterization/higher resolution. In its short history, it has a very high false alarm rate.

#6 Postby **Frank P** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:28 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Would have to be, maybe enhanced by the ULL now south of the Panhandle moving westward. There is alot of convection headed northward now in the SE Gulf north of Cuba.

you can see a little piece of energy from the extreme southeastern GOM heading in that direction... still have the ULL along the northern GOM firing off some pretty good afternoon thunderboomers along the MS coast... nice IR loop link

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... &type=mbir

chrisnnavarre · #7 Postby **chrisnnavarre** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:31 pm

It would have to be that area. Maybe this should be moved over to the Western Carribean thread. Something must be going to jump out of the box in the eastern gulf tonight or tomorrow. I have been monitoring pressures and although normal right now they have been steady falling for the past six hours at the Keys and Fort Myers...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html

Acral · #8 Postby **Acral** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:31 pm

It's that swirly thing they are seeing near Mobile/Pensacola. Too far out right now (i.e. nothing to watch) but last year and other years they sure can blow up like that right in our faces.

Past history is why I personally won't discount this thing.

Though I really wish those swirly pictures and the potential storms would go play in the middle of the Atlantic.

caneman · #9 Postby **caneman** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:40 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:NAM places a 1008mb low there by the 25th!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml

And down to 1004mb by the 26th......

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

that wouldn't be cool if it verified.

#10 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:43 pm

Birmingham NWS longe range discussion this afternoon.......

AS FAR AS TROPICAL WEATHER IS CONCERNED THE DGEX IS STILL AN
OUTLIER. BOTH THE GFS AND DGEX HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BUT THE
DGEX IS THE ONLY MODEL TO DEVELOP IT. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
TROPICAL FEATURE STARTS OUT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON
SATURDAY /THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAS AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ AND
MOVES IT NORTH TO THE LA/MS BOOT AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT THEN
BRINGS THE SYSTEM NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN MS/WESTERN AL LINE
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY
MEANDERS AROUND CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. THE DGEX STILL HAS NO
SUPPORT FROM OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS SO WILL DISREGARD. STILL AM A
BIT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS OF A TROPICAL FEATURE...THE
GOOD NEWS IS THERE IS NO RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON PLACEMENT.

80

#11 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:48 pm

btangy wrote:I've noticed the NAM/WRF is really aggressive in spinning up tropical cyclones perhaps due to its convective parameterization/higher resolution. In its short history, it has a very high false alarm rate.

btangy, I agree and it's been doing this all season with the new resolution. It'll be interesting to see how it behaves with formed systems. I didn't pay much attention to it with the A-C storms though.

Acral · #12 Postby **Acral** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:48 pm

Go go BHM.. I like their outlook, hehe.. but I think conditions will be ripe for a "spinner", but hopefully no more than a T.S.

ronjon · #13 Postby **ronjon** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:50 pm

Here's the full 84 hr animated loop of the 18Z NAM. Pretty scary scenario for west coast FL residents. Maximum tropical cyclone potential over the loop current & NE GOM. Wouldn't take much to get going in 88 deg water.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

x-y-no · #14 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:55 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:If this were to verify, what would be the source of this low in the Gulf? Is it the mess in the Caribbean?

Looks like it's an upper-level low which works its way down in place.

caneman · #15 Postby **caneman** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 5:05 pm

ronjon wrote:Here's the full 84 hr animated loop of the 18Z NAM. Pretty scary scenario for west coast FL residents. Maximum tropical cyclone potential over the loop current & NE GOM. Wouldn't take much to get going in 88 deg water.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

My goodness. I just saw right offshore here Pinellas County max winds could support up to 165 mph. Not that it would but just the fact that right offshore here it could support that. :eek:

Scorpion · #16 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 5:15 pm

caneman wrote:
ronjon wrote:Here's the full 84 hr animated loop of the 18Z NAM. Pretty scary scenario for west coast FL residents. Maximum tropical cyclone potential over the loop current & NE GOM. Wouldn't take much to get going in 88 deg water.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

My goodness. I just saw right offshore here Pinellas County max winds could support up to 165 mph. Not that it would but just the fact that right offshore here it could support that.

More like 165+ kts.

caneman · #17 Postby **caneman** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 5:25 pm

Scorpion wrote:
caneman wrote:
ronjon wrote:Here's the full 84 hr animated loop of the 18Z NAM. Pretty scary scenario for west coast FL residents. Maximum tropical cyclone potential over the loop current & NE GOM. Wouldn't take much to get going in 88 deg water.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

My goodness. I just saw right offshore here Pinellas County max winds could support up to 165 mph. Not that it would but just the fact that right offshore here it could support that.

More like 165+ kts.

Ok. I really didn't need you to make things worse. :wink:

Hope they stay away from this stretch of water.

Extremeweatherguy · #18 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 5:31 pm

seems like whatever it is, it is moving toward N.O.

duris · #19 Postby **duris** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 5:44 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:seems like whatever it is, it is moving toward N.O.

No it's not. I have no scientific basis for that just figure if I say it enough times, it's true.

#20 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 5:45 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:seems like whatever it is, it is moving toward N.O.

What's moving toward N.O.? I don't see anything like that looking at the NAM.

12z WRF/ETA develops a Low in Eastern Gulf.

12z WRF/ETA develops a Low in Eastern Gulf.

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