Hurricane Ileana in EPAC Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its going through a IRC right now...Outflow big time out of all quads.

[WmE]

Yeah, I agree. It's deepening rapidly.

[Epsilon_Fan]

Hello eye!

[Scorpion]

Wow that is definitely some rapid deepening. I expect a Cat 4.

[Cyclenall]

That's Ioke with a new eye coming out. Wrong thread.

[Scorpion]

That's Ioke with a new eye coming out. Wrong thread.

Ooh..hmm. Still expect a strong cane here.

[whereverwx]

This is Ileana:

[cycloneye]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The red ring is starting to form around the eye...With perfect outflow at all quads. I say 75 knots now.

Now 75 knots
6 80 knots
12 90 knots
24 105 knots
36 115 knots
48 105 knots
60 85 knots
72 70 knots
96 55 knots
120 45 knots at 26/120

You see that area of darker sea colar between Baja in 120 west. If it moves up that at 15 to 20 mph. In this becomes a cat3 or 4...If I was in califorina I would watch this closely.


Thinking about it for a second. I exited my forecasted winds for a second.

[Thunder44]

Looks like a strong Cat 2 or borderline Cat 3.

[tropicsPR]

When we will see an Ileana-like hurricane in the Atlantic this season?
Any hope?

[Cyclenall]

Looks like a strong Cat 2 or borderline Cat 3.

It looks like that but we need a clear eye that is almost perfect. Once that happens, major hurricane Ileana.

It's a large hurricane. Keep up the RI!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maybe in about two weeks. Also its going through a IRC reds wraping all the way arond.

[LAwxrgal]

Looks like Ileana has just about perfect conditions to do what she continues to do, and that is intensify at a fairly quick pace. I hesitate to call it "rapid intensification" but she's getting her act together in a hurry. Hope she's not threatening any land masses.

[CrazyC83]

I'd estimate Ileana to be 85-90 mph right now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2006 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 16:24:40 N Lon : 169:54:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 966.4mb/ 97.2kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.4mb

Center Temp : -72.6C Cloud Region Temp : -67.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

[WmE]

Well, 97 knots? That'd be a major hurricane!

[Cyclenall]

Well, at 97 knots that's almost a major. It must be how well organized it is with the size and eye forming.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok I'm lossing it that was for LOKE. This has a 74 knots...I believe its up to around 80 knots now. In this should be a major in 24 hours.

[WmE]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2006 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 16:07:24 N Lon : 108:29:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 983.1mb/ 74.6kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 4.8 6.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : -21.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF