TD Debby E Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #D

[cycloneye]

Continue the discussions about TD4 very soon Tropical Storm Debby.

Thread #1

Thread #2

[WindRunner]

(click for larger image)

Quikscat from 3 and a half hours ago . . . shows several 50kt barbs with one 55kt, and only on the eastern half of the circulation. Probably somewhat rain contaminated and moreso in the southern half of the circ, but this is definately a TS.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This needs to be upgraded to a tropical storm. Just for the face value of it.

[Derek Ortt]

No reason to upgrade before 11. If it is a storm, it is barely one at that

[Cyclenall]

First % chance of Tropical Depression 4 becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 90%
Hurricane: 47%
Category 2 hurricane: 20%
Category 3 hurricane: 5%
Category 4 hurricane: 1%
Category 5 hurricane: Below 1%

[CrazyC83]

My estimated chance of Tropical Depression 4 becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: >98%
Hurricane: 70%
Category 2 hurricane: 50%
Category 3 hurricane: 30%
Category 4 hurricane: 15%
Category 5 hurricane: 2%

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is based on my option...

With a well defined LLC and deep convection right over it...This thing is very likely a tropical storm. 3.0 out of cimss or around 43-45 knots. Quickscat data shows some 35 knot winds...Windscat shows 35 to 40 knot winds. This system is set by me to 35 knots.

Winds
now 35 knots
6 40 knots
12 40 knots
24 45 knots
36 50 knots
48 55 knots
60 55 knots
72 60 knots

I don't expect a very fast strengthing...The system should turn into cooler SST's and more dry around 24 to 48 hours. Then around 48 to 72 hours moves into some what warmer waters.

[Stephanie]

The storm has a nice outflow to it already or at least "shape".

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Floater from Rmas has been relocated over it. Just a few shots but this looks to be located in the convection. Very organized system. Seems to be moving just north of west.

[hawkeh]

Its looking good tonight looks like a TS to me.

[SouthFloridawx]

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006


BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 27.5W 0R ABOUT
210 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 22/2100
UTC MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. A LARGE AMOUNT STABLE AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS N OF THE
CYCLONE. SOME OF THIS AIR IS WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION OF
THE DEPRESSION SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS BREAKING
AWAY FROM THE ITCZ AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY.
CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 27W-29W.
VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST EVEN THOUGH A PATCH OF
COOLER WATERS IS AHEAD. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC.

[Windtalker1]

What happened to the NorthWest movement the models were saying it would take?

[LAwxrgal]

What happened to the NorthWest movement the models were saying it would take?

It will come, it will come, if not now in a few days when it feels the influence of the weakness in the high...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Just a few frames which are jumping back in forth. Looking at it more seems to be west-northwest. I will wait intill it switchs over to get a better judgement.

[Windtalker1]

What happened to the NorthWest movement the models were saying it would take?

It will come, it will come, if not now in a few days when it feels the influence of the weakness in the high...

and if the High builds back in?

[willjnewton]

can someone show me a another updated colorfull Infrared satelite imagery of this system or storm??, okay, thankyou and do you all still expect this system to be Fish Or affect the western landmasses in the coming weeks???, like what does the forecast models take this system??

[cycloneye]

can someone show me a another updated colorfull Infrared satelite imagery of this system or storm??, okay, thankyou and do you all still expect this system to be Fish Or affect the western landmasses in the coming weeks???, like what does the forecast models take this system??

[cycloneye]

22/2345 UTC 14.6N 28.0W T2.5/2.5 04L -- Atlantic Ocean


Hello Debby?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You better believe it cycloneye.

[SouthFloridawx]

22/2345 UTC 14.6N 28.0W T2.5/2.5 04L -- Atlantic Ocean


Hello Debby?

yep