12z WRF/ETA develops a Low in Eastern Gulf.

[Extremeweatherguy]

seems like whatever it is, it is moving toward N.O.

What's moving toward N.O.? I don't see anything like that looking at the NAM.

oh yeah, you are right. I was accidentally looking at the old run of the NAM which brought this closer to N.O.

[Dean4Storms]

It looks to be taking it inland near Panama City area. Something to keep an eye on and from the looks of it, it will have to begin to take shape by Wed. Nite or Thur. at the latest.

[Noles2006]

I'd love a moderate TS here in the 'handle, but nothing more.

[PTPatrick]

Hey Noles...I can remember ebing very excited about a MINIMAL TS when I was at FSU back in 2001...a little TS named Allison. I was so pissed throughout the day that FSU was not canceling classes the following day with Allison spinning up so tightly that morning over the bootheel of Louisiana. I was at school all day and worked until about 6 that night, at which point the rain and wind got bad enough that my boss let everyone go. I got home in blinding rain and very wind conditions. I was sitting on my couch watching them report that flash flooding was occuring, if memory serves, Tallhassee had gotten about 10 inches in 6 hours. About that time water was coming under my door, into the foyer...10 minutes later I was wading in 8 inches of mucky brown funk water trying to save my stuff. Thank god that was the worst and the water went down in that same hour, but only after my car, and apartment were flooding. It was miserable. I think a kid even died when his car was sucked into a storm drain...I drove past the drain the next day and realized that the bars around it 8 feet high...

Needless to say the minimal TS still fascinate me, but I am all to aware of the potential for devastation even with that...

Interestingly Tallahassee was never under any sort of tropical warning for that storm.

[LAwxrgal]

^ Yeah, agreed. Allison put 3 feet of water in my apartment in Thibodaux, LA... I had to move out... and ended up back home

[Rainband]

If that verifies we are going to get at least some good rain here in West Florida.

[Noles2006]

PTP - Yeah, I remember that day. I was a SR at Wakulla High and was on my way to graduating and heading on to FSU to major in meteorology [which didn't work out... I'm now in accounting]. I'm well aware of the power of storms and the potential for devastation [although you guys in LA know it much better than I do] as last year Dennis created a 13 foot storm surge at my parents' house in Shell Point and they lost their vehicles (but no damage to the house, it's elevated... and thank goodness for insurance!). That said, I'd still like to experience another (fast moving) TS... but nothing more.

[Dean4Storms]

Lets hope that if anything does form that it gets no stronger than a TS, but with those SST's out there near 89 degrees and the liklihood that intensity would be conservative at best I'd just be fine with a cold one and a little shower.

[TampaFl]

If that verifies we are going to get at least some good rain here in West Florida.

Agree Rainband, we sure could use a couple of "wet " days around here to help fill up the resivior which is only at 10 billion gallons instead of the normal 15 billion gallons for this time of year due to the dry spring & summer. .





Robert

[miamicanes177]

00Z NAM still shows some type of tropical trouble hitting florida.
84 hours

[caneman]

00Z NAM still shows some type of tropical trouble hitting florida.
84 hours

And look what is in on the coast of the Yucatan. Probably the West Atlantic invest.

[bayoubebe]

But, what about this post??

"[quote="Stormcenter"]The conditions in the GOM and NW Carribean are not favorable at all right now for anything to develop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html[/q "

You people confuse an ameteur such as myself.

Or, I guess I confuse myself?

[ronjon]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
220 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY).
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SAGGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH TO SOUTHERN AL & GA TODAY...HELPING INITIATE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT MORE WEST...BUT STILL DOES
ROTATE SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE CWA. THEN THE NAM BEGINS ITS
TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...WINDING IT UP
& BRINGING A GOOD SYSTEM ASHORE FRIDAY. GFS HAS NOTHING
INITIALLY...BUT DOES SHOW A WEAK CIRCULATION TOWARD FRIDAY. WE DO
KNOW WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL REACH THE CWA WITH THE NW UPSTREAM FLOW. THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE UPPER GULF OF MEX WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN & GET ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER WEST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST & THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST WILL BE OVER N FL & THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX. BUT THE NAM IS GENERATING TOO MUCH ENERGY WITH THE LOW...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BELIEVABLE.

[ronjon]

The full animated 06Z NAM run for today. Still indicating development in GOM headed for Big Bend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Dean4Storms]

It does look unlikely at this point, but we'll just have too watch it.

[bucman1]

Why does it seem unlikely?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I think it seems quite likely. Our local mets are picking up on the possible formation of a tropical system from the ULL reaching the surface. With the extrememly warm water temps, anything that makes it to the surface could spin up very quickly. We have to keep a watchful eye on this possibility...especially with teh proximity to land. Anything that does whip up could be impacting lives in a very short time.

[Acral]

Definately something to watch. I think tomorrow's models will give us a better idea of the potential. The warm SST's are all well and good, but the shear (assuming it is as strong as some products estimate) could spin whatever this "something something" is right back down.

In any event, looks like a wet one coming.

[bayoubebe]

The full animated 06Z NAM run for today. Still indicating development in GOM headed for Big Bend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I tried to click on that link a few times: "cannot find server"

[tailgater]

The full animated 06Z NAM run for today. Still indicating development in GOM headed for Big Bend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I tried to click on that link a few times: "cannot find server"

It's working for me bebe, as for your earlier post about Upper level level conditions favorable or not , it kinda depends on when and which models you look at and sometimes the interpretation of the poster.