TD Debby E Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #D

[willjnewton]

and if the forecast models Remains key word Remains westward than we can very much party.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_04.gif
The models are fairly unanimous on a track out to sea.

[Recurve]

At this point I guess BAMM and BAMD, but moreso BAMM, are worth looking at. Both have a strong northward component to 48 and 72 hours, with the center reaching as far north as 26 N in 72 hours. That's about even with Miami at only about 44 W.

48 hrs 72 hours
BAMM 22.5N 38.8W 26.0N 43.5W 29.3N 46.4W 32.5N 46.1W

There's a welcome fishyness to that track. Until it builds, higher level winds won't be as much of a steering factor, so I've heard told. Current steering at the 72 hour point would be moving it back SW, but nothing's static of course.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

The deep steering layer graphic now shows a path between highs that could let it slip up and into the westerlies. That's current though.
The surface to 700mb steering level at 28 N 15W looks strongish steering /sheer from southwest. The more of that the better for it to gain north motion and reduce the chance of tracking toward the islands or the southeast.

Is there a layer wind analysis forecast model output. Or do you just look at GFS for that?

<<Observations and descriptions above are amateur, not official professional weather analysis or prediction -- may contain uncorrected errors; seek your own information.>>

[Stratosphere747]

*sigh*

Some of yall are looking at models from 8am..

Look at the ones SFwx posted....

[NONAME]

Wow the Circulation of Debby Is amazing it huge.

[Recurve]

People in the islands and southeast are unlikely to be in a festive mood if the storm itself shows a westward track.

[willjnewton]

but even the ones southflorida wx posted the GfdL still has seem to be trending more westward...or westnorthwestward thats what it looks like to me, if you all agree

[Weatherfreak14]

People in the islands and southeast are unlikely to be in a festive mood if the storm itself shows a westward track.

People in NC i think might have a chace of this and Im supposed to be there this time next week.

[NFLDART]

TD 4 looks fairly healthy on last sat pass.

[cycloneye]

Ok Folks,I put TD#4 again at the title of thread because I will go with the official word from NHC.This means although the SSD and Air Force sat estimates are of 2,5/2.5 which is tropical storm status and the models iniciate at 35 kts and 1003 mbs,I prefer to wait for the official information and that is the 11 PM AST Advisory.

[JonathanBelles]

why was the title changed back?

[cycloneye]

why was the title changed back?

[Recurve]

Ok Folks,I put TD#4 again at the title of thread because I will go with the official word from NHC.This means although the SSD and Air Force sat estimates are of 2,5/2.5 which is tropical storm status and the models iniciate at 35 kts and 1003 mbs,I prefer to wait for the official information and that is the 11 PM AST Advisory.

Good move; it's best <<UNOFFICIAL comment>>

[WindRunner]

So is this now the official policy? I know that this is what we did with Alberto and Chris this year, but I know that last year the title usually went with the models.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

why not include "00Z Models Init=35kts, TS Debby Soon" in the title, still calling it TD #4?

[cycloneye]

So is this now the official policy? I know that this is what we did with Alberto and Chris this year, but I know that last year the title usually went with the models.

But not always the models are right on iniciating on intenstry,and I learned from past years when sometimes it occured.It's better wait for the very official word than letting spread information that may not be correct.

[WindRunner]

So is this now the official policy? I know that this is what we did with Alberto and Chris this year, but I know that last year the title usually went with the models.

But not always the models are right on iniciating on intenstry,and I learned from past years when sometimes it occured.It's better wait for the very official word than letting spread information that may not be correct.

Oh yes, I agree with this wait. I just wanted to know for future reference.

[cycloneye]

By the way NRL still has it as TD.

[Recurve]

So is this now the official policy? I know that this is what we did with Alberto and Chris this year, but I know that last year the title usually went with the models.

Not sure "models" is right. Didn't expect topics to be "upgraded" based on models. Observations, yes....but you probably didn't mean that...
There really is no TS unless NHC says there is. There may be a separate pure scientific sense that comes out in post analysis, but here it's gotta be simpler to use only the official name for whatever it is.

sorry for the interruption, back to the swirling blob named, as of this official moment, TD4 >>>>

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Theres no way its a td...In it gots data to back it up. How much more doe's it need?