Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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- SouthFloridawx
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- cycloneye
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TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED WITH BROAD LOW-MID
CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED ABOUT THE AXIS. A LOW-MID LEVEL SWIRL IS
STILL EVIDENT ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10.5N. DESPITE ITS
STRUCTURE...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL AND CONFINED WITHIN
THE ITCZ. THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 47W-51W.
From 8 PM Discussion.
WAVE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED WITH BROAD LOW-MID
CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED ABOUT THE AXIS. A LOW-MID LEVEL SWIRL IS
STILL EVIDENT ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10.5N. DESPITE ITS
STRUCTURE...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL AND CONFINED WITHIN
THE ITCZ. THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 47W-51W.
From 8 PM Discussion.
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SouthFloridawx wrote:If this upper level low does move southward and into the NW caribbean. Upper Level winds will be unfavorable for cyclone formation.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html
ULL north of Hisp moving south? I believe thats what I am seeing though it looks to weakening some.
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- HurricaneMaster_PR
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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060823 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060823 0000 060823 1200 060824 0000 060824 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.8N 48.7W 10.1N 51.1W 10.5N 53.0W 10.7N 54.7W
BAMM 9.8N 48.7W 10.3N 51.1W 10.9N 53.2W 11.4N 55.1W
A98E 9.8N 48.7W 10.1N 51.9W 10.5N 54.9W 11.1N 57.5W
LBAR 9.8N 48.7W 10.2N 51.9W 10.8N 55.0W 11.3N 58.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060825 0000 060826 0000 060827 0000 060828 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 56.2W 12.0N 58.8W 13.3N 61.6W 14.4N 64.7W
BAMM 12.2N 56.8W 14.1N 59.4W 15.8N 62.3W 17.0N 65.7W
A98E 11.5N 59.8W 12.8N 63.8W 14.2N 67.4W 16.0N 71.5W
LBAR 11.7N 61.3W 13.2N 66.6W 14.6N 70.5W 16.9N 72.1W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 49KTS 52KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 49KTS 52KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 48.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 45.5W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 42.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060823 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060823 0000 060823 1200 060824 0000 060824 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.8N 48.7W 10.1N 51.1W 10.5N 53.0W 10.7N 54.7W
BAMM 9.8N 48.7W 10.3N 51.1W 10.9N 53.2W 11.4N 55.1W
A98E 9.8N 48.7W 10.1N 51.9W 10.5N 54.9W 11.1N 57.5W
LBAR 9.8N 48.7W 10.2N 51.9W 10.8N 55.0W 11.3N 58.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060825 0000 060826 0000 060827 0000 060828 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 56.2W 12.0N 58.8W 13.3N 61.6W 14.4N 64.7W
BAMM 12.2N 56.8W 14.1N 59.4W 15.8N 62.3W 17.0N 65.7W
A98E 11.5N 59.8W 12.8N 63.8W 14.2N 67.4W 16.0N 71.5W
LBAR 11.7N 61.3W 13.2N 66.6W 14.6N 70.5W 16.9N 72.1W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 49KTS 52KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 49KTS 52KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 48.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 45.5W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 42.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- cycloneye
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DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060823 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060823 0000 060823 1200 060824 0000 060824 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.8N 48.7W 10.1N 51.1W 10.5N 53.0W 10.7N 54.7W
BAMM 9.8N 48.7W 10.3N 51.1W 10.9N 53.2W 11.4N 55.1W
A98E 9.8N 48.7W 10.1N 51.9W 10.5N 54.9W 11.1N 57.5W
LBAR 9.8N 48.7W 10.2N 51.9W 10.8N 55.0W 11.3N 58.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060825 0000 060826 0000 060827 0000 060828 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 56.2W 12.0N 58.8W 13.3N 61.6W 14.4N 64.7W
BAMM 12.2N 56.8W 14.1N 59.4W 15.8N 62.3W 17.0N 65.7W
A98E 11.5N 59.8W 12.8N 63.8W 14.2N 67.4W 16.0N 71.5W
LBAR 11.7N 61.3W 13.2N 66.6W 14.6N 70.5W 16.9N 72.1W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 49KTS 52KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 49KTS 52KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 48.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 45.5W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 42.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
00:00z Models for 97L.
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060823 0000 060823 1200 060824 0000 060824 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.8N 48.7W 10.1N 51.1W 10.5N 53.0W 10.7N 54.7W
BAMM 9.8N 48.7W 10.3N 51.1W 10.9N 53.2W 11.4N 55.1W
A98E 9.8N 48.7W 10.1N 51.9W 10.5N 54.9W 11.1N 57.5W
LBAR 9.8N 48.7W 10.2N 51.9W 10.8N 55.0W 11.3N 58.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060825 0000 060826 0000 060827 0000 060828 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 56.2W 12.0N 58.8W 13.3N 61.6W 14.4N 64.7W
BAMM 12.2N 56.8W 14.1N 59.4W 15.8N 62.3W 17.0N 65.7W
A98E 11.5N 59.8W 12.8N 63.8W 14.2N 67.4W 16.0N 71.5W
LBAR 11.7N 61.3W 13.2N 66.6W 14.6N 70.5W 16.9N 72.1W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 49KTS 52KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 49KTS 52KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 48.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 45.5W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 42.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

00:00z Models for 97L.
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- SWFLA_CANE
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944
ABNT20 KNHC 230229
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM DEBBY...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF IMPROVING ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
ABNT20 KNHC 230229
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM DEBBY...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF IMPROVING ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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MGC wrote:The ULL north of Hispaniola appears to be opening up. Still looks to be a good bit of shear over the Lesser Antilles, WCAB and GOM. This disturbance don't look all that great this evening. I give the probability of becoming a named system at less than 25%.....MGC
Carew to up those percentages now

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- cycloneye
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I better watch more closely this here.
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HOLY COW! In less than a day this became an Invest and in less than a day the NHC mention possible TD formation.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
MGC wrote:The ULL north of Hispaniola appears to be opening up. Still looks to be a good bit of shear over the Lesser Antilles, WCAB and GOM. This disturbance don't look all that great this evening. I give the probability of becoming a named system at less than 25%.....MGC
5-10 knots of shear is not that bad currently with most of GOM showing a decreasing shear tendency over the next 24hrs. That ULL over Mexico will be long gone by the time anything enters the GOM. But since we are giving percentages I will play.....I give 45% of becoming a named system but not until it get in the carib.....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
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ROCK wrote:MGC wrote:The ULL north of Hispaniola appears to be opening up. Still looks to be a good bit of shear over the Lesser Antilles, WCAB and GOM. This disturbance don't look all that great this evening. I give the probability of becoming a named system at less than 25%.....MGC
5-10 knots of shear is not that bad currently with most of GOM showing a decreasing shear tendency over the next 24hrs. That ULL over Mexico will be long gone by the time anything enters the GOM. But since we are giving percentages I will play.....I give 45% of becoming a named system but not until it get in the carib.....![]()
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
man, and I posted before the update....I am getting the hang of this weather stuff...

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NHC TWO 10:30 pm EST wrote:944
ABNT20 KNHC 230229
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF IMPROVING ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
I don't see the NHC saying it's appears favorable for a depression to form very often this season in the TWO's. They must think it has a good chance at forming.
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